Oilseeds and Products Annual

An Expert's View about Cereals, Leguminous Crops, Oil Seeds in Peru

Posted on: 23 Mar 2012

Soybean meal imports into Peru are forecast at 1.030 MMT in MY 2012, a slight increase of 22,000 MT compared to the previous year.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 2/21/2012 GAIN Report Number: Peru Oilseeds and Products Annual Annual Approved By: Emiko Purdy Prepared By: Gaspar E. Nolte Report Highlights: Soybean meal imports into Peru are forecast at 1.030 MMT in MY 2012, a slight increase of 22,000 MT compared to the previous year. U.S. soy exports dropped 80 percent, to only 20,659 MT. Fishmeal production for CY 2012 is estimated at 1.315 MMT, remaining constant as the previous year. Total fish catch for reduction in CY 2011 was 6 MMT, about a ten percent increase compared to the previous year Executive Summary: Soybean meal imports into Peru are forecast at 1.030 MMT in MY 2012, a slight increase of 22,000 MT compared to the previous year. U.S. soy exports dropped 80 percent, to only 20,659 MT. Since Peru eliminated import duties for corn, the U.S. lost the trade preference granted under the U.S.-Peru TRQ which significantly reduced corn shipments from the U.S. This was a disincentive for importing U.S. soybean meal since traders usually combine corn and soybean meal in a vessel. Due to constant pressure from anti biotechnology organizations led by the Peruvian Ministry of Environment, the Peruvian Congress approved a ten year moratorium on genetically modified crops. Implementing regulations are still pending, but this law could potentially disrupt trade since it requires a risk assessment on all imported GM products. Fishmeal production for CY 2012 is estimated at 1.315 MMT, remaining constant as the previous year. Total fish catch for reduction in CY 2011 was 6 MMT, about a ten percent increase compared to the previous year. Favorable weather conditions, especially water temperature, caused an increase on total catch which translated in more fishmeal production. Commodities: Oil, Soybean Author Defined: Outlook Import Trade Matrix (Metric Tons) Country Peru Commodity Oil, Soy Time Period CY 2011 Imports from: U.S. 28,700 Others Argentina 267,681 Bolivia 10,304 Brazil 8,639 Total for Others 286,624 Others not Listed 74 Grand Total 315,398 Units: Metric Tons Soybean oil imports are forecast at 340,000 MT in CY 2012, an 8 percent increase compared to the previous year. Imports in CY 2011 were 315,398 MT, of which 85 percent was imported from Argentina. The U.S. soybean oil exports represented 9 percent of the Peruvian market share. Soybean oil consumption in CY 2011 was 355,000 MT and is expected to continue growing as Peru?s economy expands. Peru?s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow between five and seven percent per year for the next three years. Imported crude soybean oil is refined and bottled in Peru for retail sale. Peru does not produce any soybeans, and the limited crushing capacity is used to produce full fat soybean meal for feed. Commodities: Meal, Soybean Author Defined: Outlook Meal, Soybean Peru 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Jan 2010 Market Year Begin: May 2011 Market Year Begin: Jan 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Crush 2 2 2 2 2 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 1 1 1 1 1 Beginning Stocks 54 11 26 8 19 Production 2 1 2 1 2 MY Imports 1,110 985 1,150 1,008 1,030 MY Imp. from U.S. 50 105 50 21 150 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 1,166 997 1,178 1,017 1,051 MY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 1,140 989 1,150 998 1,025 Total Dom. Cons. 1,140 989 1,150 998 1,025 Ending Stocks 26 8 28 19 26 Total Distribution 1,166 997 1,178 1,017 1,051 1000 MT, PERCENT Soybean meal imports into Peru are forecast at 1.030 MMT in MY 2012, a slight increase of 22,000 MT compared to the previous year. A very dynamic poultry industry will continue driving soybean imports and consumption in Peru. With an estimated per capita consumption of 36 kilograms in CY 2011, poultry meat is a staple product in the Peruvian diet. Peru?s 490 million chicken-per-year poultry market is the major user of soybean meal (meal constitutes about 12 percent of broiler rations). Poultry meat continues to be one the cheapest sources of protein in the Peruvian diet, total consumption was 880,000 MT in CY 2011. There are about 20 formal poultry operations in Peru, which control around a thousand farms. Total market size for CY 2011 was estimated at $1.45 billion and it is expected to increase two percent in CY 2012. Total soybean meal imports in CY 2011 were 1,007,598 MT. Paraguay continued to be the leading soybean meal exporter to Peru in CY 2011 with 38 percent of the market share. U.S. soy exports dropped 80 percent, to only 20,659 MT. Since Peru eliminated import duties for corn, the U.S. lost the trade preference granted under the U.S.-Peru TRQ which significantly reduced corn shipments from the U.S. This was a disincentive for importing U.S. soybean meal since traders usually combine corn and soybean meal in a vessel. Soybean meal imports from all origins into Peru are duty free. Biotechnology Due to constant pressure from anti biotechnology organizations led by the Peruvian Ministry of Environment, the Peruvian Congress approved a ten year moratorium on genetically modified crops. Implementing regulations are still pending, but this law could potentially disrupt trade since it requires a risk assessment on all imported GM products. The moratorium law also eliminated the biosafety protocol, drafted by the Ministry of Agriculture, which established a legal framework on production, research and trade of GM products. The biosafety protocol had been developed and cleared by the Ministries of Agriculture and Environment The Peruvian Consumer Code includes mandatory labeling for genetically modified (GM) products. Currently, the regulation for this Code is being drafted. If the regulation is finally approved, the GOP will have a major challenge enforcing it since there are over 30,000 items containing GM products on the shelves of Peruvian markets. Import Trade Matrix (Metric Tons) Country Peru Commodity Meal, Soy Time Period CY 2011 Imports from: U.S. 20,659 Others Paraguay 386,397 Bolivia 289,862 Argentina 210,944 Brazil 99,711 Total for Others 986,914 Others not Listed 25 Grand Total 1,007,598 Units: Metric Tons Commodities: Meal, Fish Production: Meal, Fish Peru 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Jan 2011 Market Year Begin: Jan 2012 Market Year Begin: Jan 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Catch For Reduction 6,750 5,400 6,750 6,000 6,000 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0 0 0 0 0 Beginning Stocks 32 32 22 14 12 Production 1,255 1,084 1,400 1,315 1,315 MY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 1,287 1,116 1,422 1,329 1,327 MY Exports 1,250 1,090 1,385 1,303 1,300 MY Exp. to EU 380 196 380 205 220 Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 15 12 15 14 14 Total Dom. Cons. 15 12 15 14 14 Ending Stocks 22 14 22 12 13 Total Distribution 1,287 1,116 1,422 1,329 1,327 1000 MT, PERCENT Fishmeal production for CY 2012 is estimated at 1.315 MMT, remaining constant as the previous year. Total fish catch for reduction in CY 2011 was 6 MMT, about a ten percent increase compared to the previous year. Favorable weather conditions, especially water temperature, caused an increase on total catch which translated in more fishmeal production. Peru?s fishing industry is tightly controlled by the government. In an effort to reduce over-fishing and enhance the sustainability of Peruvian fisheries, the government used to establish a fishing quota, at the beginning it was 8.5 MMT per year but it was reduced to 5 MMT. Currently, the government has established individual fishing quotas per boat and individual processing licensing per plant. Additionally, the government sets fishing bans which depent on the size of the fish. Peru produces two types of fishmeal: Fair Average Quality (FAQ), with protein content between 62 and 65 percent, which is dried by direct heat, and Prime, which is indirectly dried by steam and has a protein content of 66-67 percent. International fishmeal prices in CY 2012 remained high, price of Prime meal averaged $1400 per MT compared to $700 a few years ago. Currently, total industry debt is estimated at $600 million with annual financing costs of about $180 million. This debt was generated in 1997/1998 as a result of El NiƱo weather phenomenon that drove the fish away from the Peruvian coast and halted all industrial fishing activity for 18 months. There are 90 fishmeal plants currently working in Peru. The Peruvian fishing fleet is comprised of 984 boats: 684 steel boats with storage capacity over 500 cubic meters and 300 wooden boats with storage capacity of 110 cubic meters. Total processing capacity is 7,500 MT per hour; about four times more than they are allowed to catch. Consumption: Local fishmeal consumption is insignificant and does not have a large impact on the export market. Consumption for CY 2012 is forecast at about 14,000 MT. Local consumption is expected to remain low and even decrease due to high international prices and increased demand from foreign aquaculture industries. Fish is used as a protein source in animal feed; especially shrimp farms located northern Peru. Trade: Peru?s fishmeal exports for CY 2012 are forecast at 1.3 MMT. China continued to be the leading export market for Peruvian fishmeal with 58 percent of the market share in CY 2011. Other important markets are Germany (9 percent) and Japan (7 percent). Fishmeal exports totaled $1.8 billion in CY 2011 at an average export price of $1,365 per MT. Fishmeal is Peru?s fourth largest export, after gold, copper, and oil. Export Trade Matrix (Metric Tons) Country Peru Commodity Meal, Fish Time Period CY 2011 Exports to: U.S. 852 Others China 757025 Germany 119220 Japan 96729 Chile 53918 Vietnam 46339 Total for Others 1073231 Others not Listed 229008 Grand Total 1303091 Units: Metric Tons Policy: The GOP continues to strengthen enforcement of environmental regulations, particularly to preserve the biomass. The Vice Ministry of Fisheries recently passed a decree to establish individual fishing quotas by boat. The individual quota is a result of the boat?s historic catch and its storage capacity. The GOP has also stepped up efforts to preserve fisheries resources and reduce the environmental impacts of local processing centers. As a result of strict enforcement most plants now have ?tail-water? discharge recovery and airborne particle recovery systems, both of which have led to increased processing efficiency. Plants also must pump residual water at least 13 kilometers out and 50 meters deep. Larger producers continue to invest in canning or freezing lines, to convert more of the catch to higher value products for human consumption, a trend that is expected to continue. The GOP also enforces several measures to assure the sustainability of Peruvian fisheries. These measures include the enforcement of two fishing seasons during each year as well as fishing bans implemented during the anchovy spawning seasons. These bans may vary somewhat from year to year but are usually enforced from January to mid March and from August to mid October. Other measures include: Fishing quotas. Limiting fish size to a minimum of 12 centimeters. Ensuring that the fishing net is big enough to allow small fish through. Establishment of a protected area, five miles from shore, in which no industrial fishing is allowed. Prohibition on the use of jack mackerel or horse mackerel for fishmeal. Only anchovy is allowed for industrial processing with a maximum of 11 percent of incidental fishing (species other than anchovy). Establishing fishing and processing quotas by boat and plant. Now fishing boats are only valuable if they have fishing permits. The GOP enforces these measures through satellite screening and inspection at 150 unloading points along the coast during the fishing seasons. Fish Oil Outlook Fish oil production in CY 2011 was 338,000 MT. Post forecasts production at 340,000 MT in CY 2012. Oil extraction is directly related to water temperatures and can vary significantly from year to year. Under normal weather conditions the oil extraction rate should be around 8 to 10 percent, but can drop to as low as 1 percent in unusually warm waters. Exports for CY 2012 are forecast at 320,000 MT. In 2011, Chile, Belgium and Denmark were the major importers of Peru?s fish oil. Consumption in CY 2011 is forecast at 20,000 MT. Domestic consumption will remain low due to increasing fish oil demand in other countries, especially as a feed ingredient for a growing aquaculture industry Export Trade Matrix (Metric Tons) Country Peru Commodity Oil, Fish Time Period CY 2011 Exports to: U.S. 22,556 Others Denmark 76,272 Chile 53,314 Belgium 46,148 Canada 40,010 China 26,871 Total for Others 242,615 Others not Listed 67,790 Grand Total 332,961 Units: Metric Tons
Posted: 23 March 2012

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