Cotton and Products Update

An Expert's View about Textiles, Apparel and Accessories in Pakistan

Posted on: 16 Dec 2011

Pakistan’s MY 2011/12 cotton production is revised down to 9.4 million bales, 14 percent lower than the annual projection of 10.9 million bales but 8 percent higher than 2010/11 cotton production. Import forecast is increased to 2.5 million bales and export is reduced by 50 percent to 400,000 bales.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Voluntary Public - Date: 11/29/2011 GAIN Report Number: Pakistan Post: Islamabad Cotton and Products Update Report Categories: Cotton and Products Approved By: David L. Wolf Prepared By: Mohammad Shafiq Ur Rehman Report Highlights: Pakistan?s MY 2011/12 cotton production is revised down to 9.4 million bales, 14 percent lower than the annual projection of 10.9 million bales but 8 percent higher than 2010/11 cotton production. Import forecast is increased to 2.5 million bales and export is reduced by 50 percent to 400,000 bales. Ending stocks are now estimated at 2.9 million bales due to increase in imports. MY 2011/12 cotton consumption is forecast at 11 million bales. General Information: Post?s forecast of MY 2011/12 cotton production was reduced by 1.5 million bales to 9.4 million bales, 14 percent lower than the annual projection of 10.9 million bales. The latest estimate is 8 percent higher than the last year?s flood reduced crop of 8.7 million bales. This year excessive rain/ floods especially in cotton growing areas of Sindh badly affected the crop causing severe damage to around 300,000 hectares of standing cotton. FAS Islamabad estimate a loss of 1.5 million bales with considerable damage to the quality of cotton produced in affected areas i.e. around 3.5 million bales. Estimates are that 50 percent of the remaining produce of both seed cotton and cotton seed is unusable for industrial purposes. There is a growing concern that the mixing of poor quality cotton is likely to taint the quality of total cotton produced in Sindh province. Based on lower local production, the import forecast is increased from 1.6 to 2.5 million bales. Export forecast is accordingly reduced by 50 percent to 400,000 bales. Severe energy crises and the prevailing law and order conditions have slowed down the industrial operations of all textile sectors including spinning, weaving, printing, processing, sizing, towel manufacturing and garment manufacturing. Keeping in view this factor the mill use was reduced by 400,000 bales. Despite a significant reduction in 2011/12 cotton crop and other crises Pakistan?s textile consumption is estimated at 11 million bales. The Pakistan textile sector, being the major source of employment and foreign exchange earner, is positioned to benefit from enhanced supplies and modest prices in the international market. This sector is also benefitting from the Government?s free trade policy for cotton with no quantitative restrictions or duties on either imports or exports. Domestic cotton production augmented with significant cotton imports is likely to result in higher ending stocks. A rebound in cotton stocks is foreseen during 2011/12 replenishing domestic inventory, estimated at 2.9 million bales, that was reduced to a record 2.5 million bales during the previous season. Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Commodity, Cotton (480 lb bales) Cotton P 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 akistan Market Year Begin: Aug Market Year Begin: Aug Market Year Begin: Aug 2009 2010 2011 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 0 0 0 0 0 3,300 Area Harvested 3,000 2,980 2,900 2,650 3,200 3,000 Beginning Stocks 3,458 4,688 3,082 3,958 2,557 2,500 Production 9,600 9,920 8,800 8,700 10,000 9,400 Imports 1,574 1,800 1,450 1,242 1,500 2,500 MY Imports from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 14,632 16,408 13,332 13,900 14,057 14,400 Exports 725 730 500 700 450 400 Use 10,800 11,695 10,250 10,675 10,300 11,075 Loss 25 25 25 25 25 25 Total Dom. Consumption 10,825 11,720 10,275 10,700 10,325 11,100 Ending Stocks 3,082 3,958 2,557 2,500 3,282 2,900 Total Distribution 14,632 16,408 13,332 13,900 14,057 14,400 Stock to Use % 27 32 24 23 31 26 Yield 697 725 661 714 680 619 TS=TD 0 0 0 0 0 0
Posted: 16 December 2011

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