South American Corn Makes Inroads into Taiwan Market

A Lastest News about Cereals, Leguminous Crops, Oil Seeds in Taiwan

Posted on: 9 Aug 2012

This report contains revised projections for Taiwan's imports of U.S. corn in MY2011/12 and MY2012/13.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Voluntary Public - Date: 7/25/2012 GAIN Report Number: TW12019 Taiwan Post: Taipei South American Corn Makes Inroads into Taiwan Market Report Categories: Grain and Feed Approved By: Jeffery Hesse Prepared By: Chiou Mey Perng Report Highlights: This report contains revised projections for Taiwan's imports of U.S. corn in MY2011/12 and MY2012/13. Given the current price disadvantage for U.S. corn, the MY2011/12 and MY2012/13 numbers are revised downward to 1.50 and 2.10 million metric tons, respectively. General Information: While U.S. corn had already lost its once dominant position in the Taiwan market, the price spread between U.S. and other origin corn in recent months has pushed Taiwan buyers to switch to other sources, particularly Brazil and Argentina, at an even faster rate. As a result, Taiwan's imports of U.S. corn during the first nine months of MY2011/12 (Oct-June) fell sharply to only 1.24 million metric tons (MMT) compared to 2.32 MMT during the same period in MY2010/11 (see table below for more detail.) With the continued price gap and greater supplies of South American corn, Post has revised downward the MY2011/12 import estimate to 1.50 MMT. Similarly, given the negative outlook for the current U.S. corn crop and projected larger supplies of competitively-priced South American corn, Post has lowered the MY2012/13 forecast for imports of U.S. corn to 2.10 MMT. In addition to the current price advantage, local industry sources also note that Brazilian corn contains less moisture with approximately 0.5 to 1.0 percent higher protein and more desirable color attributes for Taiwan poultry feed formulations. Another factor that has helped erode the United Sates' once dominant market position is a growing trend among Taiwan importers to diversify suppliers. With this sharp decline in imports of U.S. corn, the U.S. share of the Taiwan corn import market is expected to fall to only 36 percent for MY2011/12 -- a record low U.S. market share. In response to high world corn prices, Taiwan authorities recently announced the release of about 50 TMT of old stock rice from public warehouses for feed use. This decision will have no impact on our estimate of total corn imports in MY2011/12, however, as Post's previous estimate had already anticipated 90 TMT of feed quality rice substituting for feed corn. Post will continue to monitor for any news on the release of additional quantities of feed quality rice. Taiwan: Corn Imports for Oct-Jun MY2009/10 - MY2011/12 (MMT) Country MY2009/10 MY2010/11 MY2011/12 Total 3.14 3.39 3.29 U.S. 2.42 2.32 1.24 Brazil 0.56 0.89 1.39 Argentina 0.13 0.05 0.34 India 0.02 0.07 0.20 Ukraine 0.01 nil 0.07 South Africa nil 0.05 nil Revised PSD Table for Corn (1,000 HA/1,000 MT): Corn T 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 aiwan Market Year Begin: Oct Market Year Begin: Oct Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 2011 2012 USDA ew USDA New Official New USDA NPost Official Post Official Post Area Harvested 5 5 7 7 9 9 Beginning Stocks 498 498 383 447 396 415 Production 27 27 38 38 47 47 MY Imports 4,183 4,322 4,200 4,150 4,300 4,250 TY Imports 4,183 4,322 4,200 4,150 4,300 4,250 TY Imp. from U.S. 2,781 2,828 0 1,500 0 2,100 Total Supply 4,708 4,847 4,621 4,635 4,743 4,712 MY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 TY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 Feed and Residual 4,100 4,180 4,000 4,000 4,100 4,100 FSI Consumption 225 220 225 220 225 220 Total Consumption 4,325 4,400 4,225 4,220 4,325 4,320 Ending Stocks 383 447 396 415 418 392 Total Distribution 4,708 4,847 4,621 4,635 4,743 4,712 Yield 5. 5.4 5. 5.4286 5. 5.2222 TS=TD 0 0 0 Comments AGR Number TW12019
Posted: 09 August 2012

See more from Cereals, Leguminous Crops, Oil Seeds in Taiwan

Expert Views    
Grain and Feed Annual   By Foreign Agricultural Service
Grain and Feed Annual   By Foreign Agricultural Service
Agricultural Biotechnology Annual 2012   By Foreign Agricultural Service
Agricultural Biotechnology Annual   By Foreign Agricultural Service
Oilseeds and Products Annual   By Foreign Agricultural Service