Grain and Feed Update 2012

An Expert's View about Crops and Support Services in the Philippines

Posted on: 28 Nov 2012

After a spike in feed demand drove MY 11/12 wheat imports up 21 percent to 3.97 MMT, Post forecasts MY 12/13 imports will decline by 17 percent.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 10/29/2012 GAIN Report Number: Philippines Grain and Feed Update 2012/13 Philippine Grain and Feed Situation and Outlook Approved By: Bill Verzani Prepared By: Perfecto G. Corpuz Report Highlights: After a spike in feed demand drove MY 11/12 wheat imports up 21 percent to 3.97 MMT, Post forecasts MY 12/13 imports will decline by 17 percent to 3.3 MMT due to ample beginning stocks and a slowdown in feed consumption. MY 12/13 milling wheat consumption, however, is forecast up one percent to 2.3 MMT, due to the continued strength of the Philippine economy and as a result of campaign-related spending on food leading up to national elections in May 2013. Post forecasts MY12/13 corn imports will decline by 45 percent to 100,000 MT as a result of diminished global supply, increased domestic production and ample feedwheat stocks. MY12/13 overall rice imports (including undocumented shipments) are forecast to remain flat at 1.5 MMT as improved production (under the Philippines’ drive for rice self-sufficiency) offsets a slight uptick in consumption. Post: Manila Wheat: Unusually strong feed demand drove MY 11/12 wheat imports up 21 percent to 3.97 MMT. Post forecasts MY 12/13 wheat imports will decline by 17 percent to 3.3 MMT due to ample beginning stocks and a slowdown in feed consumption. MY 12/13 milling wheat consumption, however, is forecast up by one percent to 2.3 MMT, due to the continued strength of the Philippine economy and as a result of campaign-related spending on food leading up to national elections in May 2013. Wheat (and wheat flour) imports in MY11/12 and TY 11/12 were pared down based on export data from the GTA. Noteworthy is the 78 percent increase in wheat flour imports from 92,000 MT in MY10/11 to 163,000 MT in MY11/12. Turkish flour accounted for 79 percent of overall wheat flour imports in MY11/12. Wheat P 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 hilippines Market Year Begin: Jul Market Year Begin: Jul Market Year Begin: Jul 2010 2011 2012 USDA New USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post Official Post Area Harvested 0 0 0 0 0 0 Beginning Stocks 645 645 675 675 931 859 Production 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imports 3,271 3,271 4,020 3,973 3,200 3,300 TY Imports 3,271 3,271 4,020 3,973 3,200 3,300 TY Imp. from U.S. 1,742 1,742 2,147 2,147 0 1,900 Total Supply 3,916 3,916 4,695 4,648 4,131 4,159 MY Exports 41 41 39 39 50 50 TY Exports 41 41 39 39 50 50 Feed and Residual 950 950 1,475 1,475 1,100 1,100 FSI Consumption 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,275 2,300 2,300 Total Consumption 3,200 3,200 3,725 3,750 3,400 3,400 Ending Stocks 675 675 931 859 681 709 Total Distribution 3,916 3,916 4,695 4,648 4,131 4,159 Corn: High global corn prices in 2012 are expected to result in increased MY 12/13 domestic production. Adequate feedwheat stocks entering the year are also likely to have a dampening effect on import demand. As a result, Post forecasts MY12/13 imports will decline by 45 percent to 100,000 MT. Corn imports in MY11/12 and TY11/12 were adjusted downwards based on partial GTA exporter reports. Corn P 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 hilippines Market Year Begin: Jul Market Year Begin: Jul Market Year Begin: May 2010 2011 2012 USDA New USDA New USDA New Post Official Post Official Post Official Area Harvested 2,633 2,633 2,556 2,556 2,585 2,620 Beginning Stocks 559 559 692 692 622 604 Production 7,271 7,271 7,130 7,130 7,200 7,350 MY Imports 62 62 200 182 150 100 TY Imports 43 43 250 158 150 100 TY Imp. from U.S. 2 2 0 26 0 20 Total Supply 7,892 7,892 8,022 8,004 7,972 8,054 MY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 TY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 Feed and Residual 5,100 5,100 5,300 5,300 5,400 5,400 FSI Consumption 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,000 2,000 Total Consumption 7,200 7,200 7,400 7,400 7,400 7,400 Ending Stocks 692 692 622 604 572 654 Total Distribution 7,892 7,892 8,022 8,004 7,972 8,054 Rice: Rice production estimates for MY11/12 were slightly raised based on the most recent grains report from the Philippine Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS). BAS projects rice output at 17.8 MMT in CY2012. This is substantially lower than the18.46 MMT target of the Philippine Department of Agriculture (DA) under its rice self-sufficiency road map. MY12/13 overall rice imports (including undocumented shipments) are forecast to remain flat at 1.5 MMT as improved domestic production (under the Philippines’ drive for rice self-sufficiency) offsets a slight uptick in consumption. Rice, Milled P 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 hilippines Market Year Begin: Jul 2010 Market Year Begin: Jul 2011 Market Year Begin: May 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post 3.69456714 3.712601 3.74678112 Area Harvested 4,528 4,528 4,579 4579 4,660 4,660 Beginning Stocks 3,520 3,520 2,459 2,459 1,809 1,819 Milled Production 10,539 10,539 10,700 10,710 11,000 11,000 Rough Production 16,729 16,729 16,984 17,000 17,460 17,460 Milling Rate (.9999) 6,300 6,300 6,300 6,300 6,300 6,300 MY Imports 1,300 1,300 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 TY Imports 1,200 1,200 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 TY Imp. from U.S. 6 6 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 15,359 15,359 14,659 14,669 14,309 14,319 MY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 TY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 Consumption and Residual 12,900 12,900 12,850 12,850 12,950 12,950 Ending Stocks 2,459 2,459 1,809 1,819 1,359 1,369 Total Distribution 15,359 15,359 14,659 14,669 14,309 14,319
Posted: 28 November 2012

See more from Crops and Support Services in the Philippines

Expert Views    
Grain and Feed Annual   By Foreign Agricultural Service
Grain and Feed Situation and Outlook   By Foreign Agricultural Service
Biotechnology Situation and Outlook   By Foreign Agricultural Service
Oilseeds Situation and Outlook   By Foreign Agricultural Service
Agricultural Biotechnology Annual 2012   By Foreign Agricultural Service