Rice Production Update

An Expert's View about Agriculture and Animal Husbandry in South Korea

Posted on: 16 Dec 2011

South Korea's rice production in 2011 is the lowest it has been in more than 30 years due in large part to the steady decline in acreage planted. The Ministry of Food, Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries (MIFAFF) is considering lowering the average milling rate to reflect current production practices. A lower milling rate, if adopted, would reduce milled production estimates on average by about 3 percent.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Voluntary Public - Date: 11/29/2011 GAIN Report Number: KS1147 Korea - Republic of Post: Seoul Rice Production Update Report Categories: Grain and Feed Approved By: M. Kathryn Ting Prepared By: Sunchul Choi//Michael Francom Report Highlights: South Korea's rice production in 2011 is the lowest it has been in more than 30 years due in large part to the steady decline in acreage planted. The Ministry of Food, Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries (MIFAFF) is considering lowering the average milling rate to reflect current production practices. A lower milling rate, if adopted, would reduce milled production estimates on average by about 3 percent. General Information: Rice Production Hits 30-Year Low: On November 17, 2011, the Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS) released its final 2011rice production estimate at 4,224,019 metric tons, which is up a nominal 8,500 metric tons from the September forecast. Despite this minor upward revision, Korean rice production is still at its lowest point in more than 30 years (KS1144). Since reaching its peak in the 1970?s, rice production has been trending downward as farmers retire without being replaced and consumers? diets change. The PSD has been updated accordingly. Korea: Rice Area, Yield and Production Crop Year Area (1,00HA) Yield (KG/HA) Production (Milled, 1,000 MT) 2005 980 4,900 4,768 2006 955 4,890 4,680 2007 950 4,640 4,408 2008 936 5,180 4,843 2009 924 5,318 4,916 2010 892 4,820 4,295 2011 854 4,946 4,224 Source: Ministry of Food, Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries (MIFAFF) Korea: 2011 Rice Area, Yield and Production Type of Rice Land Area Yield (KG/HA) Production (Milled, MT) Paddy Rice 850,798 4,960 4,216,607 Upland Rice 3,025 2,450 7,412 Total 853,823 4,947 4,224,019 Source: Ministry of Food, Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries (MIFAFF) Revision of Applicable Milling Rate from Brown Rice to Milled Rice: Based on the outcome of a recent industry survey, the Ministry of Food, Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries acknowledged that the current average milling rate (paddy to milled) is too high and is considering lowering it from 74 percent to 72 percent to reflect current milling practices. Local processors are reportedly now polishing rice to a greater degree in response to consumer demand for well-milled high quality rice. In particular, as shown in the table below, the degree of milling is said to have climbed from 9 to 12. Note, the higher you go up the 12 degree spectrum the whiter the rice. The shelling rate to brown rice from paddy rice remains unchanged at 80 percent. Korea: Milling Rate to Milled Rice from Paddy Rice (Percent) Degree(s) 1 2 5 7 9 a/ 10 12 b/ % of Brown Rice Removed 0.8 1.6 4.0 5.6 7.2 8.0 9.6 % of Milled Rice Remaining 99.2 98.4 96.0 94.4 92.9 92.0 90.4 % of Shelling Rate 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 % of Milling Rate 79.36 78.72 76.80 75.52 74.32 73.60 72.32 Source: Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS) a/ milling rate applicable to date b/ milling rate to be revised in the future The following table shows a comparison of milled rice production based on milling rate of 9 degrees and 12 degrees. The change in milling rates will result in reported production of milled rice falling on average about 3 percent. However, until MIFAFF revises its official data series, PSD milling rate figures will remain unchanged. Korea: Rice Production Comparison per Milling Rate (1,000 MT, .9999) Based on 9 Degrees Based on 12 Degrees Crop Year Area (1,000 HA) Rough Rice Milled Rice Milling Rate Milled Rice Milling Rate 1995 1,056 6,389 4,694 7,347 4,568 7,150 1996 1,050 7,123 5,323 7,473 5,179 7,271 1997 1,052 7,315 5,449 7,449 5,302 7,248 1998 1,059 6,790 5,097 7,507 4,959 7,303 1999 1,066 7,066 5,263 7,448 5,121 7,247 2000 1,072 7,197 5,291 7,352 5,148 7,153 2001 1,083 7,407 5,515 7,446 5,366 7,244 2002 1,053 6,687 4,927 7,368 4,794 7,169 2003 1,016 6,151 4,451 7,236 4,331 7,041 2004 1,001 6,737 5,000 7,422 4,865 7,221 2005 980 6,435 4,768 7,409 4,640 7,211 2006 955 6,305 4,680 7,423 4,554 7,223 2007 950 5,962 4,408 7,393 4,289 7,194 2008 936 6,468 4,843 7,488 4,712 7,285 2009 924 6,502 4,916 7,561 4,787 7,362 2010 892 5,811 4,295 7,391 4,180 7,193 2011 854 5,616 4,224 7,521 4,110 7,318 Source: Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS) Rice PSD Rice, Milled Korea, R 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 epublic of Market Year Begin: Nov Market Year Begin: Nov Market Year Begin: Nov 2009 2010 2011 USDA New USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post Official P ost Area Harvested 924 924 892 892 854 854 (1000 HA) Beginning Stocks 996 996 1,453 1,508 1,278 964 (1000 MT) Milled Production 4,916 4,916 4,295 4,295 4,240 4,224 (1000 MT) Rough Production 6,502 6,502 5,804 5,810 5,730 5,616 (1000 MT) Milling Rate (.9999) 7,561 7,561 7,400 7,392 7,400 7,522 (1000 MT) MY Imports 310 306 330 330 350 350 (1000 MT) TY Imports 320 320 330 330 350 350 (1000 MT) TY Imp. from U.S. 94 95 0 95 0 100 (1000 MT) Total Supply 6,222 6,218 6,078 6,133 5,868 5,538 (1000 MT) MY Exports 4 9 3 4 3 3 (1000 MT) TY Exports 4 9 3 4 3 3 (1000 MT) Consumption and Residual 4,765 4,701 4,797 5,165 4,800 4,507 (1000 MT) Ending Stocks 1,453 1,508 1,278 964 1,065 1,028 (1000 MT) Total Distribution 6,222 6,218 6,078 6,133 5,868 5,538 (1000 MT) Yield (Rough) 7. 7.0368 7. 6.5135 7. 6.5761 (MT/HA) TS=TD 0 0 0
Posted: 16 December 2011

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