South African Citrus Exports Expected to Grow

An Expert's View about Agriculture and Animal Husbandry in South Africa

Posted on: 26 Dec 2011

South Africa ranks as the world’s second largest exporter of fresh citrus fruit behind Spain. Post expects the 2011/12 export season to be similar to 2009/10 season at 1.54 MMT on anticipated increase

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 12/6/2011 GAIN Report Number: South Africa - Republic of Citrus Annual South African Citrus Exports Expected to Grow in MY 2011/12 Approved By: Corey Pickelsimer Prepared By: Linda Siphugu Report Highlights: South Africa ranks as the world’s second largest exporter of fresh citrus fruit behind Spain. Post expects the 2011/12 export season to be similar to 2009/10 season at 1.54 MMT on anticipated increased supplies as more trees reach full bearing potential. The South African Marketing Year (MY) 2010/11 citrus production was negatively affected by hail storms that reduced Navel yields in the production areas of Mpumalanga province which is rated as the third biggest production region of Navel oranges in South Africa. Despite the slight decrease to citrus exports for MY 2010/11, the latest industry export figures show an increase in grapefruit and soft citrus export volumes. Executive Summary: South Africa (SA) ranks as the world’s second largest exporter of fresh citrus fruit behind Spain, and is ranked 13th in world citrus production. Despite increased competition in global markets, SA citrus production has been increasing as the industry adopts new varieties to meet global demand and improves management practices. Approximately 62 percent of citrus in SA is grown for export markets, 23 percent is juiced, while 15 percent is sold on the local market. The South African citrus industry is regarded as a supplier of high-quality fruit in terms of taste, size, and color. The industry set a domestic record in 2009/10 when it exported 1.5 MMT of citrus fruit (inclusive of all types). Sixty percent of South Africa’s citrus exports depart from Durban. Thirteen percent of citrus exports transit the Cape Town port, while the balance is shipped through Port Elizabeth or Maputo, Mozambique, ports. Figure 1. Map of Citrus Producing Regions Source: CGA Harvest Season The citrus season in South Africa typically starts in April and ends in September. However, the harvest time and marketing years vary depending on the fruit and variety. Marketing Year There is a one year lag between the South African (SA) marketing year (MY) and the U.S. marketing year (MY). For example, SA MY 2011/2012 is equivalent to U.S. MY 2010/2011. As such, and to ensure data continuity, the current South African MY 2011/12 will be referred to as U.S. MY 2010/11 throughout this report. (Please see PSD tables for the relevant marketing years.) Table 1. South Africa: Harvest Period for Citrus by Commodity Citrus Types Harvest Period Marsh Grapefruit April to June Star Ruby Grapefruit April to September Lemons June to September Navel Oranges June to July Tangerines July to August Valencia Oranges July to September Export season outlook: Post expects the 2011/12 export season to be similar to 2009/10 season at 1.540 MMT on anticipated increased supplies as more trees reach full bearing potential. Additionally, the current relative weakness of the Rand against the dollar should boost citrus exports. A slight decline is expected for the 2010/11 export season in South Africa as hail affected some of the orange producing areas. Current industry estimates for 2010/11 show an increase in grapefruit exports, a slight decline in oranges (Navels), and slight increases in soft fruit and lemons. The 2009/10 export season was characterized by a strong Rand, which affected the profitability of producers exporting to Northern Europe and United Kingdom (UK) markets, rains that disrupted the first weeks of the harvest season, and a disruptive strike at ports that caused major export delays. Despite these challenges, South African producers had a record export season in 2009/10 with total citrus exports amounting to 1.5MMT. Strong demand from Middle East and Russian markets has stimulated the demand; the middle East market has been growing since 2007 at 16.8 percent, 18.2 percent in 2008 and 21.6 percent in 2009. Sources Citrus Growers’ Association (CGA) National Agricultural Marketing Council (NAMC) Perishable Products Export Control Board (PPECB) Global Trade Atlas (GTA) Jacobsens Harmonized Customs Tariff Euromonitor Tshwane Market South Africa Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (DAFF) Table 2. Exchange Rate R- $ (Dollar) R- € (Euro) R- £ (Pound) June 2011 6.69 9.87 11.02 June 2010 7.59 9.81 11.49 Source: CGA Commodities: Grapefruit, Fresh Production: Post forecasts 2011/12 South African grapefruit at 360,000 MT, a three percent decline as citrus production tends to cyclically drop every second year. Alternatively, post expects 2010/11 South African grapefruit production at 370,000 MT, an eight percent increase from the previous year, as South Africa’s grapefruit production cycle experienced a higher yielding year. Post revises 2009/10 grapefruit production at 343,173 MT based on industry reports. This represents a seven percent decrease over the previous year on changes in South Africa’s grapefruit production cycle. Grapefruit is mainly grown in Limpopo (3,202 ha), Mpumalanga (2,997 ha) and KwaZulu Natal (1,812 ha). These production regions are characterized by warm subtropical temperatures favorable for grapefruit production. The cooler areas of the Eastern Cape (180 ha), Northern Cape (93 ha), and Western Cape (21 ha) have fewer plantings. The Star Ruby and Marsh are the most popular grapefruit varieties in South Africa. Star Ruby is a seedless variety and has a long harvest season running from April to September. The Marsh variety is cultivated mainly for processing. South African grapefruit is harvested from April to late June. Area Planted Post forecasts area planted to grapefruit at 9,250 hectares (ha) for 2011/12 on increased demand from new markets. Post estimates the area planted to grapefruit at 9,170 ha for 2010/11, a modest increase from the previous year on expanded market access to the United States for South African grapefruit. Grapefruit from the Northern Cape was exported to the US for the first time in 2010 after USDA’s decision to increase the number of Citrus Black Spot free areas in SA. Post revised area planted to grapefruit for 2009/10 at 9,076 ha based on industry reports. Grapefruit producers have been gradually shifting away from the Marsh variety to the Star Ruby. Since 2005, as Star Ruby prices have become more attractive to producers and worldwide consumer trends show an increasing preference for pigmented grapefruit over white. Consumption: Post forecasts 2011/12 domestic consumption of fresh grapefruit to decline to 4,000 MT on lower available supplies. Post estimates 2010/11 domestic consumption of fresh grapefruit at 5,000 MT on stable consumer demand, local consumers do not prefer grapefruit over other citrus fruits and domestic consumption figures usually do not exceed 5,000 MT. Grapefruits are expensive compared to oranges on a per unit basis. A box containing six grapefruit costs R52 in the wholesale market, while a box of 16 oranges cost R61. Post revised 2009/10 local consumption at 5,000 MT based on citrus industry reports. The majority of South African grapefruit juice is exported to the European Union (EU). The left over pulp from commercial juice extraction is a source of grapefruit oil, which is used as a flavoring in many soft drinks. The inner peel is a source of pectin and citric acid which are both used by the food industry to preserve fruits, jams, and marmalades. Naringin is also extracted from grapefruit peel, and gives tonic-water its distinctive bitter flavor. Grapefruit peel oil is also used in scented fragrances. Trade: Table 3. South Africa: Grapefruit Import Statistics South Africa Import Statistics Commodity: 080540, Grapefruit Including Pomelos, Fresh Or Dried Year Ending: December Partner country Unit Quantity 2008 2009 2010 Israel MT 188 336 409 Zimbabwe MT 0 480 151 Turkey MT 138 25 20 Other not listed MT 119 158 19 Grand total MT 445 999 599 Source: GTA Exports Post forecasts 2011/12 grapefruit exports at 230,000 MT on anticipated lower available supplies. However, Post estimates 2010/11 grapefruit exports at 238,000 MT on increased exportable supplies in the higher yielding year. Netherlands and Japan are SA’s major export markets followed by Russia. Current trade statistics show a 22 percent increase in exports compared to 2010 quantities at the same period. Table 4. South Africa Export Statistics (January – August, 2011) South Africa Export Statistics Commodity: 080540, Grapefruit, Fresh Year To Date: January – August ntity Partner Coun Uni Qua t try 2009 2010 2011 Netherlands MT 70,455 47,946 57,569 Japan MT 91,594 45,133 55,407 Russia MT 18,508 15,588 22,006 Mozambique MT 13,056 12,819 11,366 UK MT 13,463 10,229 10,373 US MT 92 184 275 Grand Total MT 362,944 171,804 210,339 Source: GTA South African grapefruit enters the European Union duty-free while Japan imposes a ten percent Most Favored Nation (MFN) duty on SA grapefruit. Russia imposes a five percent duty or $27.96/ton (whichever is the greater) while Canada, Hong Kong, and the UAE apply a zero percent MFN tariff on South African grapefruit exports. South African grapefruit can enter the US duty free under AGOA. Table 5. South Africa: Grapefruit Export Statistics South Africa Export Statistics Commodity: 080540, Grapefruit Including Pomelos, Fresh Or Dried Year Ending: December Partner country Unit Quantity 2008 2009 2010 Netherlands MT 47,791 72,932 50,098 Japan MT 59,580 91,834 45,553 Russia MT 14,070 19,509 17,424 Mozambique MT 9,605 13,059 12,820 UK MT 18,776 14,104 11,218 US MT 82 92 184 Others not listed MT 45,860 159,169 42,313 Grand Total MT 195,764 370,699 179,610 Source: GTA Post revises 2009/10 export volumes for grapefruit at 187,056 MT based on industry reports. The industry figure for 2009/10 grapefruit exports are slightly different from GTA numbers, but both numbers indicate a decrease in 2009/10 grapefruit exports on short available supplies. Post recognizes this difference and has decided to use industry figures in the PSD given they reflect the current situation, while the GTA table shows the individual countries exports to SA. Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Table 6. Production, Supply, and Distribution – Grapefruit, Fresh Grapefruit, Fresh South 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Africa Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Mar 2010 Mar 2011 Mar 2012 USDA New USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post Official Post Area Planted 9,100 9,076 9,150 9,170 9,250 (HECTARES) Area Harvested 9,100 9,076 9,150 9,170 9,250 (HECTARES) Bearing Trees 8,200 8,478 8,250 8,500 8,600 (1000 TREES) Non-Bearing Trees 1,000 598 1,054 700 800 (1000 TREES) Total No. Of Trees 9,200 9,076 9,304 9,230 9,400 (1000 TREES) Production 343 343 377 370 360 (1000 MT) Imports 1 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Total Supply 344 343 377 370 360 (1000 MT) Exports 187 187 221 238 230 (1000 MT) Fresh Dom. Consumption 5 5 4 5 4 (1000 MT) For Processing 152 151 152 127 126 (1000 MT) Total Distribution 344 343 377 370 360 (1000 MT) TS=TD 0 0 0 Commodities: Oranges, Fresh Production: Post forecasts SA’s 2011/12 orange production (Valencia and Navel) at 1,400 MMT as more trees will reach full bearing potential. Post estimates SA’s 2010/11 orange production (Valencia and Navel) to decline by five percent to 1.35 MMT on bad weather conditions that affected some of the citrus producing region. Hail storms in the Groblersdal and Marble Hall production areas of Mpumalanga Province negatively affected the oranges during the flowering stage. Although the Orange River region was also negatively affected by bad weather and floods in December 2010, the impact on citrus was minimal. Post revises 2009/10 total orange production at 1.428 MMT based on industry reports. South African oranges are comprised of two varieties: Valencias and the Navels. Valencia is the most popular variety preferred by producers due to higher yields and longer shelf life than Navels. The two leading production regions for Valencia are Limpopo and Mpumalanga (although Valencia oranges are also grown in Eastern Cape and Western Cape on a smaller scale). Approximately 49 percent of Valencias are grown in Limpopo which is characterized by warm to hot climatic conditions. The main cultivars for Valencias are Delta and Midnight, and the harvest season extends from July to September. The three leading regions for Navel production are Eastern Cape, Western Cape, and Mpumalanga. Unlike Valencia oranges, Navels require cooler growing conditions as can be found in the aforementioned provinces. The main cultivars for Navels are Palmer, and the harvest season extends from June to July. Area Planted Post forecasts area planted to oranges to increase to 40,300 ha for 2011/12, on increased demand from international markets. Post estimates area planted to oranges will reach 40,000 ha in 2010/11, on increased plantings to Valencia oranges. Producers favor Valencia oranges over other cultivar as they bear higher yields and have a longer shelf life. Post revised area planted to oranges in 2009/10 at 39,618 ha on increased plantings for Valencia. Consumption: Post forecasts 2011/12 and 2010/11fresh local orange consumption to remain flat at 136,000 MT on static consumer demand and industry’s trend of availing the same quantity for the local market. Post revised the 2009/10 local consumption at 135,000 MT based on industry reports of static consumer demand. Fresh oranges are popular in South Africa and are widely consumed. Oranges form part of the national food basket of goods which is monitored quarterly by the South African National Marketing Council (NAMC) to track food price inflation. The Johannesburg and Tshwane Fresh Produce markets rank fresh oranges among the top consumed fruits in South Africa and the price for a 15 kilogram bag costs R61. Oranges destined for the local market are consumed as fresh fruit or processed as orange juice. Trade: Imports Post forecasts 2011/12 SA orange imports to remain flat at less than 2,000 MT on the country’s ability to satisfy domestic demand. Post estimates SA 2010/11 orange imports to reach 1,400 MT based on slight decline in available supplies. South African producers are largely able to satisfy domestic demand but imports from Israel occur around November and December to close supply gaps and satisfy year- long demand. Table 7. South Africa: Orange Import Statistics South Africa Import Statistics Commodity: 080510, Oranges, Fresh Or Dried Year Ending: December Partner country Unit Quantity 2008 2009 2010 Zimbabwe MT 3,934 1,140 1,022 Israel MT 480 355 187 Other not listed MT 2,370 204 46 Grand total MT 6,784 1,699 1,255 Source: GTA Exports Post forecasts 2011/12 orange exports to reach 1.015 MMT on increased production. Post estimates 2010/11 orange exports at 955,000 MT, a nine percent decline from the previous year on lower available supplies. The decline in production was a result of hail damage in production regions. Higher stock availability in competitor countries also hampered SA citrus exports. Egyptian stocks (held back due to uprisings) supplied the Russia market, which created challenges for SA exports by forcing the industry to divert product to Middle Eastern and Asian markets. Regardless of the challenging first part of the season, price recovery has been observed. Post revised 2009/10 orange exports to 1.045 MMT based on industry reports. Although the EU has been SA’s traditional market, industry reports show that citrus shipments to new markets, like the Middle East and Russia, are increasing. Industry officials posit that these markets have recovered from the global recession, while sluggish demand persists in Europe, UK, and Japan. South African oranges enter the European Union (Netherlands, UK, Italy and Belgium) through a preferential tariff for South Africa. The tariffs are the result of the Trade, Development and Cooperation Agreement (TDCA) between the European Union and South Africa while South African oranges gain access into the USA through both the African Growth and Opportunities Act (AGOA) and the General System of Preferences (GSP). Industry figures for 2009/10 orange exports are slightly different from the GTA numbers but both numbers indicate an increase in 2010 orange exports on good weather conditions. Post recognizes this difference and has decided to use industry figures in the PSD given they reflect the current situation, while the GTA table shows the individual countries exports to SA. Table 8. South Africa: Orange Export Statistics South Africa Export Statistics Commodity: 080510, Oranges, Fresh Or Dried Partner country Unit Quantity 2008 2009 2010 Netherlands MT 189,823 151,982 197,813 Russia MT 102,747 98,490 138,939 United Arab Emirates MT 79,849 100,743 104,064 Saudi Arabia MT 138,308 72,204 88,914 United Kingdom MT 82,856 71,441 69,711 Mozambique MT 48,390 39,799 52,764 US MT 32,645 28,053 34813 Other not listed MT 402,587 499,303 687,018 Grand total MT 1,077,205 1,033,962 1,109,611 Source: GTA Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Table 9. Production, Supply, and Distribution Data – Oranges, Fresh Oranges, Fresh South A 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 frica Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Mar 2010 Mar 2011 Mar 2012 USDA New USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post Official Post Area Planted 40,000 39,618 40,300 40,000 40,300 (HECTARES) Area Harvested 40,000 39,618 40,300 40,000 40,300 (HECTARES) Bearing Trees 38,250 37,156 39,100 38,250 39,100 (1000 TREES) Non-Bearing Trees 2,800 2,462 3,100 2,800 3,100 (1000 TREES) Total No. Of Trees 41,050 39,618 42,200 41,050 42,200 (1000 TREES) Production 1,428 1,428 1,309 1,350 1,400 (1000 MT) Imports 1 1 1 1 1 (1000 MT) Total Supply 1,429 1,429 1,310 1,351 1,401 (1000 MT) Exports 1,045 1,045 930 955 1,015 (1000 MT) Fresh Dom. Consumption 135 135 135 136 136 (1000 MT) For Processing 249 249 245 260 250 (1000 MT) Total Distribution 1,429 1,429 1,310 1,351 1,401 (1000 MT) TS=TD 0 0 0 Commodities: Orange Juice Production: Post forecasts 2011/12 oranges destined for processing at 250,000 MT, a four percent decline on strong competition from oranges destined for fresh markets. Post estimates 2010/11 oranges destined for processing increases to 260,000 MT, on higher volumes directed to processing due to poor export market performance for fresh oranges in the beginning of the season. Post revised 2009/10 oranges destined for processing at 249,000 MT, a 23 percent decline from the previous year on strong competition from the fresh market. Oranges destined for processing compete against fresh oranges for the fresh export as producers receive a higher premium in the fresh markets. Industry statistics (production) for orange juice (200911, 200912, and 200919) are largely unavailable in SA given the highly competitive nature of the industry. SA has approximately 16 fruit juice processors with three of the largest facilities in Limpopo and Eastern Cape. The production, supply, and distribution data are comprised of information extracted from various sources and represent Post’s best effort to estimate statistics for orange juice. Data was derived from visits to citrus processors and information extracted from sources primarily focused on ready to drink juices in domestic market, such as Euromonitor. Consumption: Post forecasts 2011/12 domestic consumption for orange juice at 6,000 MT on competition from other non fruit beverages. Post estimates 2010/11 domestic consumption for orange juice at 10,000 MT on competition to export market. In the local market, orange juice is commonly used to blend with other fruit juices and is also sold to local dairy processors for use in products like yoghurt. SA oranges have a high acid to sugar ratio which forces juice makers to blend orange juice with other fruits. According to Euromonitor, consumers are returning to purchasing the not from concentrate100 percent juice in 2010, compared to the 2009 trend of purchasing the 100 percent reconstituted juice which is little cheaper compared to the former. Orange, apple and mango remain the most popular juice flavors in South Africa. The most popular juice brands in SA are the Pick ‘n’ Pay, Liqui - fruit, Clover, Clover Nectar and Fruittree. Trade: Imports Post forecasts 2011/12 orange juice imports to reach 450 MT on lower deliveries to processors due to competition in the fresh produce market. Post expects SA imports to be no more than 400 MT in 2010/11, as South Africa produces sufficient supplies to meet domestic demand. Orange juice imports typically come from Brazil, Spain and Zimbabwe. Exports Post forecasts 2011/12 orange juice exports at 18,000 MT on competition from oranges destined for fresh consumption. Post expects 2010/11 exports of orange juice at 19,500 MT on increased supplies as producers diverted higher volumes to processing this year due to poor conditions in the fresh market. The main export markets for SA orange juice are Netherlands, Israel, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Angola. Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Table 10. Production, Supply, and Distribution Data – Orange Juice Orange Juice South A 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 frica Market Year Begin: Apr Market Year Begin: Apr Market Year Begin: Apr 2010 2011 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Deliv. To Processors 249,000 249,000 245,000 260,000 250,000 (MT) Beginning Stocks 13,029 13,029 8,282 6,289 589 (MT) Production 22,410 22,410 22,050 23,400 23,000 (MT) Imports 399 398 400 400 450 (MT) Total Supply 35,838 35,837 30,732 30,089 24,039 (MT) Exports 15,556 17,548 17,500 19,500 18,000 (MT) Domestic Consumption 12,000 12,000 9,500 10,000 6,000 (MT) Ending Stocks 8,282 6,289 3,732 589 39 (MT) Total Distribution 35,838 35,837 30,732 30,089 24,039 (MT) TS=TD 0 0 0 GTA import/ export figures converted to 65 – degrees brix basis Commodities: Soft Citrus, Fresh Production Post forecasts 2011/12 SA soft citrus production at 160,000 MT, on an increase in the number of trees coming into full bearing potential. Post estimates 2011/12 SA soft citrus production at 155,000 MT, on a bumper crop from the Eastern Cape production region. Good growing conditions lead to high yields in the Eastern Cape. Post revised 2009/10 soft fruit production at 145,799 MT, a six percent decline when compared to the previous year, on drought in the Eastern Cape. Soft citrus grows best in the cool climatic conditions of the Eastern Cape and Western Cape regions. The SA soft citrus cultivars are Clementines, Mandarins, Naartjie, and Satsuma, with Clementines being the most popular cultivar. Area Planted Post expects the area planted to soft citrus in 2010/11 will reach 5,000 ha based on growing consumer demand in new markets. Of the citrus types, the soft citrus is attractive to producers as it has very good export margins on its easy peeling and seedless characteristics. Post revised the 2009/10 area planted to soft citrus at 4,960 ha based on industry reports. Although the cost of establishing new orchards in increasing, the returns from the growing demand in the United States and other markets is offsetting the costs. Industry officials expect area planted to continue expanding over the next three to five years. Consumption: Post forecasts local fresh domestic soft citrus consumption to remain flat at 9,000 MT based on continued static domestic demand. Post estimates local consumption of South African soft citrus to static at 9,000 MT in 2010/11 on stable demand. Domestic consumption of soft citrus has been stable at approximately 9,000MT for the past four years. The small size of soft citrus along with its easy-peeling nature and seedless characteristics make soft citrus a desirable snack for both children and adults. The average price in local markets for soft citrus was R3,042 per ton in 2009. Post revised 2009/10 local consumption at 9,045 MT based on industry reports. Trade: Imports Post forecasts 2011/12 soft citrus imports to remain flat at less than 1,000 MT on stable domestic demand. Post estimates 2010/11 soft citrus imports at 750 MT, as South Africa can meet its domestic demand (Note: In the PSD tables, quantities below 1,000 MT are displayed as zero). Imports from Israel occur in November and December to close the gap and provide year long availability. Table 11. South Africa: Soft Citrus Import Statistics South Africa Import Statistics Commodity: 080520, Mandarins(Tang & Sats)Clementines & Wil- Kings &Sim Citrus Hybrids,Fresh/Dried Year Ending: December Partner country Unit Quantity 2008 2009 2010 Israel MT 467 364 548 Spain MT 215 171 181 Turkey MT 120 102 22 Other not listed MT 0 23 0 Grand total MT 802 660 751 Source: GTA Exports Post forecasts 2011/12 soft fruit exports at 125,000 MT on available exportable supplies. Post estimates 2010/11 soft citrus exports at 120,000 MT, a six percent increase from the previous year on increased exportable available supplies. Post revises 2009/10 soft citrus exports at 113,034 MT, a ten percent increase from the previous year, on higher available supplies. Of all the SA citrus fruit, soft citrus had the highest export profit margin of R4, 631 per ton in 2009/10. The United Kingdom is the leading importer of soft citrus but producers are finding new opportunities in the Middle East and Russia. Growers also consider the United States an increasingly important market for future soft citrus exports. European Union member states impose a 1.6 percent preferential tariff for South Africa for all naartjies originating from South Africa. Russia imposes a five percent or $41.93 /ton (whichever in the greater) general tariff Most Favored Nation (MFN) while Canada, Hong Kong, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia impose a zero percent MFN duty. South African naartjies enter the US duty-free as a result of AGOA preferences. Industry figures for 2009/10 for soft citrus exports are slightly different from GTA numbers; however both numbers indicate a decrease in 2010 exports. Post recognizes this difference and has decided to use industry figures in the PSD given they reflect the current situation, while the GTA table shows the individual countries exports to SA. Table 12. South Africa: Soft Citrus Export Statistics South Africa Exports Statistics Commodity: 080520, Mandarins(Tang & Sats)Clementines & Wil- Kings &Sim Citrus Hybrids,Fresh/Dried Year Ending: December Partner country Unit Quantity 2008 2009 2010 UK MT 48,207 55,585 45,266 Netherlands MT 17,719 14,798 18,932 Russia MT 13,028 8,430 12,136 United States MT 4,370 6,427 8,448 United Arab Emirates MT 3,341 5,337 5,393 Other not listed MT 25,584 36,562 25,703 Grand total MT 112,249 127,139 115,878 Source: GTA Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Table 13. Production, Supply, and Distribution Data – Soft Citrus, Fresh Tangerines/Mandarins, Fresh South A 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 frica Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Jul 2010 Jul 2011 Jul 2012 USDA New USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post Official Post Area Planted 5,000 4,960 5,200 5,000 5,040 (HECTARES) Area Harvested 5,000 4,960 5,200 5,000 5,040 (HECTARES) Bearing Trees 4,750 4,779 4,820 4,800 4,820 (1000 TREES) Non-Bearing Trees 400 181 500 200 250 (1000 TREES) Total No. Of Trees 5,150 4,960 5,320 5,000 5,070 (1000 TREES) Production 146 146 155 155 160 (1000 MT) Imports 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Total Supply 146 146 155 155 160 (1000 MT) Exports 113 113 120 120 125 (1000 MT) Fresh Dom. Consumption 9 9 9 9 9 (1000 MT) For Processing 24 24 26 26 26 (1000 MT) Total Distribution 146 146 155 155 160 (1000 MT) TS=TD 0 0 0 Commodities: Lemons, Fresh Production: Post forecasts 2011/12 lemon production at 240,000 MT a modest increase as more trees reach full bearing potential. Post estimates 2010/11 lemon production at 230,000 MT, on good growing conditions in The Sundays River Valley in the Eastern Cape which is the top lemon producing region in South Africa. A good growing season, characterized by good winter rains and perfect seasonal conditions, had a positive impact on lemon yields. Post revised 2009/10 lemon production at 217,989 MT, about one percent up from the previous year. Hail impacted the Groblersdal area, the second largest production area, but the damage was minimal. Approximately 44 percent of lemons are grown in the Eastern Cape and the most popular cultivar is Eureka. Some lemon producers have tried producing a seedless lemon variety of Eureka. Seedless fruit is sought after in the Western countries where it attracts premium prices, but the first seedless lemons developed in South Africa have been reportedly disappointing. The seedless variety of Eureka has low yields, is susceptible to root rot, and has proved costly in terms of production. Area Planted Post expects 2010/11 area planted to lemons will continue to increase to 4,460 ha to supply strong demand from Middle Eastern countries. Post revises area planted to lemons in 2009/10 at 4,449 ha based on industry reports on increased lemon plantings which almost doubled in 2010. Lemons are favored by producers as they have higher margins in export markets. Consumption: Post forecasts 2011/12 local consumption to remain flat at 11,000 MT on stable domestic demand. Post estimates 2010/11 local consumption to increase slightly to 11,000 MT on higher available supplies. Post revises the 2009/10 local domestic consumption at 11,372 MT based on industry reports. Lemons are used as flavorings for grilled or fried poultry and fish dishes. Lemon juice can also be used in the drink, cleaning and pharmaceutical industries. In the food industry, lemon juice is used as a flavor agent, in cakes, tarts, biscuits, candies, ice creams and salad dressing sauces while in the drink industry, it used to make lemonade, smoothies, juices and liquors. In the cleaning industry, lemon juice has been used as a degreaser and disinfectant, due to its high concentration of citric acid, which can inhibit the proliferation of some molds and bacteria. Trade: Imports Post forecasts 2011/12 lemon imports to remain flat at less than 1,000 MT on stable local demand. Post estimates 2010/11 imports for fresh lemons to remain at 54 MT, as SA can supply its domestic market (Note: In the PSD tables, quantities below 1,000 MT are displayed as zero). Imports come from El Salvador, Israel and Zimbabwe with El Salvador dominating the market as a counter seasonal producer, which fills the demand gap after July. Table 14. South Africa: Lemons Import Statistics South Africa Import Statistics Commodity: 080550, Lemons (Citrus Limon/Limonum) & Limes (Citrus Aurantifolia/Latifolia), Fr/Dried Year Ending: December Partner country Unit Quantity 2008 2009 2010 El Salvador MT 22 0 22 Israel MT 11 46 4 Zimbabwe MT 24 0 8 Other not listed MT 39 50 20 Grand total MT 96 96 54 Source: GTA Exports Post forecasts 2011/12 lemon exports at 170,000 MT on available exportable supplies. Post estimates 2010/11 lemon exports at 160,000 MT, a ten percent increase resulting from big yields in the Sundays River production region. Current GTA figures show a ten percent increase in exports compared to 2010 quantities at the same period. The Middle East is a major importer of SA lemons. In 2010, 34 percent of SA exports were destined for the Middle East with United Arab Emirates being the major importer. Table 15. South Africa: Lemons Exports Statistics South Africa Export Statistics Commodity : 080550, Lemons (Citrus Limon/Limonum) & Limes (Citrus Aurantifolia/Latifolia), Fr/Dried Year To Date: January - September Partner country Unit Quantity 2009 2010 2011 Russia MT 27,776 21,557 26,952 United Arab Emirates MT 130,355 27,771 24,432 Saudi Arabia MT 63,172 18,174 20,478 Netherlands MT 13,608 21,013 19,182 United Kingdom MT 15,751 17,053 14,269 Hong Kong MT 10,043 8,560 10,125 Other not listed MT 132,286 32,972 46,531 Grand total MT 392,991 147,100 161,969 Source: GTA Post revised 2009/10 lemon exports at 144,829 MT, based on industry reports and this represents about 11 percent increase above the previous year. SA lemon producers enjoyed a good 2009/10 season since Argentina, the biggest supplier of lemons to Northern Hemisphere markets, experienced unfavorable weather conditions in the 2009/10 season. This created an opportunity for South Africa to export more lemons in 2009/10 than in 2008/09. South African lemons do not have preferential access to European markets. Limes however, enter the European Union with preferential tariffs for South Africa. In the case of the UAE, Hong Kong and Kuwait, the Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariffs apply. Table 16. South Africa: Lemon Export Statistics South Africa Exports Statistics Commodity: 080550, Lemons (Citrus Limon/Limonum) & Limes (Citrus Aurantifolia/Latifolia), Fr/Dried Year Ending: December Partner country Unit Quantity 2008 2009 2010 United Arab Emirates MT 27,294 131,196 28,370 Russia MT 8,794 28,031 21,896 Netherlands MT 27,073 13,855 21,186 Saudi Arabia MT 18,559 64,324 19,056 UK MT 23,601 15,889 17,103 Other not listed MT 60,336 143,650 42,995 Grand total MT 165,657 396,945 150,606 Source: GTA The industry figures for 2009/10 lemon exports is slightly different from the GTA number. Post recognizes this difference and has decided to use industry figures in the PSD given they reflect the current situation, while the GTA table shows the individual countries exports to SA. Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Table 17. Production, Supply, and Distribution Data – Lemons/Limes, Fresh Lemons/Limes, Fresh South A 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 frica Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Mar 2010 Mar 2011 Mar 2012 USDA New USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post Official Post Area Planted 4,800 4,449 5,080 4,460 4,480 (HECTARES) Area Harvested 4,800 4,449 5,080 4,460 4,480 (HECTARES) Bearing Trees 4,380 4,196 4,500 4,250 4,300 (1000 TREES) Non-Bearing Trees 400 252 460 400 450 (1000 TREES) Total No. Of Trees 4,780 4,448 4,960 4,650 4,750 (1000 TREES) Production 218 218 220 230 240 (1000 MT) Imports 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Total Supply 218 218 220 230 240 (1000 MT) Exports 145 145 146 160 170 (1000 MT) Fresh Dom. Consumption 11 11 12 11 11 (1000 MT) For Processing 62 62 62 59 59 (1000 MT) Total Distribution 218 218 220 230 240 (1000 MT) TS=TD 0 0 0 Policy: United States cold-steri protocol The cold-steri protocol for 2010 had been amended, with the support of the USDA, leading to a reduction in the cold-steri period from 24 days to 22 days. However, the United States and South African authorities have been unable to agree on the implementation. Thus, the protocol remains at 24 days to control false coddling moth. Extended pest-free areas for citrus black spot United States declared the following provinces and magisterial districts free of citrus black spot last year: Free State: Boshof, Fauresmith, Jacobsdal, Koffiefontein, and Philippolis North West Province: Christiania and Taung Northern Cape: Barkly-wes/west, Gordonia, Hay, Herbert, Hopetown, Kenhardt, Kimberely, Namakwaland, and Prieska Table 18. South Africa: Tariffs on Citrus Fruit Fruit type Unit General EU EFTA SADC Citrus kg 5% free 5% Free
Posted: 26 December 2011

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