Coffee Situation and Outlook

An Expert's View about Beverages in the Philippines

Last updated: 11 Jul 2011

The Philippines is a relatively small coffee producer with output less than one percent of global production. Philippine coffee production in 2010/11 is expected to decline between 5-6 percent to 25 TMT in green bean equivalent due to some shift from coffee farming to rubber and bananas in Mindanao.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: GAIN Report Number: Philippines Coffee Annual Philippine Coffee Situation and Outlook Approved By: Philip A. Shull Prepared By: Pia A. Ang Report Highlights: The Philippines is a relatively small coffee producer with output less than one percent of global production. Philippine coffee production in 2010/11 is expected to decline between 5-6 percent to 25 TMT in green bean equivalent due to some shift from coffee farming to rubber and bananas in Mindanao. The Philippines is a net coffee importer, 2010/11 imports of coffee beans are expected to decline but will still remain at over half of total supply due to limited domestic production. Soluble coffee imports on the other hand, particularly from Indonesia, rose tremendously from 19.3 TMT to over 40.2 TMT last year and are forecast to continue to increase. Commodities: Coffee, Green Production: Coffee production in Market Year 2010/11 (July/June) is projected to drop by as much as 5-6 percent due to a continued shift by Mindanao farmers from coffee to higher value commodities. Chopping down of non-productive coffee trees, as well as conversion of coffee farms to non-farm use has also been reported. A reported shortage of labor for coffee harvesting in Zamboanga, due to a shift from farming to mining, has also contributed to the decline in coffee production this year. In 2010/11, the total area planted of all coffee varieties dropped by 6 percent from 131 to 122 thousand hectares due to reported conversion of coffee lands to residential areas. Coffee: Philippine Production (dried berry basis) January-December Region 2008 2009 2010 Value Million Pesos P6,205 P5,529 P5,487.90 Volume Metric Tons 97,430 96,433 94,570 Average Farmgate Price Pesos/kg P63.69 P57.33 P58 .03 Source: Bureau of Agricultural Statistics The Philippines, which lies in the coffee belt can grow four varieties of coffee: Arabica, Excelsa, Liberica and Robusta. In 2010, the total number of bearing trees dropped by 0.67 percent. The number of mature trees of Arabica went up by 0.70 percent while Robusta trees declined. 0.83%. Robusta remained the major variety comprising almost 75 percent of 2010 production. Coffee: Number of Mature Trees, Philippines January-December 2009 2010 Coffee 85,064,363 84,544,625 Arabica 13,908,200 13,999,774 Excelsa 5,959,635 5,897,929 Liberica 951,038 933,034 Robusta 64,018,201 63,488,968 Others 227,289 224,920 Source: Bureau of Agricultural Statistics In 2010, the average composite farmgate price of coffee (all varieties) was P58.03, up by 1.2 percent from the previous year due in part to the decline in local coffee production. In 2010, Robusta farmgate prices increased by 1.3 percent to P57.16/kg, while Arabica farmgate prices increased by13 percent to P67.57/kg from 2009 prices. FARMGATE PRICES OF ROBUSTA DRY BEANS (Pesos/kg) 2009 2010 January 67.67 55.48 February 66.28 58.60 March 63.71 58.46 April 61.16 60.08 May 60.88 60.41 June 60.51 42.92 July 53.13 57.04 August 51.58 54.52 September 53.29 55.20 October 49.09 55.47 November 48.30 58.45 December 50.39 60.74 Average 57.16 56.45 Source: Bureau of Agricultural Statistics FARMGATE PRICES OF ARABICA DRY BEANS (Pesos/kg) 2009 2010 January 77.76 86.46 February 77.5 87.4 March 78.4 91.23 April 50.52 95.3 May 52.48 57.12 June 52.88 54.78 July 51.88 53.73 August 52.17 54.12 September 53.15 54.53 October 50.35 65.63 November 62.85 47.61 December 62.7 62.92 Average 60.22 67.57 Source: Bureau of Agricultural Statistics Note : As of June 6, 2011, US$1=P43.21 Consumption: The Philippine economy is expected to expand by 4.8-5.8 percent this year, lower than the record 7.3 percent GDP growth achieved last year, due to a slowdown in government spending, the rise in oil prices and a possible drop in remittances from Overseas Filipinos from the Middle East and North African states. However, a significant contributor to the GDP growth is the robust business process outsourcing industry (BPO) that grew by 25 percent in 2010. Coffee is generally considered to be a household staple even among the lower economic classes. At present, soluble or instant coffee accounts for about 90 percent of all the coffee consumed in the Philippines. Domestic coffee consumption is estimated to increase slightly due to a predicted increase in overall food and beverage consumption as population and income continues to rise. The booming BPO industry which has long and varied operating hours from the normal Philippine workforce is also expected to contribute to the increase in coffee consumption. Trade: The Philippines is a net coffee importer. Trade data from the Global Trade Atlas shows that imports of coffee beans declined from 30,700 MT in 2009 to 27,000 MT in 2010. Imports are sourced largely from neighboring Asian countries such as Vietnam (54 percent); Indonesia (44 percent) and others. It is likely that not all coffee imports are always accurately captured by the official government data due to the reported robust informal trade between Indonesia and the southern island of Mindanao, where the majority of plantations are located and coffee manufacturers are operating. Imports of soluble coffee and coffee concentrates more than doubled from 19,293 MT in 2009 to 40,200 MT last year. Without significant increases in production and with continued growth in domestic consumption, coffee bean and soluble coffee imports will likely remain high at an estimated 50 percent of total annual domestic requirement. Policy: Executive Order No. 850 was signed in December 2009, lowering the Common Effective Preferential Tariff Rates for ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nation) member countries to a range of 0-5 percent. The 2010 Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariff rates for coffee have not changed from the previous year. For non-ASEAN countries such as the U.S., the tariff remains at 40 percent. Tariff Description MFN CEPT Code 09.01 Coffee, whether or not roasted or decaffeinated coffee husks and skins; coffee substitutes containing coffee in any proportion - Coffee, not roasted 0901.11 -- Not decaffeinated 0901.11.10 --- Arabica WIB or Robusta OIB A. In-Quota 30 0 B. Out-of-Quota 40 0 0901.11.90 --- Other A. In-Quota 30 0 B. Out-of-Quota 40 0 0901.12 -- Decaffeinated 0901.12.10 --- Arabica WIB or Robusta OIB A. In-Quota 40 0 B. Out-of-Quota 40 0 0901.12.90 --- Other: A. In-Quota 40 0 B. Out-of-Quota 40 0 - Coffee, roasted 0901.21 -- Not decaffeinated 0901.21.10 --- Unground A. In-Quota 40 0 B. Out-of-Quota 40 0 0901.21.20 --- Ground A. In-Quota 40 0 B. Out-of-Quota 40 0 0901.22 -- Decaffeinated 0901.22.10 --- Unground A. In-Quota 40 0 B. Out-of-Quota 40 0 0901.22.20 --- Ground A. In-Quota 40 0 B. Out-of-Quota 40 0 0901.90.00 - Other A. In-Quota 40 0 B. Out-of-Quota 40 0 Source: Tariff and Customs Code of the Philippines, 2004 & Executive Order 850 Marketing: According to analysts, specialist coffee shops in the Philippines are expected to continue growing in the coming years. Specialist coffee shops grew in terms of number of outlets, transactions and value sales. With international coffee chains gaining popularity and other specialty coffee shops following suit, more such outlets are likely to appear. The strong growth is mainly attributed to excellent consumer demand, as coffee drinking has become a very popular social activity. Coffee shops have become a status symbol for younger consumers and Filipinos, in general, have started to be more discriminating in their preferences for coffee. In the Philippines, multinational chains dominate specialist coffee shops and have experienced robust growth since the late 1990s. Popular foreign franchised specialist coffee shops include Starbucks, Seattle?s Best, The Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf, Gloria Jean?s and UCC Coffee. In addition, local coffee chains have also experienced strong growth over the past several years. Recognizing the continued growth potential for coffee shops, many Filipino companies and even growers of locally produced coffee beans have opened their own businesses. The support of the local government and agriculture sector to farmers has also helped to rejuvenate the Philippine coffee industry. Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Coffee, Green Philippines 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Jul 2009 Jul 2010 Jul 2011 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 131 131 0 126 124 Area Harvested 114 114 0 110 108 Bearing Trees 89 89 0 86 85 Non-Bearing Trees 15 15 0 15 15 Total Tree Population 104 104 0 101 100 Beginning Stocks 109 109 54 54 145 Arabica Production 35 35 35 35 35 Robusta Production 625 625 625 600 585 Other Production 25 25 25 16 14 Total Production 685 685 685 651 634 Bean Imports 385 385 400 365 365 Roast & Ground Imports 0 0 0 0 0 Soluble Imports 1,000 1,000 1,150 1,300 1,350 Total Imports 1,385 1,385 1,550 1,665 1,715 Total Supply 2,179 2,179 2,289 2,370 2,494 Bean Exports 0 0 0 0 0 Rst-Grnd Exp. 0 0 0 0 0 Soluble Exports 0 0 0 0 0 Total Exports 0 0 0 0 0 Rst,Ground Dom. Consum 125 125 125 125 125 Soluble Dom. Cons. 2,000 2,000 2,050 2,100 2,200 Domestic Use 2,125 2,125 2,175 2,225 2,325 Ending Stocks 54 54 114 145 169 Total Distribution 2,179 2,179 2,289 2,370 2,494 1000 HA, MILLION TREES, 1000 60 KG BAGS
Posted: 10 July 2011, last updated 11 July 2011

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