Grain and Feed Update

An Expert's View about Agriculture and Animal Husbandry in Serbia

Posted on: 30 Nov 2011

Corn harvest is completed in Serbia, with total area harvested estimated at 1.26 million HA and total production projected at about 6.3 million MT. In MY10/11 export of corn from Serbia reached record levels of 2 million MT.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Voluntary Public - Date: 11/16/2011 GAIN Report Number: RB1117 Serbia Post: Belgrade Grain and Feed Update Report Categories: Grain and Feed Approved By: Hoa Huynh Prepared By: Tatjana Maslac Report Highlights: Corn harvest is completed in Serbia, with total area harvested estimated at 1.26 million HA and total production projected at about 6.3 million MT. In MY10/11 export of corn from Serbia reached record levels of 2 million MT. The Serbian Commodity Reserves has recently announced its intention to purchase 50,000 MT of MY11/12 corn at the price of 18 dinars/kg ($247/MT). Wheat crop with record average yields of above 4 MT/HA is projected at 2 million MT that represents a 27 percent increase compared to previous year. Planting of the new wheat crop has been hampered by extremely dry land. For the new planting MY11/12 season, about 1 million hectares are expected to be seeded in Serbia. Total area planted of the new wheat crop is estimated to be around 500,000 HA. General Information: According to the Serbian Ministry of Agriculture, for MY11/12 Serbian producers planted 490,000 HA of wheat. Due to very favorable weather conditions, wheat crop has increased for 27 percent and reached level of 2 million MT and record high average yield of 4.2 MT/HA. At the end of the first week of November, the harvest of the corn has been completed. According to the Serbian Statistical Office, corn harvested area was 1.26 million HA, average yield was 5 MT and total production is projected at Serbian average of 6.3 million MT. Harvest of the soybean crop for MY11/12 has also been completed. Soybean area harvested was 165,335 HA, with an average yield of 2.5 MT/HA and projected production of 415,782 MT. Due to very dry summer, production of soybean decreased for about 23 percent comparing to the previous year. For sunflower crop, extremely warm summer did not have negative effects and total production of sunflower for MY11/12 was estimated at 415,177 MT or about 9.7 percent higher comparing to MY10/11. Area harvested with sunflower was 174,621 HA and an average yield was 2.38 MT/HA. Sugar beet was harvested from 55,655 HA and total production with an average yield of 46.26 MT/HA was projected at 2.57 million MT or 22 percent less than in MY10/11 (due to the extreme high temperatures during the summer). For the new planting season, about 1 million hectares are expected to be seeded in Serbia for the MY12/13 crop year. Due to very high temperatures during last summer corn harvest in Serbia started earlier than usual. Planting of the new wheat crop has been hampered by extremely dry land. It is projected that total wheat planted area for the MY12/12 crop will be about 500,000 HA. The biggest part of the planned one million hectares this fall or about 50 percent will be planted with wheat. Rye, oats and barley will be planted at about total 150,000 HA, industrial plants at 70,000 HA, and fodder and vegetables at 100,000 HA each. Some other small crops will account planting on some 80,000 HA this autumn. The Serbia Government continues to provide crop and oilseeds production support (certified seeds, diesel fuel and mineral fertilizers) of 14,000 dinars/HA ($191/HA) of arable land to only registered farmers that are regularly paying costs for pension and retirement fund. In addition to this measure, Serbian Government is also subsidizing 40 percent of the premium for the insurance of agriculture crops and is subsidizing costs for storing wheat for maximum 6 months in some 11 certified storages through Serbia. Serbian Government is also subsidizing banking credit?s interest rates for farmers. Wheat Update: According to the Serbian Ministry of Agriculture, for MY11/12 Serbian producers planted 490,000 HA of wheat. Due to very favorable weather conditions the whole vegetation period, wheat crop has increased for 27 percent, reaching record high levels of average yields of 4.2 MT/HA and total production of 2 million MT. Comparing to MY10/11 this is for 27 percent bigger production of wheat. Good weather conditions resulted not just in excellent wheat yields but also in very good baking quality of wheat flour. Due to the low wheat production in MY10/11 and low ending stocks, in March 2011, the Government of Serbia, decided to ban all wheat exports from Serbia for three months (until the new wheat harvest) in order to help to stabilize the market and keep bread prices from rising. Due to the three months wheat export ban Serbian farmers and traders had about 300,000 MT of MY10/11 wheat in stocks and new wheat harvest of MY11/12 was excellent, trading with wheat after the harvest was very slow and price started to decline. At that moment, after the harvest, r in order to support wheat trade and to prop up market price for the new wheat crop, Serbian Government decided to purchase 100,000 MT for State Commodity Reserves. Wheat was purchased through Novi Sad Commodity Exchange at price of 20 dinars/kg ($274/MT). Total quantity of 100,000 MT of the new wheat crop was purchased until end of August 2011. Price of wheat was stable since wheat harvest mostly due to the good export results. According to the Grain Fund of Serbia, from July to October 2011, Serbia exported 188,162 MT of the new wheat crop and some 46,410 MT of flour. Serbia is mostly exporting wheat to Bosnia and Herzegovina, Romania, Macedonia and Montenegro. It is estimated that for MY11/12 Serbia will have for export up to 500,000 MT of wheat. Current wheat price at the Novi Sad Commodity Exchange for the new wheat crop is between 17.80 dinars/kg ($234/MT) and 18.20 dinars/kg ($250/MT), which is higher than wheat from neighboring countries. Current wheat price in Budapest Commodity Exchange is about 16 dinars/kg ($210/MT). High temperatures and extremely dry land also affected some delays in planting of the wheat crop. Wheat planting so far has been almost completed on the total targeted area. It is projected that total wheat planted area for the MY12/12 crop will be about 500,000 HA, same as for the last two years. It is estimated that only about 50 percent of the targeted wheat area in Serbia will be seeded by certified seeds, while the remaining area will be planted with seeds from the last year crop. Most of the small wheat farmers (with limited financial resources) use non-selected seed varieties. About 80 percent of the total seed used in Serbia are local seed varieties, while about 20 percent are wheat seed varieties from other countries. Wheat Serbia 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Jul 2010 Market Year Begin: May 2011 Market Year Begin: Jul 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Harvested 488 488 493 493 500 Beginning Stocks 718 718 322 303 223 Production 1,650 1,650 2,100 2,000 1,900 MY Imports 7 15 10 20 10 TY Imports 7 15 10 20 10 TY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 2,375 2,383 2,432 2,323 2,133 MY Exports 553 530 300 500 350 TY Exports 553 530 300 500 350 Feed and Residual 100 150 300 200 200 FSI Consumption 1,400 1,400 1,450 1,400 1,400 Total Consumption 1,500 1,550 1,750 1,600 1,600 Ending Stocks 322 303 382 223 183 Total Distribution 2,375 2,383 2,432 2,323 2,133 1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA Corn Update: At the end of the first week of November, the harvest of the corn has been completed in Serbia, with total area harvested estimated at 1.26 million HA and total production projected at about 6.3 million MT. Drought that hit this region during summer time, reduced corn production in Serbia for about 15 percent lower than previously estimated. An average yield of corn for MY11/12 was about 5 MT/HA. Harvest of corn this year started earlier, due to record high temperatures during last summer that resulted in corn ready earlier than usual. Due to unusual high temperatures during harvest in September and October, some farmers left their corn crop in the fields longer in order to lower moisture content and thus reduce drying costs. Stock-farming in Serbia, due to low number of livestock, will need lower amount of corn in comparison to the previous years. Domestic consumption requirements in MY11/12 are estimated at 4.2 million MT. Most of the total corn production will be used for animal feed, while rest will be used for human consumption and increased starch production in Serbia. In MY10/11 export of corn from Serbia reached record levels of 2 million MT, almost 40 percent higher than in MY09/10. Reason for such a good results in corn exports in Serbia are Russian and Ukrainian ban on export of corn imposed during 2010. Due to the problems on Danube river with low water, during September 2011 Serbia exported only 30,000 MT of corn, while in October 2011, this situation with transport of corn improved and Serbia managed to export 153,933 MT of corn. Some exports of corn are going by trucks to neighboring countries Montenegro, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Albania, while majority (about 70 percent) is being exported to Cyprus, Italy, Spain and other EU countries by Danube River to Port Constanza to the Back Sea. On November 17, Serbian Commodity Reserves announced that it will buy up to 50,000 MT of MY11/12 corn at the price of 18 dinars/kg ($247/MT). The government decided to purchase this amount of corn in order to increase state corn reserves and to support corn farmers. Corn will be bought from registered farms and agricultural cooperatives. The minimum amount that will be bought from a registered family farm is 10 MT, and the maximum 100 MT, while the maximum amount of 150 tons can be bought from agricultural cooperatives. Current corn prices at Novi Sad Commodity Exchange are between 15.60 ($205/MT) and 16.50 ($226/MT). Price of corn in July hit record high of 24 dinars/kg ($328/MT), but since then price of corn started to decline reaching the lowest level in November 2011 $205/MT). Since corn export was blocked for about two months and the new corn crop arrived at the same time, supply of corn in Serbia was extremely high and price has dropped. From August 30, 2011, Danube River was very law and river vessels and barges were not able to sail with corn shipments. Exports of corn through Danube started end of October, but again for the past 2-3 weeks level of Danube river is low and new problems are starting for shipping companies and corn exporters. Corn Serbia 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Oct 2009 Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 Market Year Begin: Oct 2011 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Harvested 1,200 0 1,230 1,230 1,260 1,260 Beginning Stocks 664 664 1,023 1,024 1,023 1,024 Production 6,400 6,400 6,800 6,800 6,300 6,300 MY Imports 2 0 0 0 0 0 TY Imports 2 0 0 0 0 0 TY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 7,066 7,064 7,823 7,824 7,323 7,324 MY Exports 1,343 1,340 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 TY Exports 1,343 1,340 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Feed and Residual 4,400 4,400 4,400 4,400 4,400 4,200 FSI Consumption 300 300 400 400 400 400 Total Consumption 4,700 4,700 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,600 Ending Stocks 1,023 1,024 1,023 1,024 523 724 Total Distribution 7,066 7,064 7,823 7,824 7,323 7,324 1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA
Posted: 30 November 2011

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