Dairy Production Recovers in 2012

An Expert's View about Dairy Products in Russia

Last updated: 23 May 2011

Russian milk production is forecast to rebound 1.5% in 2012 as feed supplies begin to replenish in the second half of 2011.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 5/17/2011 GAIN Report Number: RS1124 Russian Federation Dairy and Products Semi-annual Production Recovers in 2012, Policy Changes Loom Approved By: Morgan Haas Prepared By: Morgan Haas, Mikhail Maksimenko, Stephen Therrien Report Highlights: Russian milk production is forecast to rebound 1.5% in 2012 as feed supplies begin to replenish in the second half of 2011. In turn, as milk prices return to lower levels, local processors will direct more milk toward butter production. In 2011, butter production is revised downward, reflecting production to date. While Belarus remains the dominant as well as the GOR?s preferred supplier of foreign dairy products, imports from all major suppliers have increased significantly in 2011 with rising retail prices. Russian production and trade-related policies will remain moving targets throughout the remainder of 2011 and likely into 2012 as the GOR continues to develop common regulations with its Customs Union partners as well as attempts to rebalance Russia?s competitiveness in the market. Summary Russian milk production is forecast to rebound 1.5% in 2012 as feed supplies begin to replenish in the second half of 2011. In turn, as milk prices return to lower levels, local processors will direct more milk toward butter production. In 2011, butter production is revised downward, reflecting production to date. While Belarus remains the dominant as well as the GOR?s preferred supplier of foreign dairy products, imports from all major suppliers have increased significantly in 2011 with rising retail prices. Russian production and trade-related policies will remain moving targets throughout the remainder of 2011 and likely into 2012 as the GOR continues to develop common regulations with its Customs Union partners as well as attempts to rebalance Russia?s competitiveness in the market. Fluid Milk Inventories of cows in milk will decrease slightly but continued improvements in productivity and increased feed availability should increase fluid milk production by 1.5% in 2012. Share of factory use consumption in total 2012 fluid milk production will grow to 56% from 55% in 2011 with the aid of subsidies to modernize Russian dairy processors. Modern agricultural enterprises, which represent a growing percentage of milk production, sell 98% of their milk for processing. Estimates in 2010 and 2011 reflect production and trade through March 2011. Table 1. Russia: Inventories, Fluid Milk Supply and Distribution, 1,000MT Dairy, 2010 2011 2012 Milk, Fluid MY Begin: Jan 2010 MY Begin: Jan 2011 MY Begin: Jan 2012 Russia USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Cows In Milk 9,200 9,000 8,975 8,820 8,800 Cows Milk Production 31,740 31,900 31,400 31,200 31,660 Other Milk Production 0 0 0 0 0 Total Production 31,740 31,900 31,400 31,200 31,660 Other Imports 150 190 150 210 200 Total Imports 150 190 150 210 200 Total Supply 31,890 32,090 31,550 31,410 31,860 Other Exports 15 10 10 5 5 Total Exports 15 10 10 5 5 Fluid Use Dom. Consump. 11,695 11,800 11,500 11,700 11,700 Factory Use Consump. 17,730 17,830 17,590 17,255 17,705 Feed Use Dom. Consump. 2,450 2,450 2,450 2,450 2,450 Total Dom. Consump. 31,875 32,080 31,540 31,405 31,855 Total Distribution 31,890 32,090 31,550 31,410 31,860 Butter Butter production is forecast to grow 7.7% in 2012, fully displacing imports and reflecting increased State support and lower expected milk prices as feed supplies replenish. Consumption is forecast flat as dairy spreads increase in popularity among consumers as a butter substitute. The Ministry of Agriculture?s Target Program ?Development of butter and cheese production in Russia for the period of 2011 ? 2013? (Dairy Products Program) envisages 3.8% butter production in 2011, 3.3% in 2012, and 3.7% in 2013. However, market conditions resulting from the 2010 drought negatively influenced implementation of the program in 2011. Estimates in 2010 and 2011 reflect production and trade through March 2011. Table 2. Russia: Butter Supply and Distribution, 1,000 MT (butter-equivalent) Dairy, 2010 2011 2012 Butter MY Begin: Jan 2010 MY Begin: Jan 2011 MY Begin: Jan 2012 Russia U S D A Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Beginning Stocks 12 12 7 7 7 Production 240 205 252 195 210 Other Imports 90 109 90 130 115 Total Imports 90 109 90 130 115 Total Supply 342 326 349 332 332 Other Exports 3 2 4 2 3 Total Exports 3 2 4 2 3 Domestic Consumption 332 317 335 323 322 Total Use 335 319 339 325 325 Ending Stocks 7 7 10 7 7 Total Distribution 342 326 349 332 332 Cheese Cheese production and imports are forecast to grow 2.3% in 2012, reflecting increased State support and lower expected milk prices as feed supplies replenish. The Dairy Products Program envisages 4.5% more cheese production in 2011, 4.8% in 2012 and 5.2% in 2013. Like butter, the 2010 drought negatively influenced implementation of the program in 2011. Estimates in 2010 and 2011 reflect production and trade through March 2011. Table 3. Russia: Cheese Supply and Distribution, 1,000 MT Dairy, 2010 2011 2012 Cheese MY Begin: Jan 2010 MY Begin: Jan 2011 MY Begin: Jan 2012 Russia U SDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Beginning Stocks 11 11 11 11 12 Production 430 435 430 440 450 Other Imports 365 305 370 335 340 Total Imports 365 305 370 335 340 Total Supply 806 751 811 786 802 Other Exports 22 20 23 7 10 Total Exports 22 20 23 7 10 Human Dom. Consumption 773 720 776 767 780 Total Dom. Consumption 773 720 776 767 780 Total Use 795 740 799 774 790 Ending Stocks 11 11 12 12 12 Total Distribution 806 751 811 786 802 Non-Fat Dry Milk (NFDM) NFDM production is forecast to increase 7.1% to 75,000 MT in 2012. The Dairy Products Program envisions increased marketing of raw material byproducts of dairy processing, which should support production of NFDM. Estimates in 2010 and 2011 reflect production and trade through March 2011. Table 4. Russia: Non-Fat Dry Milk Supply and Distribution, 1,000 MT Dairy, 2010 2011 2012 Milk, Nonfat Dry MY Begin: Jan 2010 MY Begin: Jan 2011 MY Begin: Jan 2012 Russia U SDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Production 70 70 75 70 75 Other Imports 180 180 180 185 190 Total Imports 180 180 180 185 190 Total Supply 250 250 255 255 265 Human Dom. Consumption 250 250 255 255 265 Total Dom. Consumption 250 250 255 255 265 Total Use 250 250 255 255 265 Total Distribution 250 250 255 255 265 Whole Milk Powder Whole milk powder production is forecast to increase 5.0% to 63,000 MT in 2012 based on market analysts? expectations. Estimates in 2010 and 2011 reflect production and trade through March 2011. Table 5. Russia: Whole Milk Powder Supply and Distribution, 1,000 MT Dairy, 2010 2011 2012 Dry Whole Milk Powder MY Begin: Jan 2010 MY Begin: Jan 2011 MY Begin: Jan 2012 Russia U SDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Production 50 55 55 60 63 Other Imports 50 55 70 50 55 Total Imports 50 55 70 50 55 Total Supply 100 110 125 110 118 Other Exports 12 2 12 2 2 Total Exports 12 2 12 2 2 Human Dom. Consumption 88 108 113 108 116 Total Dom. Consumption 88 108 113 108 116 Total Use 100 110 125 110 118 Total Distribution 100 110 125 110 118 Production Cow Inventory By the beginning of 2012, cow inventories will shrink by 2.0% as feed costs will remain problematic through at least the 2011 harvest. By the end of March 2011, cow inventories decreased 1.6% compared to 2011 to 8.9 million head after cattle slaughter rates increased in 2010 as a result of the drought which sharply decreased feed supplies. Feed availability per cow-equivalent unit was 30% lower by the end of March 2011 compared to the same period of 2010. Dairy cow stocks fell 2.8% in 2010. Fluid Milk Continued improvements in productivity as well as increased feed availability should increase fluid milk production by 1.5% in 2012. In 2011, feed shortages led to a decline in milk production of 2.2% which is forecast to decrease to 31,200 MMT in 2011. Russia continues to improve milk productivity at agricultural enterprises to replace declining herds. Of the 31.9 MMT of fluid milk produced in Russia in 2010, agricultural enterprises accounted for 44.9%, private households accounted for 50.4%, and private farms accounted for 4.7% of production. In 2009, these figures were 44.5%, 51.1%, and 4.4%, respectfully. In 2011, agricultural enterprises decreased first quarter fluid milk production to 6.2 MMT or 2.3% the same period in 2010. At the same time, annual cow milk productivity at these establishments increased to 1,108 kg from 1,093 kg. Poor management and the failure of most farms to modernize continue to hurt advancement of the Russian dairy industry. According to press reports, many leaders and top specialists simply do not know basic technological processes or market regulations. Prior to higher milk prices, many agricultural enterprises, equipped with new infrastructure and technology (supported by federal and regional budgets), were returning large profits. However, even during this period, since support was not reaching all Russian businesses, both producers and processors with older technologies were arguing that the dairy industry was unprofitable. In an attempt to resolve the inequity, the Russian Union of Milk Producers (SoyuzMoloko) and the Russian State Agricultural Leasing Company (RosAgroLeasing) signed a cooperation agreement with the target of providing equal access to federal credit to farmers for purchases of agricultural equipment and breeding animals. The main objectives of the agreement are as follows: (1) the implementation of measures to support domestic farmers, (2) the development of domestic livestock breeding, and (3) an increase of agricultural production by small producers in the rural areas by creating an environment for dairy processing, storage and marketing. The two organizations also discussed creating agricultural education and production centers for meat and dairy specialists to learn modern production methods. Fluid Milk Prices The reduced milk supply continues to support prices in all segments of the market: farm-gate, processor, and retail well above year-ago levels (Chart 1). Currently, with high milk prices, the financial position of dairy processors has become more difficult. Dairy product stocks are high, but due to high prices which have made imports competitive, quantity- demand for domestic products is low. As a result, the largest dairies have begun to decrease purchase prices for raw milk. They note that the price for raw milk should be between RUR11-14/liter ($0.37- $0.48) for 3.0-3.4% fat milk in 2011. SoyuzMoloko reports that farms that took credits and modernized their production now struggle to pay back credit as demand for their products and profits have decreased. While some dairies are providing their fluid milk suppliers with credit, SoyuzMoloko insists that the State should forgive at least a portion of the debt and continue to subsidize loan interest rates, since it has an obligation to ensure the profitability of dairy producers. Chart 1. Farm-gate, Processor, and Retail Prices for Fluid Milk, 3.2% Fat, RUR/kg Dairy Products Lower priced milk that will come with increased supply in 2012 will primarily benefit domestic butter production, while other dairy products will see comparatively modest gains. The Ministry of Agriculture?s Target Program ?Development of butter and cheese production in Russia for the period of 2011 ? 2013? (Dairy Products Program) should support the modernization of Russian dairy processors and thereby also support increased milk volume destined for factory use. Specifically, the plan foresees that 15-16% of fluid milk sent to the processing industry will go for cheese production. Domestic production of milk powder remains important to account for seasonal milk production in addition to retaining strategic stocks. The Russian State Statistics Service (Rosstat) January-March data indicates a more a favorable outlook for cheese and WMP than previously forecast but a more pessimistic outlook for butter and NFDM. Production-to-date of whole milk products (calculated as milk-equivalent) and butter decreased by 1.9% and 6.3%, respectively. Butter production remains severely constrained by high milk prices and increased consumer preferences for lower priced dairy spreads. According to SoyuzMoloko, dairy spread production was 11.5% higher than butter production during the fourth quarter of 2010 ? a first in Russian history. Estimates in 2010 reflect final 2010 Rosstat data. Fluid milk, cheese, and whole milk powder production volumes increased, while butter production decreased. Modern agricultural enterprises, which represent a growing percentage of milk production, sell 98% of their milk for processing. Milk and Dairy Product Marketing Growing Interest in Milk Marketing Cooperatives Russia has seen an emerging interest in dairy cooperatives in order to increase profits. In an average size dairy oblast, Lipetsk, 60% of the milk producers organized a milk marketing cooperative in order to allow farmers to concentrate on production. As a result, cow inventories of cooperative members have already grown, and the cooperative has fixed a year-long milk price with its major customers. These dairy farmers are now demanding the GOR decrease VAT for milk sold from dairy cooperatives. Also, they are actively campaigning for the GOR to turn to dairy cooperatives when purchasing milk for social needs (e.g., schools, hospitals, army, and prisons). Trading Dairy Products on the Exchange In March, SoyuzMoloko and Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange (MICEX) signed an agreement of cooperation, which includes plans for spot trading, deliverable futures contracts, as well as settlement services for milk and dairy products. Spot trading of dry milk should begin sometime during the second quarter of this year. Contracts for other dairy commodities, including butter, will follow. Russian, Belarusian, Kazakh, and Ukrainian parties are expected to trade on the market. Trade Imports While butter imports should fall back in 2012 as domestic production increases, increasing consumer buying power should continue to support cheese imports. Market analysts expect both WMP and NFDM imports will increase slightly. In 2011, the short milk supply has increased year-to-date imports of butter, cheese, and fluid milk. However, while imports of milk powder from third-party suppliers are above last year levels, lower imports from Belarus have kept total import supply relatively flat. In spite of prolonged shortages, Russia continues to actively restrict market access for dairy products through the use of quantitative measures as well as sanitary and technical barriers to trade. The aim is two-fold: (1) restrict foreign supply in order to support domestic prices and thereby support domestic production and (2) where imports are necessary, import from Russia?s Custom Union partners, particularly Belarus. Tariffs and Quotas Lobbied by a strong domestic dairy industry, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture is considering further increases to customs duties on dairy products. In 2010, import duties increased on cheese, whey, other dairy products, as well as palm oil. The Russian-Kazakh-Belarusian Customs Union (CU) must approve any decision to increase duties. Annually, Belarus supplies roughly 40% of Russia?s imported butter, 30% of its cheese, 80% of its milk powder, and 85% of its fluid milk. Nonetheless, imports from Belarus are currently limited though a quota system with quarterly targets. However, Belarus and Russia maintain an understanding that the quota levels can be changed in order to meet Russian market conditions. SPS/TBT Market access for countries outside the CU will further come into question in 2012. According to CU Decision #455 of November 18, 2010, Russia will cease honoring all previously agreed dairy health certificates on January 1, 2012. Starting that date, CU Decision #607 of April 7, 2011, sets forth the new uniform health certificates, which Russia will force exporters to use. Currently, Russia does not permit the United States to export dairy products to Russia. Russia maintains that in order to export, dairy products must come from CU-approved facilities. Russia began enforcing this requirement in September 2010. Exports Russian dairy exports are negligible and destined primarily to former Soviet Union countries. Policy The GOR and SoyuzMoloko continue to take active steps to increase domestic support as well as trade barriers in efforts to provide additional support for local producers. While at the AgroFarm Expo in April 2011, the Minister of Agriculture indicated the National Agricultural Program supported construction of more than 2,500 modern livestock farms for the last several years, and many of them now exceed the technological advancement of foreign counterparts. The Minister said 55 programs for dairy cattle breeding have been started since 2009. The Ministry allocated RUR1.0 billion ($33 million) in 2011 and RUR3.5 billion ($116 million) in 2010 for cattle improvement programs. As a result, the Minister noted the number of pedigree cattle increased from 7.4% to 12.0% in Russia?s dairy herd during the last five years. The Minister continued to pledge that an additional RUR5.0 billion ($166 million) will be transferred to regions that had not reduced cattle inventories at the end of 2010. Furthermore, she stated that subsidies from the branch target program for the development of family-based dairy farms had created 311 new farms, which in total produce an additional 58,400 MT of milk, and this program would be extended through 2020. The Minister concluded with several measures currently under consideration in order to maintain a stable situation in the dairy industry: Intervening with the Joint Grain Company to buy up to 100,000 MT of milk powder; Increasing customs duties on several items, including butter and cheese; Adjusting the supply, if necessary, of Belarusian dairy products within agreed quotas, such as moving summer deliveries to the autumn and winter period; Creating a program for butter and cheese production in order to stimulate modernization of the dairy industry, supported by subsidized loans; Developing new mechanisms to support milk production, including direct subsidies per liter of high-quality marketed milk in preparation for a new State Program for Agriculture Development for 2013-2020 (SPAD 2013-2020); Developing a new section within the SPAD 2013-2020 devoted to the development of processing industries; Following Technical Regulation use and labeling requirements related to tropical oils; Establishing a program of domestic dairy product advertisement aimed at increasing consumption of Russian milk. Participants of the Dairy Cattle Breeding Seminar at the AgroFarm Expo discussing problems of the industry contributed recommendations of their own to improve the Russian dairy sector. Adjust statistical dairy cow inventories to reflect actual totals. It is well documented that cow inventories in private households are difficult to count and local administrations have a tendency to overestimate the number in order to receive State subsidies applied at a per head rate. Create separate dairy breed associations to help improve genetic potential; Establish independent, expert companies that would provide objective evaluations of pedigree cattle. Currently, pedigree dairy cattle potential is evaluated by the same farms that market pedigree cows. These pedigrees are difficult to verify. Earlier in March 2011, officials from the Russian Government as well as milk producers and processors from Russia and Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine gathered for the 2nd Annual Meeting of SoyuzMoloko. Organizers of the meeting reported that the annual capital turnover in the Russian dairy industry is valued at about RUR640 billion ($21.3 billion). Annual investments in the industry accounted for about RUR13-15 billion ($448-520 million). Dairy products account for 10-15% of total food product turnover at retail. First Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov made the following comments. Private households were the only milk producers that had increased liquid milk production in 2010. The GOR will increase support to producers which introduce new technologies (e.g., biogas production), which lead to lower production costs and less waste. FDPM Zubkov tasked RosAgroLeasing to provide credit for longer than 10 years for such projects. In the first quarter of 2011, major milk producers pay only half the market value for feed. The GOR will subsidize the purchase of dairy heifers. Small farmers will receive subsidized loans for cattle purchase and dairy farm construction until 2020. Farmers should sell more fluid milk at farmers markets to bypass middlemen. FDPM Zubkov also noted his displeasure with the lack of control in the retail sector that currently allows identical products in different venues to be sold at different prices. SoyuzMoloko Head Andrei Danilenko recommended two ways to stimulate milk production. Support marketable milk depending on its quality rather than provide support per head of cow. Danilenko stated there is no sense to support low-productive cows. Farmers falsify dairy cow figures reporting higher cattle numbers to get more subsidies. Growth of milk retail prices has limits, while milk production costs are growing. Raise customs duties on imports of palm oil, which are used to produce cheese, cottage cheese, butter, and condensed milk. Danilenko noted it was hard to compete with ?fake? products when counterfeiters have higher profits and therefore more resources to advertize. Prior to the 2nd Annual Meeting, SoyuzMoloko sent a letter to the Ministry of Agriculture stating that as a result of the 2010 drought, a strengthening currency, and subsidized European exports, Rosstat indicated the share of imported dairy products in 2010 amounted to 19.2% of the total supply, compared to 16.8% in 2009. Against this backdrop, producers? stocks of long-term storage products (butter, cheese, and milk powder) as of March 1, 2011, had doubled compared to the year previous. In conclusion, SoyuzMoloko asserted that since existing customs duties do not protect the Russian dairy market, they needed to be substantially raised, particularly for butter (from 15% to 20%), cheese and cottage cheese (from 15% to 25%), and milk and cream in powder granules or other solid forms (from 25% to 40%). Commenting on the letter, the Institute of Agricultural Market Studies noted it would be important to ensure the preservation of a competitive environment and consumer protection if protective measures are taken. Technical Regulations under Development Both the Technical Regulation on Milk and Dairy Products (Federal Law #88) as well as the Technical Regulation on Fat and Oil Products (Federal Law #90) are currently under development at the CU as well as the Eurasian Economic Community (EAEC). Changes to them will impact both domestic and imported dairy products to the region. Draft versions of these new Technical Regulations are published yet remain under internal review. The CU has currently delayed the release of these Technical Regulations for public comment since March 2011, as internal agreement among the three parties has not yet been reached. Following the CU, the EAEC is scheduled to complete its work on the Technical Regulation on Fat and Oil Products in the 2nd and 3rd quarter of 2011, while the Technical Regulation on Milk and Dairy Products is scheduled for the 3rd and 4th quarter of 2011. Ultimately, the Technical Regulations for Russia, the CU, and the EAEC should be identical. In April, Russian and Belarusian experts agreed to introduce the term ?vegetable-dairy products? in Technical Regulations where non-dairy fat content is more than 50% of the content on a fat-basis. The Russian Union of Milk Processors and the Association of Soap and Fat Producers agreed in April 2011 to organize a seminar ?Modern Technologies of Producing Milk-Containing Products,? at the end of May 2011 in order to discuss the Technical Regulation on Fat and Oil Products. MILK AND DAIRY TABLES Cattle Inventory Table 6. Russia: Cattle Inventories, Million Head Cattle Including Cows 2009 2010 % ? 2009 2010 % ? Cattle inventories, total 20,6713 20,034.3 96.9 9,025.8 8,797.0 97.5 Agricultural establishments 9,5552 9,231.2 96.6 3,767.6 3,695.5 98.1 Private households 9,7587 9,373.2 96.0 4,624.7 4,433.3 95.9 Private farms 1,357.5 1,429.9 105.3 633.6 668.2 105.4 Source: Rosstat Table 7. Russia: Feed availability by April 1 2009 2010 2011 % ? Feed 1 units , MMT 9.3 9.8 6.9 70.0 Feed grain, MMT 4.0 4.3 3.1 72.1 Per cow-equivalent units, MT 0.59 0.62 0.43 69.4 1One feed unit equals 1 kilogram of oats in energy equivalent. Source: Rosstat Supply and Distribution Table 8. Russia: Supply and Utilization of Dairy Products, 1,000MT 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 % ? Stocks, beginning of the year 1,692.8 1,776.6 1,870.0 1,925.7 2,096.9 108.9 Production 30,825.6 31,097.4 31,988.4 32,363.1 32,570.2 100.6 Import 7,115.4 7,292.7 7,133.9 7,315.3 7,004.9 95.8 Total supply 39,633.8 40,166.7 40,992.3 41,604.1 41,672.0 100.2 Consumption, nonfood 4,096.9 4,067.0 4,168.0 4,307.6 4,372.2 101.5 Losses 17.1 20.7 21.4 21.4 22.8 106.5 Exports 492.8 532.0 582.5 612.3 519.8 84.9 Personal consumption 33,250.4 33,687.1 34,294.7 34,565.9 34,900.6 101.0 Stocks, end of the year 1,776.6 1,859.9 1,925.7 2,096.9 1,856.6 88.5 Source: Rosstat Milk Processing Table 9. Russia: Dairy Product Production, 1,000 MT January-March 2009 2010 YTD % ? 2010 2011 Whole milk product (milk equivalent) 10,390 11, 297 2, 746 2,692 98.1 Cheeses and cheese products 428.2 433.4 90.9 91.6 100.8 Dairy butter 215.2 205.2 46.8 43.9 93.8 Milk and cream in solid form 114.0 109.7 17.6 19.3 109.7 Source: Russian Union of Milk Producers Table 10. Russia: Dairy Product Production, 2005-2009, MT 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Animal butter 235,113 221,744 231,385 220,443 192,535 Dairy butter 199,127 194,054 210,447 208,379 183,481 Cheeses and cottage cheese 563,686 644,120 724,014 687,451 719,575 Cheeses (including Fat cheese) 331,307 362,603 379,138 360,291 368,226 Whole milk products (milk equivalent) 8,588,704 9,099,927 9,165,139 9024,590 9343,015 Including milk production in natural weight - liquid and pasty dairy products 85,157 85,641 102,248 109,825 106,262 for infants Cow's whole milk powder, cream powder and dry m 5,447 72,056 71,157 78,294 46,373 ixes for ice cream 7 Including milk powder (mother milk substitute) and a mixture of powdered 14,150 14,379 16,051 21,537 17,913 milk for infants Skimmed milk powder, whole milk replacer and w 107,999 117,901 130,357 124,208 102,996 hey powder Low-fat dairy products (skim milk equiv.) 391,713 406,068 399,591 432,992 410,353 Milk drink n/a n/a n/a n/a 46,831 Ice cream 322,854 306,338 323,529 310,832 Per capita milk consumption 0.234 0.238 0.241 0.243 0.246 Source: Rosstat Table 11. Russia: Production Capacity Utilization at Ag Enterprises, % 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Whole milk products (milk equivalent) 48 51 55 54 57 Butter 27 28 31 32 27 Cheese 61 66 66 58 64 Canned milk 61 58 50 65 58 Vegetable oil 70 69 66 63 73 Margarine 56 60 64 60 60 Source: Rosstat Trade Table 12. Russia: Imports of Dairy Products, 1,000 MT Products 2008 2009 2010 Jan-Mar ?10 Jan-Mar ?11 YTD %? Butter 040510 120.8 102.2 108.9 16.0 19.0 118.8 --from Belarus 45.6 50.4 40.8 5.9 2.9 49.2 Cheese and curd 0406 363.9 359.4 431.1 52.3 60.8 116.3 --from Belarus 101.7 119.9 127.2 16.3 20.0 122.7 Milk powder 0402 160.2 133.9 236.5 32.9 32.6 99.1 --from Belarus 141.4 120.7 157.6 24.3 21.4 88.1 Whole milk 0401 78.7 118.5 190.1 28.2 31.0 109.9 --from Belarus 65.1 104.7 162.4 25.5 26.5 103.9 Source: Russian Union of Milk Producers Table 13. Belarus: Dairy Export Quota to Russia, 2011 NFDM Whole Milk Concentrated Dry Dairy Cheese and Other dairy Powder milk whey Butter cottage cheese products QI 16.0 5.0 12.5 2.0 17.5 31.0 75.0 QII 16.0 5.0 12.5 2.0 17.5 31.0 75.0 QIII 17.0 5.0 12.5 2.0 17.5 32.0 75.0 QIV 16.0 5.0 12.5 2.0 17.5 31.0 75.0 Total 65.0 20.0 50.0 8.0 70.0 125.0 300.0 Source: The Russian Union of Milk producers http://www.souzmoloko.ru/news/news_659.html Table 14. Russian Imports of Dairy Products Value ($1,000) Volume (1,000 MT) Annual Year-to-Date Annual Year-to-Date Feb Feb 2009 2010 Feb-10 Feb-11 % ? 2009 2010 -10 -11 % ? 1,178,99 1,978,51 235,14 370,35 TOTAL DAIRY PRODUCTS 8 2 8 8 57.50 384 549 68 99 45 1,380,85 159,82 248,48 50 69 European Union 809,449 3 8 4 55.47 273 405 38 Ukraine 252,084 387,598 52,390 64,102 22.36 63 71 9 11 16 New Zealand 69,452 77,289 10,634 31,476 195.98 30 30 4 11 163 Argentina 21,921 49,860 3,578 8,628,9 141.10 8 15 1 2 96 Switzerland 6,682 21,370 1,609 1,895 17.73 1 6 1 1 - 4 1,498.0 652 10,422 0 3 Australia 5,387 8,662 4 2 5 1754 Kazakhstan 3,217 1,816 380 0 - 100.00 2 1 0 0 -100 United States 2,829 23,832 4,371 99 - 97.72 1 10 2 0 - 99 Norway 2,798 3,857 502 560 11.46 1 1 0 0 10 Uruguay 1,951 11,345 1,015 1,436 41.46 1 4 0 1 74 04011 0 Milk/Cream, Fluid, ? 1% Fat 382 723 59 116 96.1 0 1 0 0 93 04012 0 Milk/Cream, Fluid, 1% ? 6% Fat 5,510 8,850 964 2,328 141.51 6 11 1 3 122 04013 0 Milk/Cream, Fluid, >6% Fat 12,131 36,599 3,261 7,082 117.14 6 15 1 3 100 04021 0 Milk/Cream, Dry, ? 1.5% Fat 21,257 180,230 20,117 30,557 51.89 8 62 7 10 56 04022 1 Milk/Cream, Dry, Unsweetened, > 1.5% Fat 16,616 52,701 7,391 8,891 20.29 5 14 2 3 26 04022 9 Milk/Cream, Dry, Sweetened, > 1.5% Fat 207 915 0 72 n/a 0 0 0 0 n/a 04029 1 Milk/Cream, Concentrated, Unsweetened 6 125 0 11 n/a 0 0 0 0 n/a 04029 9 Milk/Cream, Sweetened 704 758 66 57 -12.89 0 2 0 0 -11 04031 0 Yogurt 9,325 14,678 1,761 4,144 135.31 6 9 1 3 125 04039 Buttermilk/Kephir/Curdled/Fermented/Acidifie 0 d 10,132 16,827 2,187 5,082 132.32 6 8 1 3 150 04041 0 Whey & Modified Whey 42,460 50,990 7,554 6,532 -13.53 51 46 8 6 -27 04049 0 Products Of Natural Milk Constituents, Other 3,057 7,529 782 582 -25.47 1 1 0 0 66 04051 0 Butter 126,331 207,330 29,018 64,214 121.28 50 66 10 20 102 04052 0 Dairy Spreads 15,645 19,815 3,438 5,866 70.61 5 4 1 1 40 04059 0 Dairy Fats And Oils, Other (e.g., AMF) 14,268 25,863 4,475 11,698 161.37 4 5 1 2 95 04061 0 Cheese, Fresh 70,347 99,286 10,753 19,520 81.52 23 29 4 6 67 04062 0 Cheese, Grated Or Powdered 4,426 7,020 609 1,523 149.99 1 2 0 0 49 04063 0 Cheese, Processed, Not Grated Or Powdered 41,896 57,037 7,382 13,586 84.02 13 16 2 4 52 04064 0 Cheese, Blue-Veined 16,257 21,145 2,940 3,516 19.59 3 4 1 1 18 04069 1,135,12 129,68 180,61 0 Cheese, Other 742,896 4 9 6 39.27 189 244 28 35 26 21050 0 Ice Cream And Other Edible Ice 19,553 25,977 1,875 3,154 68.24 5 6 0 1 73 35011 0 Casein 258 1,839 0 386 n/a 0 0 0 0 n/a 35019 0 Caseinates & Other Derivatives; Casein Glue 2,466 3,311 307 522 69.99 1 1 0 0 48 35022 0 Milk Albumin, Inc Conc of ?2 Whey Proteins 1,8 1 2,240 422 205 -51.38 0 0 0 0 -63 - 35071 21.4 0 Rennet And Concentrates 1,487 1,593 85 85 -0.9 0 0 0 0 9 NOTE: Statistics exclude Belarus (2009-2011) and Kazakhstan (since August 2010)
Posted: 23 May 2011, last updated 23 May 2011

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