In 2012 Polish exports of food and agricultural products are forecast to set a new record at US$ 21 billion.
THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY
USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT
GAIN Report Number: PL1220
Record High Value of Polish Agricultural Exports in 2012
Michael Henney, Agricultural Attaché
Piotr Rucinski, Agricultural Specialist
In 2012 Polish exports of food and agricultural products are forecast to set a new record at US$ 21
billion based on several factors - favorable exchange rate for Polish zloty to Euro in the first half of the
year, rising world prices for agricultural products, increasing productivity and competitive pricing by
Polish suppliers. Comparing trade over the first six months of 2012 versus 2011, imports from the
United States increased 18 percent with the greatest growth registered in soybean meal (30 percent) and
unmanufactured tobacco (118 percent).
In 2012 the value of Polish exports of food and agricultural products is forecast to reach a historical
record of Euro 16.3 billion (US$ 21 billion). According to the Institute of Rural Economics (IRE)
Polish exports of food and agricultural products in 2012 are expected to be one billion Euros (US$ 1.29
billion) or seven percent higher than in 2011. According to the estimates of Polish Ministry of
Agriculture, exports of food and agricultural products in the first half of 2012 increased by 11 percent
and amounted to Euro 7.85 billion (US$ 10.1 billion). Although the increase of the value of Polish
exports of agricultural products in the first six months of 2012 is partly attributed to higher than
originally expected exchange rate of Polish currency (PLN) to euro, the analyst point at increasing
world prices for agricultural products, growing output and competitive prices of Polish food as equally
important factors. Although the decrease of exchange rate of PLN to Euro may slow the pace of the
increase of exports in the second half of the year the overall value of Polish exports is forecast to reach
the record value this year.
European Union is the major market for Polish agricultural products. In the first six months of 2012
exports to the EU accounted for 75 percent of total exports. Within the EU, Germany and Great Britain
are the major markets for Polish food. Polish exports to non-EU countries have been growing faster
than within the EU. During the first half of 2012, the major non-EU destinations of Polish food and
agricultural products included Russia, Belarus, United States, Turkey, China, and South Korea. Exports
to Russia increased by an estimated 26 percent. Commodity wise, the largest increase of exports during
this period were noted in tobacco products and poultry meat, 15 and 18 percent respectively compared
to same period 2011. Polish dairy processing companies report that this year storage space is empty due
to higher export demand, whereas usually stocks are high going into the fall.
In the first half of 2012, Polish exports of food products have developed faster than imports. According
to the IRE, in 2012, Polish positive balance of trade of food and agricultural products is forecast to
increase to Euro 3.3 billion (US$ 4.3 billion) compared to Euro 2.6 billion (US$ 3.4 billion) for 2011.
Softer demand for more expensive imported food products is one major reason for the lower import
value registered in the first half of 2012.
Although overall value of Polish imports of agricultural products decreased three percent in the first half
of 2012 compared to 2011, the value of imports from the United States increased by 18 percent with the
largest increase noted in purchases of soybean meal (30 percent) and unmanufactured tobacco (118