Grain and Feed in South Africa - Republic

An Expert's View about Cereals, Leguminous Crops, Oil Seeds in South Africa

Posted on: 9 Mar 2010

With the current decline in the wheat price, prospects for profitable wheat production in South Africa are uncertain. This will result in producers scaling down production further in the 2010/11 marketing year and South Africa will continues its dependence on wheat imports to meet the local demand.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 2/5/2010 GAIN Report Number: South Africa - Republic of Grain and Feed Annual Annual report for corn, wheat and rice Approved By: Scott Sindelar Prepared By: Dirk Esterhuizen Report Highlights: With the current decline in the wheat price, prospects for profitable wheat production in South Africa are uncertain. This will result in producers scaling down production further in the 2010/11 marketing year and South Africa will continues its dependence on wheat imports to meet the local demand. Post forecast that around 600 000 hectares of wheat will be planted in 2010. This will on national average yields and normal weather conditions realize a wheat crop of about 1.8 million tons for the 2010/11 marketing year. The 2009/10 marketing year wheat crop is estimated at 1.9 million tons, 8.6 percent less than the previous season. Hence, about 1.4 million tons of wheat will need to be imported to meet the local demand. Post forecast that the area to be planted with corn later in 2010 for the marketing year that will start May 2011 at the same level as the current season of around 2.6 million commercial hectares. This will at a national average yields and normal climatic conditions result in a corn crop of about 12.5 million tons. South Africa?s commercial corn producers planted 2.627 million hectares with corn for the marketing year that will start in May 2010, 8 percent more than the previous season. With most of South Africa?s grain producing area receiving good rains in January, the country is set in producing another corn surplus this season. It is expected that the demand for rice will normalize again in the 2009/10 marketing year due to lower rice prices and rice imports by South Africa are expected to increase to 885,000 tons. Executive Summary: Post estimates that South Africa?s wheat producers will scale down production even further in the 2010/11 marketing season with only around 600 000 hectares of wheat that will be planted. This will on national average yields and normal weather conditions realize a wheat crop of about 1.8 million tons for the 2010/11 marketing year. For the 2009/10 marketing year the wheat crop in South Africa is estimated at 1.946 million tons on 647,500 hectares. This represents an 8.6 percent decrease in production from the 2.130 million tons produce for the 2008/09 marketing year. In the meanwhile, wheat consumption in South Africa is expected to increase due to the decrease in the wheat price and the improvement in the disposable income of households. This means that South Africa will continue its dependence on wheat imports to meet the local demand Post forecast that the area to be planted with corn later in 2010 for the marketing year that will start May 2011 and ending April 2012 (PS&D split year 2010/11) will also be around 2.600 million hectares. With the estimated decrease in wheat plantings and the fact that corn?s profitability per hectare is in most cases better compared to other crops, farmers will not decrease corn plantings despite lower prices. Production for the marketing year that will start May 2011 is forecast at 12.5 million tons. The first official corn area estimate for the marketing year that starts May 2010 was released by the Crop Estimate Committee and indicated that commercial corn producers in South Africa planted 2.627 million hectares, 8.23 percent more than the previous year. With most of the country?s grain producing area receiving good rains during January, South Africa is set in producing another corn surplus at an estimated 13 million tons. South Africa?s corn crop for the marketing year that started in May 2009 was finalized at 12.567 million tons, only 4.5 percent lower than the 13.164 million tons of the previous season. This means South Africa will be able to export about 2.0 million tons of corn. In the 2009/10 marketing year it is expected that the demand for rice will normalize again due to lower prices. Rice imports by South Africa in the 2009/10 marketing year are expected to increase to 885,000 tons, 52 percent more than the previous season. Post estimate that rice imports will increase even further in the 2010/11 marketing year to 950,000 tons. The improvement in the disposable income of households due to the improvement of economic conditions will increase the demand for rice. US$1 = Rand 7.56 (02/04/10) Sources: www.sagis.org.za www.grainsa.co.za www.safex.co.za www.nda.agic.za www.agrisa.co.za Commodities: Wheat Production: With the current decline in the wheat price, prospects for profitable wheat production in South Africa are uncertain. World wheat stocks have recovered and an upswing in wheat price in the near future looks uncertain. This will result in South Africa?s wheat producers scaling down production even further in the 2010/11 marketing season (marketing year starting October 2010 and ending September 2011). Figure 1 illustrates the continues downward trend in hectares planted with wheat since the early nineties. Farmers could switch their wheat fields to canola and oats or increase livestock production. Wheat farmers in the Free State province also have the option to switch to summer crops like corn and soya beans. Post forecasts that around 600 000 hectares of wheat will be planted in 2010. This will on national average yields and normal weather conditions realize a wheat crop of about 1.8 million tons for the 2010/11 marketing year. Figure 1: The decline in hectares planted with wheat in South Africa (1970 ? 2010) Meanwhile, the 2009/10 marketing year (marketing year that started October 2009 and that will end September 2010) wheat crop in South Africa is estimated at 1.946 million tons on 647,500 hectares. This represents an 8.6 percent decrease in production from the 2.130 million tons produce for the 2008/09 marketing year. The hectares planted in the 2009/10 marketing year decreased by 13.4 percent from the 748,000 hectares planted in the 2008/09 marketing year. For the 2009/10 marketing year, however, the national average yield at 3.0 tons per hectare is higher than the 2.8 tons per hectare for the 2008/09 marketing year. The increase in yield was mainly due to good weather conditions throughout the season in most parts of the wheat production areas in South Africa. The exception is the Swartland region in the Western Cape that received cold, wind, and rain during harvest time that influenced the quality of the wheat. Table 1 contains the production details of wheat by provinces in South Africa for the 2008/09 and 2009/10 marketing years. In the Free State province, one of the main dry land wheat producing areas in South Africa, 16 percent less wheat was planted for the 2009/10 marketing year compared to the previous season. In the Western Cape, the other main dry land wheat producing area in South Africa, 13 percent less wheat was planted. In the other provinces wheat is mainly produced under irrigation explaining the higher average yields in those provinces. Table 1: Area planted and production of wheat by provinces in South Africa Marketing year 2008/09 2009/10 (Actual) (Estimate) Area planted Yield Production Area Yield Production Ha. Mt/ha Mt. Ha. Mt/ha Mt. (1000) W. Cape 350,000 2.46 860,000 305,000 2.30 701,500 N. Cape 50,000 6.64 332,000 44,000 6.30 277,200 Free State 280,000 2.00 560,000 235,000 2.65 622,750 E. Cape 5,500 4.00 22,000 5,000 4.00 20,000 KwaZulu 7,500 5.09 38,200 7,000 5.00 35,000 Mpumalanga 8,000 5.63 45,000 7,500 5.50 41,250 Limpopo 20,000 5.50 110,000 18,000 5.50 99,000 Gauteng 2,000 6.40 12,800 2,000 6.40 12,800 North West 25,000 6.00 150,000 24,000 5.70 136,800 TOTAL 748,000 2.85 2,130,000 647,500 3.00 1,946,300 Source: Crop Estimates Committee Consumption: Wheat consumption in South Africa is expected to increase further in the 2010/11 marketing year. The decrease in the wheat price and the improvement in the disposable income of households due to the improvement of economic conditions will increase the demand for wheat products. Wheat consumption is expected to increase by at least 3 percent from the 2009/10 marketing year to reach 3.070 million tons. In the first three month of the 2009/10 marketing year, South Africans consumed 7 percent more wheat than the same period the previous season. This increased in wheat consumption can be attributed to the decrease in local bread retail prices due to the decrease in the price of wheat. The retail price of bread in South Africa decreased in December on a year-on-year basis by 3.2 percent. Post estimates the total consumption of wheat for the 2009/10 marketing year at 2.980 million tons, 2.7 percent more than the 2.900 million tons of the 2008/09 marketing season. As a result about 1.400 million tons of wheat will need to be imported by South Africa to meet domestic demand. In Table 2 the consumption of wheat in South Africa is shown for marketing years 2008/09 (actual), 2009/10 (estimate) and 2010/11 (forecast). Table 2: Consumption of wheat in South Africa Wheat (1000 tons) Marketing year Human Animal Seed Other TOTAL 2008/09 (actual) 2.849 8 26 17 2.900 2009/10 (estimate) 2.930 8 20 22 2.980 2010/11 (forecast) 3.020 8 20 22 3.070 Source: South Africa Grain Information Service (SAGIS) and Grain SA Trade: For the 2010/11 marketing year it is estimated that South Africa will continue its dependence on wheat imports to meet local demand (see Figure 2). Imports are expected to reach 1.600 million tons in the 2010/11 marketing year. Figure 2: South Africa?s increased dependence on wheat imports to meet the local demand (1970-2010) As for the 2009/10 marketing year, South Africa has already imported 471,408 tons of wheat. Most of the wheat, 313,265 tons, was imported from Germany and the rest from the Ukraine (41,230 tons), United States (31,941 tons), Brazil (32,054 tons), Canada (27,350 tons) and Australia (25,568 tons). Total imports for the 2009/10 marketing year is expected to reach 1.400 million tons. For the 2008/09 marketing year, South Africa imported 1.201 million tons of wheat. Most of the wheat was imported from Germany (518,435 tons), Argentina (368,739 tons) and United States (113,434 tons). South Africa, however, also exports wheat to the Southern Africa region and also acts as a conduit for imported grain. For the 2009/10 marketing year 156,555 tons of wheat (117,612 ton own stock and 38,943 ton imported wheat) has already been exported to the neighboring countries. In the 2008/09 marketing year South Africa exported 375,728 tons of wheat from its own stocks to neighboring countries in the Southern Africa region and 158,402 tons of imported wheat. Zimbabwe (109,262 tons), Botswana (108,214 tons), Lesotho (85,181 tons) and Swaziland (35,865 tons) were the main markets. Import Trade Matrix Country South Africa Commodity Wheat Time Period Oct/Sept Units: Metric tons Imports for: 2008/09 2009/10* U.S. 113434 U.S. 31941 Others Others Canada 54831 27350 Argentina 368739 0 Germany 518435 313265 Australia 74714 25568 Ukraine 13521 41230 Total for Others 1030240 407413 Others not Listed 573790 63995 Grand Total 1201053 471408 * From 10/01/2009 to 01/30/2010 Export Trade Matrix Country South Africa Commodity Wheat Time Period Oct/Sept Units: Metric ton Exports for: 2008/09 2009/10* U.S. 0 U.S. 0 Others Others Botswana 108214 39999 Lesotho 85181 22729 Swaziland 35865 15382 Namibia 21585 4548 Zambia 11671 0 Zimbabwe 109262 34437 Total for Others 371778 117095 Others not Listed 3950 517 Grand Total 375728 117612 * From 10/01/2009 to 01/30/2010 Policy: There is continuous lobbying by the South African wheat farmers for more tariff protection against cheaper imported wheat. Farmers argue that they cannot continue to produce wheat in South Africa profitably anymore and are even asking for subsidies. Wheat farmers also argue that an increase in the price of bread caused by higher tariffs would be well worth the effect a revival of wheat production in South Africa would have on rural economic development and improvement in food security. However, the farmers? arguments are considered weak when compared to the low income status of the majority of South Africans for whom bread is an important food source. Marketing: The SAFEX prices for wheat as of 01/29/2010 are shown in the following Table. Local wheat prices have decreased significantly since the ?commodity price boom? in 2008 (see Figure 3). Wheat prices are currently 26 percent lower than the same time last year and 40 percent lower than two years ago. Table 3: SAFEX future prices for wheat SAFEX Futures prices (01/30/2009) Commodity 2010/02 2010/03 2010/05 2010/07 2010/09 Wheat R2073/t R2090/t R2120/t R2160/t R2190/t ($274/t) ($276/t) ($280/t) ($286/t) ($290/t) Source: SAFEX Fig ure 3: The declining trend in the SAFEX price for wheat since January 2008 Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: 2008 2009 2010 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 Market Year Begin: Oct Market Year Begin: Oct Market Year Begin: Oct Wheat South 2008 2009 2010 Africa USDA Official A Official D N USD ew ata P D N USDA ew ata ost P Official Jan ost Data Data Data Data Area Harvested 748 748 748 658 650 648 600 Beginning Stocks 622 575 622 667 652 677 693 Production 2,130 2,080 2,130 2,000 1,800 1,946 1,800 MY Imports 1,477 1,180 1,201 1,500 1,300 1,400 1,600 TY Imports 1,500 950 1,500 1,500 1,000 1,500 1,700 TY Imp. from U.S. 285 0 285 0 0 100 100 Total Supply 4,229 3,835 3,953 4,167 3,752 4,023 4,093 MY Exports 352 340 376 300 300 350 350 TY Exports 300 300 300 300 200 300 300 Feed and Residual 10 2 8 10 5 8 8 FSI Consumption 3,200 2,841 2,892 3,200 2,875 2,972 3,062 Total Consumption 3,210 2,843 2,900 3,210 2,880 2,980 3,070 Ending Stocks 667 652 677 657 572 693 673 Total Distribution 4,229 3,835 3,953 4,167 3,752 4,023 4,093 Yield 3. 3. 2.8476 3. 3. 3.0031 3. Commodities: Corn Production: Post forecast that the area to be planted with corn later in 2010 for the marketing year that will start May 2011 and ending April 2012 (2011/12 marketing year for South Africa and split year 2010/11 in the PS&D table) will be at the same level as this season. With the estimated decrease in wheat plantings and the fact that corn?s profitability per hectare is in most cases better compared to other crops, farmers can not decrease corn plantings despite lower prices. Hence, it is forecast that around 2.6 million commercial hectares and 500,000 subsistence hectares of corn will be planted later in 2010 under normal climatic conditions. This will, on a national average result in a crop of about 12.5 million tons. The first area estimate for the marketing year starting May 2010 and ending April 2011 year, (2010/11 marketing year for South Africa and split year 2009/10 in the PS&D table) was released by the Crop Estimate Committee (CEC) on January, 21. According to the CEC commercial corn producers in South Africa planted 2.627 million hectares, 8.23 percent more than the previous year. White corn hectares increased by 10.93 percent to 1.652 million hectares and yellow corn hectares by 3.94 percent to 975,500. The CEC?s area estimates clearly show a shift away from sunflower (a 32.89 percent decrease in hectares) and sorghum (a 19.30 percent decrease in hectares) production towards more corn and soya beans (15.60 percent increase in hectares planted) production. This increase in hectares planted with corn happened despite the expectations of below normal rainfall due to El Nino conditions, a substantial drop in corn prices and Grain SA?s recommendation to the farmers to plant only 2.2 million hectares of corn, 9.8 percent less than the previous season. One possible reason for the increase in corn planting is the fact that 13.4 percent less wheat was planted during the winter season due to the unprofitability of wheat production in South Africa. Many of these wheat fields were planted with corn this season. Another reason is that corn production?s profitability possibilities in many instances are better compared to other field crops due to better corn cultivars and biotechnology. With most parts of South Africa?s grain producing area receiving good rains during January, an average commercial national corn yield of close to five tons per hectare is again possible this season. With 2.6 million commercial hectares planted with corn and approximately 500,000 hectares in the subsistence farming sector, South Africa is likely to produce a corn surplus again this season. South Africa?s commercial corn crop for the marketing year that started in May 2009 and will be ending in April 2010, the 2009/10 marketing year, (2009/10 marketing year for South Africa and split year 2008/09 in the PS&D table) was finalized at 12.050 million tons on 2.428 million hectares. The expected corn crop for the subsistence farming sector is estimated at 516,633 tons on 468,683 hectares. Therefore, South Africa?s final corn crop for the marketing year that started in May 2009 is 12.567 million tons, only 4.5 percent lower than the 13.164 million tons of the previous season. The hectares planted of 2.897 million are 12.2 percent less then the previous season?s 3.300 million hectares. The commercial white corn crop for the 2009/10 marketing year was finalized at 6,775 million tons, 9.4 percent less then the previous season. The commercial yellow corn crop for the 2009/10 marketing year was finalized at 5.275 million tons, 1.0 percent more than the previous season. The average commercial national corn yield increased from 4.54 tons/hectare in the previous season to a record 4.96 tons/hectare for the 2009/10 marketing year. The following table details area planted and production figures of white and yellow commercial corn for the 2009/10 (actual), 2010/11 (estimate) and 2011/12 (forecast) South African marketing years. Table 4: Area planted and production of commercial corn in South Africa CORN Area Yield Prod. Area Yield Prod. Area Yield Prod. 000ha t/ha 000 t 000ha t/ha 000 t 000ha t/ha 000 t Marketing 2009/ 2010/ 2011/ year 10 11 12 White 1.489 4.6 6.775 1.652 4.4 7.335 1.600 4.2 6.720 Yellow 939 5.6 5.275 976 5.3 5.173 1.000 5.2 5.240 TOTAL 2.428 5.0 12.050 2.627 4.8 12.507 2.600 4.6 11.960 Source: SAGIS and CEC Table 5 indicates the area planted with commercial corn by provinces in South Africa. It is especially white corn producers in the Free State (16.8 percent more) and North West (11.6 percent more) provinces that increased their corn planting in the 2010/11 South African marketing year. Yellow corn producers in North West (18.5 percent more) and Mpumalanga (4.9 percent more) increased their plantings in the 2010/11 marketing year. Table 5: Area planted with commercial corn by province in South Africa Marketing years 2009/10 (Actual) 2010/11 (Estimate) Area Area 1000 Ha 1000 Ha WHITE CORN Western Cape 2 1 Northern Cape 3 2 Free State 565 660 Eastern Cape 3 3 KwaZulu-Natal 40 46 Mpumalanga 215 225 Limpopo 33 22 Gauteng 69 68 North West 560 625 TOTAL 1.489 1.652 YELLOW CORN Western Cape 4 2 Northern Cape 48 51 Free State 390 380 Eastern Cape 13 14 KwaZulu-Natal 42 42 Mpumalanga 262 275 Limpopo 15 19 Gauteng 30 34 North West 135 160 TOTAL 939 976 TOTAL Western Cape 5 3 Northern Cape 51 53 Free State 955 1.040 Eastern Cape 16 17 KwaZulu-Natal 82 88 Mpumalanga 477 500 Limpopo 48 41 Gauteng 99 102 North West 695 785 TOTAL 2.428 2.627 Source: CEC Consumption: For the South African 2011/12 marketing year, corn for human consumption (mainly white corn) is expected to be on the same level as in the 2010/11 marketing year. Corn for feed purposes (mainly yellow corn) is, however, expected to increase. As general economic conditions improve consumers will substitute corn products for wheat products or other starch products and eat more meat products. Total commercial corn consumption for the 2011/12 marketing year is expected to be around 9.850 million tons, with 4.750 million tons used in products for human consumption and 4.500 million tons used for animal feed. Please note that consumption figures in the PS&D table include corn utilized by the subsistence farming sectors (estimated at approximately 500,000 tons). In the South African 2010/11 marketing season it is estimated that human and animal consumption of corn will increase from the previous season mainly due to relatively lower corn prices. This increase is expected to be 1.8 percent for human consumption and 2.3 percent for animal consumption. Hence, total commercial corn consumption is estimated at 9.650 million tons. The following table outlines the commercial consumption for white and yellow corn for the 2009/10 (estimate), 2010/11 (estimate) and 2011/12 (forecast) marketing years: Table 6: The commercial consumption of white and yellow corn in South Africa CORN White Yellow Total White Yellow Total White Yellow Total 000 t Marketing 2009/ 2010/ 2011/ year 10 11 12 Human 4.300 365 4.665 4.400 350 4.750 4.400 350 4.750 Animal 200 4.000 4.200 200 4.100 4.300 200 4.300 4.500 Other 250 400 650 200 400 600 200 400 600 TOTAL 4.850 4.765 9.515 4.800 4.750 9.650 4.800 5..050 9.850 Source: SAGIS, Grain SA Trade: In the marketing years starting May 2010 and 2011 South Africa is expected to continue its corn exports. Post estimated that these exports will be around 2.5 million tons per annum. For the 2009/10 marketing year so far, from May 1, 2009 to January 29, 2010, South Africa exported 1.299 million tons of corn, mostly white corn. Kenya (772,661 tons), Botswana (118,785 tons) and Mozambique (112,140 tons) were the primary destinations. It is estimated that South Africa will export about 2.0 million tons of corn in the 2009/10 marketing year. Table 7 indicates the destination of South Africa?s corn exports. Table 7: Export and Import Countries for white and yellow corn for marketing 2009/10 (1 000 tons) Marketing year 2009/10 (1 May 2009 ? 29 January 2010) White corn Yellow corn Export Destinations Angola Botswana 94 25 Benin Cameroon 1 2 Chad 1 Congo Ethiopia Ghana Guinea Iran 37 Kenya 758 15 Lesotho 75 1 Mauritius Madagascar 1 6 Malaysia Malawi Mozambique 93 19 Namibia 45 19 Senegal 8 Seychelles 1 Somalia Swaziland 10 38 Tanzania Yemen Zambia Zimbabwe 48 4 TOTAL EXPORTS 1.125 174 Import Suppliers Brazil 27 TOTAL IMPORTS 0 27 Source: SAGIS Marketing: The SAFEX prices as of January 29, 2010 are shown in Table 8. Currently, white corn prices are at R1,170 per ton and yellow corn prices at R1,221 per ton. Current white corn prices are 34 percent lower than the same period in 2009 and 35 percent lower than in 2008. Current yellow corn prices are 28 percent lower than the same period in 2009 and 36 percent lower than in 2008 (see also figure 4). Downward pressures on the local corn price are expected to continue due to the record corn crop in the United States, the relative strong rand exchange rate, the increase in hectares planted with corn in South Africa and favorable local climatic conditions. Table 8: SAFEX prices for corn SAFEX Futures prices (01/29/2010) Commodity 2010/02 2010/03 2010/05 2010/07 2010/09 White corn R1170t R1173/t R1184/t R1189/t R1226/t ($155/t) ($155/t) ($157/t) ($157/t) ($162/t) Yellow corn R1221/t R1235/t R1240/t R1236/t R1277/t ($162/t) ($163/t) ($164/t) ($163/t) ($169/t) Figure 4: The declining trend in the SAFEX price for corn since January 2008 Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: PS&D Table 2008 2009 2010 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 C Market Year Begin: May 2009 Market Year Begin: Ma Market Year Begin: May y 2010 orn South 2011 Africa USDA Official ficial USDA D N USDA Of ew ata P D New ata Jan ost P Official ost Data Data Data Data Area Harvested 2,896 2,897 2,897 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 Beginning Stocks 3,090 3,130 3,090 3,182 3,722 3,684 4,009 Production 12,567 12,567 12,567 11,500 13,000 13,000 12,500 MY Imports 25 25 27 25 25 25 25 TY Imports 27 25 27 25 25 25 25 TY Imp. from U.S. 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 15,682 15,722 15,684 14,707 16,747 16,709 16,534 MY Exports 2,500 2,000 2,000 1,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 TY Exports 2,111 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,000 2,000 2,500 Feed and Residual 4,400 4,400 4,400 4,500 4,500 4,500 4,700 FSI Consumption 5,600 5,600 5,600 5,700 5,700 5,700 5,700 Total Consumption 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,200 10,200 10,200 10,400 Ending Stocks 3,182 3,722 3,684 3,007 4,047 4,009 3,634 Total Distribution 15,682 15,722 15,684 14,707 16,747 16,709 16,534 Yield 4. 4. 4.3379 4. 4. 4.1935 4.0323 Commodities: Rice, Milled Trade: South Africa does not produce rice, mainly due to the high water requirements of the crop in a generally dry country. Imports are duty free and consumption is based on the import data supplied by the Global Trade Atlas. South Africa?s imports of rice decreased significantly during the 2008/09 marketing year (May 2008 to April 2009) and were finalized at 580,638 tons. This decrease in rice imports was mainly due to the huge increase in the global price of rice and also the availability of rice due to export restrictions implemented by many rice producing countries including India, South Africa?s second largest source of imports. Thailand with more than 70 percent market share is South Africa?s major source of rice. In the 2009/10 marketing year it is expected that the demand for rice will normalize again due to lower prices. In South Africa the average retail price for a two kg bag of rice decreased by 11.42 percent from October 2008 to October 2009 and now costs around R23/bag ($3/2kg bag). Rice imports by South Africa in the 2009/10 marketing year are expected to increase to 885,000 tons, 52 percent more than the previous season. From May 2009 to November 2009, South Africa already imported 516,224 tons of rice. Post estimates that rice imports will increase further in the 2010/11 marketing year to 950,000 tons. The improvement in the disposable income of households due to the improvement of economic conditions will increase the demand for rice. Table 9: Imports of rice to South Africa Marketing years 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 Total imports (1000 tons) 1,030 581 885 950 Source: World Trade Atlas Import Trade Matrix Country South Africa Commodity Rice, Milled Time Period May/April Units: MT Imports for: 2008 2009* U.S. 873 U.S. 337 Others Others Thailand 458105 363800 India 34197 14809 China 26781 56036 Vietnam 16484 4717 Brazil 33108 41147 Australia 1305 20 Pakistan 4387 20582 Uruguay 2904 2361 Paraguay 750 3625 Total for Others 578031 507097 Others not Listed 1744 9127 Grand Total 580638 516224 *01/05/2009 ± 11/30/2009 Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: 2008 2009 2010 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 R Market Year Begin: May Market Year Begin: May Market Year Begin: May ice, Milled South 2008 2009 2010 Africa USDA Official New USDA Official New USDA D n ata Post Data Post Official D Jaata Data Data Data Area Harvested 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Beginning Stocks 190 86 190 50 50 38 93 Milled Production 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Rough Production 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Milling Rate (.9999) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imports 590 665 580 750 720 885 950 TY Imports 650 665 650 800 720 800 850 TY Imp. from U.S. 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 Total Supply 780 751 770 800 770 923 1043 MY Exports 25 25 27 25 25 30 30 TY Exports 25 25 27 25 25 30 30 Consumption and Residual 705 676 705 710 680 800 900 Ending Stocks 50 50 38 65 65 93 113 Total Distribution 780 751 770 800 770 923 1043 Yield (Rough) 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
Posted: 09 March 2010

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