Grain and Feed Annual

An Expert's View about Cereals, Leguminous Crops, Oil Seeds in Thailand

Last updated: 6 Apr 2011

Thai rice exports to reach 10-11 million tons in 2011 and 2012.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 3/22/2011 GAIN Report Number: TH1035 Thailand Grain and Feed Annual Annual 2011 Approved By: Orestes Vasquez, Agricultural Attaché Prepared By: Ponnarong Prasertsri, Agricultural Specialist Report Highlights: TH1035 Weather conditions in 2011 will likely be favorable for MY2011/12 rice and corn production. Anticipated large supplies of rice will enable Thai rice exports to reach 10-11 million tons in 2011 and 2012. Meanwhile, exportable corn supplies will likely remain tight due to growing domestic feed consumption. However, demand for feed wheat is expected to decline due to a surge in world wheat prices. Nevertheless, food-grade wheat imports are forecast to continue their upward trend. Executive Summary: Weather conditions in 2011 are expected to be favorable for MY2011/12 crops with anticipated improvement in average yield and harvest, as compared to the unusual climate pattern from El Nino and La Nina phenomenon in the previous years. MY2011/12 rice production is forecast to increase to 20.4 million tons. The supplies from the upcoming rice harvests and the government?s ongoing stock releases will enable Thailand to attain exports of 10.0 million tons in 2011 and 2012. MY2011/12 corn production is forecast to increase to 4.2 million tons which will likely ease feed cost amid anticipated 2-3 percent growth in feed consumption. The increase in domestic demand for corn in feed industry will likely limit corn exports to 0.2 million tons. Meanwhile, corn imports will likely continue to grow, particularly from border trade with Cambodia and Laos, to fulfill domestic feed demand. Strong demand for feed grain also resulted in a surge in MY2009/10 and MY2010/11 wheat imports. However, MY2011/12 wheat import is forecast to decline in anticipation of a reduction in feed wheat demand as a surge in world wheat prices has made it less attractive for feed use. Meanwhile, import of food-grade wheat is expected to continue the upward trend of 3-5 percent growth rate. MY2011/12 Mung bean production is forecast to continue its upward trend due to attractive returns. Import demand, particularly from Burma, will likely remain high in order to meet the growing food processing industry. Commodities: Corn Rice, Milled Wheat 1. Rice 1.1 Production Rice, Milled T 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 hailand Market Year Begin: Jan Market Year Begin: Jan Market Year Begin: Jan 2010 2011 2012 USDA New USDA New Official Post O New Post fficial P USDA Officialost Area Harvested 10,940 10,940 10,700 10,667 10,860 Beginning Stocks 4,787 4,787 6,347 6,100 6,062 Milled Production 20,260 20,260 20,350 20,262 20,394 Rough Production 30,697 30,697 30,833 30,700 30,900 Milling Rate (.9999) 6,600 6,600 6,600 6,600 6,600 MY Imports 300 300 300 200 100 TY Imports 300 300 300 200 100 TY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 TotaTl Supply 25,347 25,347 26,997 26,562 able 1.1: Thaila n26,5d56 's Paddy Area, Production, and Yield MY Exports 9,000 9,047 10,000 10,000 10,000 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 (Mar 2011) 2011/12 (Mar 2011) TY Exports 9,000 9,047 10,000 10,000 10,000 Consumpt Main Crop Second Crop Total Main Crop Second Crop Total Main Crop Second Crop Total Main Crop Second Crop Totalion and Residual 10,000 10,200 10,200 10,500 10,700 EndAing Stocksr e a (m6,3i47 ll6,1i00 o6n,797 6,h062 ec t5,85a6 re) Total Distribution 25,347 25,347 26,997 26,562 Cultivation 26,556 9.256 1.984 11.240 9.265 2.011 11.276 9.256 2.027 11.283 9.256 2.027 11.283 Yield (Rough) 3. 2.8059 3. 2.878 2.8453 Harvest 8.818 1.982 10.800 8.993 1.947 10.940 8.704 1.963 10.667 8.900 1.960 10.860 Production (million ton) Rough 21.661 8.415 30.076 22.497 8.200 30.697 22.200 8.500 30.700 22.300 8.600 30.900 Rice 14.296 5.554 19.850 14.848 5.412 20.260 14.652 5.610 20.262 14.718 5.676 20.394 Yield ( ton/hectare) 2.340 4.241 2.676 2.428 4.078 2.722 2.398 4.193 2.721 2.409 4.243 2.739 Source: FAS Estimate Despite flooding damage on MY2010/11 main crop, MY2010/11 rice production is expected to increase slightly to 20.3 million tons due to bumper off-season crop production. In spite of downward pressure on farm-gate prices (Figure 1.1), cultivation areas continued to increase as farmers are hedging their risks by registering in record numbers under the government?s Price Insurance Scheme (TH0084). Average yield is expected to increase to 4.2 tons/hectare due to recoveries in reservoir levels that were critically low as of mid 2010 (Figure 1.2). Reservoirs have enough supply of water for off-season crop cultivation. In addition, the damage from plant brown hopper is reportedly marginal in major growing areas. MY2011/12 rice production is forecast to increase to 20.4 million tons in anticipation of average yield improvements due to favorable weather conditions. Cultivated areas are expected to increase to 10.9 million hectares as damaged areas from drought or flooding will likely be minimal. According to the International Research Institute for Climate and Society?s (IRI) forecast in February 2011, the probability for La Nina condition is weakening to less than 30 percent for June ? August 2011 and beyond (Figure 1.3). Also, probabilities for El Nino conditions will be 10 percent or less through April-June and rising to the 20-25 percent range from June- of 2011 and onward. In addition, the Thai Meteorological Department expects above-average precipitation during May ? July 2011 when most rain-fed main-crop cultivation will begin, which accounts for 70-80 percent of the total main-crop cultivation. Anticipated above-average precipitation will help reservoirs to supply enough water for MY2011/12 second crop. 1.2 Consumption Rice is the main staple food for Thais with per capita consumption ranging from 80 kilograms for city households to around 115 kilograms for rural households, and up to 125 kilograms for low-income household. MY2011/12 total rice consumption is forecast to grow slightly due to an increase in export- oriented food industrial use, particularly for noodle, snack, and flour applications which account for approximately 80 percent of total rice processed products exports. In addition, demand for broken rice in the feed industry, which currently accounts for around 10 percent of total rice consumption, will likely continued to increase in line with growing livestock production due to less volatility in rice prices as compared to other feed grains. 1.3 Trade According to the Ministry of Commerce?s Department of Foreign Trade, Thai rice exports increased to 9.1 million tons in 2010, up 5.3 percent from the previous year. White rice accounted for the bulk of the increase driven by gradual releases of government stocks of 4.0 million tons (mostly 5% grade white rice) since August 2010. The Government?s stock release helped Thai rice prices become attractive in the Asian and African markets, given that it was able to compete with Vietnamese rice, as prices of the released stocks were discounted 10-15 percent for age. Also, parboiled rice exports continued its upward trend, increasing by 10.2 percent from the previous year as India retains its ban on non-basmati rice exports. Figure 1.4: Thailand's Rice Exports by Month and Quality Tha Tons Thailand's Rice Exports by Quality iland's Monthly Rice Exports 5,000,000 1,200,000 4,500,000 1 4,000,000 ,000,000 3,500,000 2008 800,000 3,000,000 white rice 2009 2,500,000 parboiled rice 600,000 2010 2,000,000 fragrant rice 400 2011,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 200,000 500,000 - - Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2008 2009 2010 Source: Thai Rice Exporters Association In 2011 - 2012, Thailand rice exports will likely increase to 10.0 million tons due to large exportable supplies from the government?s stock release and anticipated bumper harvests for MY2010/11 and MY2011/12 crops. Presently, monthly rice exports remain at 0.9 ? 1.0 million tons since November 2010. The government will likely dispose of its outstanding stocks of 1.0 ? 2.0 million tons through exports within March 2011, amid carry-over of 2.0 million tons from last year?s stock release of 4.0 million tons. Large supplies of white rice, particularly from the government?s stock release, have reduced the price difference between Thai and Vietnamese white rice closer to a typical $20- 30/MT, as compared to $70-100/MT, despite the advantage of Vietnamese rice prices that became cheaper when the government devalued its currency by 9.3 percent in February 2011. Anticipated bumper MY2010/11 off-season crop and MY2011/12 will support parboiled rice export momentum of more than 3.0 million tons. In addition, competition from Indian parboiled rice will likely remain limited due to India?s export ban on premium non-basmati. Despite concerns of escalating food prices since mid-2010, export prices of Thai rice have remained more or less stable (Figure 1.6), compared to wheat prices, due to bumper rice crops and large carry- over stocks of major producing countries. Also, the Indian export ban on non-basmati rice since April 2008 is expected to be lifted in 2011 due to crop recoveries and an above normal buffer rice stock of 27.8 million tons. In addition, unlike in 2008, the Vietnamese government has not imposed rice export bans for 2010- 11. Moreover, the Thai government released its intervention stocks of 3-4 million tons for export since mid 2010 which have been slowly making it to Asian and African markets. The orders have been slow, as buyers have been cautious in placing significant orders while prices are suffering downward pressure as Thai and Vietnamese exporters try to underbid each other by offering better export terms. Table 1.2: Thailand's Rice Exports in 2010 (Jan. - Dec.) Unit: Metric Ton Rice Quality Total Fragrant rice White rice Paboiled rice Other 100% 5% 10-35% Broken rice Nigeria 71 - 2,000 - - 1,397,734 - 1 ,399,806 % change yoy -96.7 - 100.0 - - 30.9 - 30.7 Benin 18,013 1,000 24,600 9,775 - 412,229 60 4 65,676 % change yoy 50.8 100.0 407.2 -84.0 -100.0 -22.5 - -23.8 Philippines 7,424 6,461 19,315 474,520 208 2 2,989 5 10,919 % change yoy -13.4 41.7 1196.3 477.4 -98.2 - -93.7 227.4 Malaysia 64,973 9,857 68,506 1,309 12 - 39,020 1 83,677 % change yoy -39.9 -11.0 253.6 - -99.3 - 86.5 13.9 South Africa 7,864 17,403 11,531 1,300 2,120 541,397 74 5 81,689 % change yoy -0.6 33.8 386.3 -99.4 -46.5 3.4 35.0 -22.6 United States 359,349 6,239 249 488 13 356 21,112 3 87,806 % change yoy -4.7 32.9 542.0 24.3 -100.0 383.5 -9.7 -11.9 Iraq 5,606 144 496,963 - - - - 5 02,712 % change yoy -62.0 -32.7 86.1 - - - - 78.3 Cote d Ivoire 350,632 20,950 147,650 86,231 2,000 38,883 - 6 46,346 % change yoy -9.1 -31.0 616.7 25.6 -81.0 304.0 - 23.0 Hong Kong 169,024 38,688 2,685 1,213 1,017 - 8,421 2 21,047 % change yoy -14.0 -26.3 125.5 19.6 -5.1 - 18.2 -14.8 Senegal 256,200 - - - 18,455 72 - 2 74,727 % change yoy -4.4 -100.0 -100.0 -100.0 -86.6 -98.9 - -36.7 Singapore 100,791 31,590 4,111 4,939 5,869 481 8,210 1 55,991 % change yoy -15.3 -22.5 331.2 1694.4 -57.6 8.8 -34.3 -16.9 China 133,407 53,030 31,596 774 51 - 45,350 2 64,207 % change yoy 2.5 64.1 73377.9 209.6 -82.0 - -72.4 -19.4 Other 881,399 638,664 618,747 122,715 161,247 778,579 207,465 3 ,408,817 % change yoy -11.5 73.6 107.9 -69.3 -45.8 5.7 -5.7 2.8 Total 2 ,354,752 824,027 1,427,953 703,264 190,991 3,169,732 332,703 9,003,421 % change yoy -10.3 47.5 129.9 -15.3 -62.8 10.2 -32.9 5.7 Source: Department of Foreign Trade, Ministry of Commerce, and the Thai Chamber of Commerce 1.4 Stocks So far the government has released 3-4 million tons out of its total old-crop intervention stocks of 5-6 million tons, most of which is white rice accumulated prior MY2009/2010 under the Paddy Mortgage Scheme (TH9161). The intervention stocks released have been for export markets only, through a selective tender for large exporters. Presently, the exporters are holding government stocks of approximately 2.0 million tons as their exports are slowing. Most of their contracts, particularly for African countries, are small shipments. Also, Indonesia and the Philippines are cautious in placing large-volume orders due to strong price competition between Thai and Vietnamese rice. In addition, the government plans to hold minimal stock of only around 0.1 million tons as safety stock due to excess supplies of domestic production. 1.5 Policy The Price Insurance Scheme which replaced the long-standing Paddy Mortgage Scheme in MY2009/2010 has received good feedback from farmers, as a result the government has continued the program for the MY2010/11 crop. Moreover on March 8, 2011, the cabinet approved to raise insurance prices by 5-10 percent, together with an increase in eligible tonnage to 30 tons/farm household for the MY2010/11 off-season crop. The increase is necessary to guarantee farmers? profit margins at 30-40 percent since production cost is approximately 20 percent higher than the previous year?s level. Also, the government has additional measure on the Direct Purchase Program with a target of 2.0 million tons of paddy to buy paddy at benchmark prices, effective March 16, 2011. The objective of the program is to help stabilize domestic prices of paddy which are under downward pressure during the harvest. However, the program is unlikely to buy up to the target of 2.0 million tons as the benchmark prices are closed to market prices. In MY2009/10, the program bought only 150,000 tons. Table 1.3: Insurance Prices of MY2010/11 Second Crop Paddy MY2009/10 and MY2010/11 main crop MY2010/11 second crop Insurance Price Eligible Tonnage Insurance Price Eligible Tonnage (Baht/Ton) (Ton) (Baht/Ton) (Ton) White rice 10,000 25 11,000 30 Pathumthani Fragrant Rice 11,000 25 11,500 30 Glutinous Rice 9,500 16 10,000 30 The Price Insurance Scheme is expected to be continued over the long term as the government avoids burdening itself with intervention stocks which resulted in market distortions for two decades under the Paddy Mortgage Scheme. In MY2009/10 Price Insurance Scheme, the government paid around 48 billion baht ($1.5 billion) for compensation to farmers, as compared to the buy-in cost of the MY2008/09 Paddy Mortgage Scheme of 130 billion baht ($3.8 billion), which excludes post-harvest handling costs. 2. Corn 2.1 Production Corn T 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 hailand Market Year Begin: Jul Market Year Begin: Jul Market Year Begin: Jul 2009 2010 2011 USDA New USDA New O USDA Official New Post fficial Post Official Post Area Harvested 1,000 1,000 970 980 1,000 Beginning Stocks 1,051 1,051 551 551 501 Production 4,100 4,100 3,900 4,000 4,150 MY Imports 500 500 700 700 800 TY Imports 500 500 700 700 800 TY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 5,651 5,651 5,151 5,251 5,451 MY Exports 1,200 1,200 700 150 200 TY Exports 1,000 1,000 700 150 200 Feed and Residual 3,800 3,800 4,000 4,500 4,700 FSI Consumption 100 100 100 100 100 Total Consumption 3,900 3,900 4,100 4,600 4,800 Ending Stocks 551 551 351 501 451 Total Distribution 5,651 5,651 5,151 5,251 5,451 Yield 4. 4.1 4. 4.0816 4.15 MY2010/11 corn production is revised up slightly from the previous forecast to 4.0 million tons due to an increase in off-season corn production. However, total production remained lower than the previous year due to acreage reduction in the central plain (TH0128). MY2011/12 corn production is forecast to increase to 4.2 million tons in anticipation of an improvement in average yield due to favorable weather conditions, as compared to drought conditions in the previous year. The Thai Meteorological Department expects above-average precipitation during cultivation, particularly during May ? July which accounts for 70-80 percent of total crop cultivation, based on ENSO forecast for NINO 3.4 region (Figure 1.3). Despite attractive farm gate prices of corn, acreage expansion will likely limit because farmers have shifted to tapioca crop as tapioca prices are also attractive (Figure 2.1). 2.2 Consumption MY 2010/11 corn consumption is expected to increase significantly as the capacity utilization of feed mills increased to 74.0 percent in 2010, up 14.0 percent from the previous year. In the second half of the year, capacity utilization increased to a record 82.0 percent, far above the past five year average of Figure 2.2: Livestock Production ,000 Birds - Broilers 1,100,000 1,000,000 900,000 800,000 700,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 - Layers ,000 Birds 42,000 40,000 38,000 36,000 34,000 32,000 30,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 - Swine ,000 heads 14,000 13,000 62.0 percent, driven by strong domestic and export demand for livestock and aquaculture products. This resulted in a significant increase in feed consumption to 14.0 million tons, up 13.0 percent from the previous year, following the economic recovery in Thailand and export markets. Livestock and aquacultur1e p2ro,d0uc0tio0n increased significantly, up 6.0 percent for boiler production and up 15.0 percent for shrimp production. In addition, industrial capacity utilization of meat and meat processing facilities recovered to around 62.0 percent, slightly above the five-year average before the economic downturn in 2009. 11 ,000 Tight domestic production of feed grains resulted in some import of feed ingredients. Import content of feed products is around 20-30 percent of total production cost of feed. Most of the import is soybean meal, accounting for 60-70 percent of total feed ingredient 10,000 imports. In 2010, the value of primary feed ingredient imports increased to $1.4 billion, up 18.7 percent from the previous year, of which $1.1 billion was soybean meal imports. Market share of U.S. 20fe0ed 6ingredie2nts0 in0cre7ased fro2m 0ap0pro8ximately2 10 p0er9cent to 20 010 2011 percent over the past five years. The increase reflected emerging import demand for U.S. DDGS (distillers dried grains with soluble) as an alternative protein-source feed ingredient to substitute costly feed grains and ingredients like corn and soybean meal. Import of U.S. DDGS increased from around 70,000 tons ($15 million) in 2007 to 300,000 tons ($70 million) in 2010. In addition, import of U.S. Source soybean meal increased to 193,000 tons in 2010, up significantly : Office of Agricultural Eco omics from 36,500 tons in the previous year. In MY2011/12 feed consumption is forecast to continue to grow 2-3 percent in anticipation of continued increase in livestock production, particularly for poultry and swine production which utilizes approximately 87 percent of total feed consumption. 2.3 Trade MY2010/11 corn exports were revised down to 0.2 million tons, down significantly from 1.2 million tons in the previous year due to limited corn exportable supplies resulting from an increase in domestic consumption. The increase in domestic consumption of corn will result in strong import demand for corn. Corn imports are mainly from border trade with Cambodia and Laos which have become main suppliers since trade began in earnest in 2007 under the Joint Economic Cooperation Strategy Program, or Ayeyawady-Chao Phraya-Mekhong Economic Cooperation Strategy (ACMECS). In 2010, ACMECS was superseded by the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement, which allows corn from the region to enter duty and tariff rate free. MY2011/12 corn exports will likely remain limited at 0.2 ? 0.3 million tons in anticipation of continued strong domestic demand. Meanwhile, corn imports areis expected to continue to grow, particularly from Cambodia and Laos. Table 2.1: Thailand's Corn Exports Unit: Metric Ton 2008 2009 2010 %change Vietnam 80,501 424,449 276,419 -34.9 Philippines 3,386 62,034 85,444 37.7 Malaysia 417,802 346,372 101,722 -70.6 Indonesia 114,726 198,494 953 -99.5 Sri Lanka 804 798 950 19.0 Pakistan 1,567 984 815 -17.2 Myanmar 394 38 109 188.3 China 105 14,214 6,531 -54.1 Cambodia 1,288 1,265 660 -47.8 Laos 985 6,353 327 -94.8 Japan 3,747 13,891 2,163 -84.4 Other 47,551 12,090 2,512 -79.2 Total 672,856 1,080,981 478,604 -55.7 Source: Department of Customs Table 2.2: Thailand's Corn Imports Unit: Metric Ton 2007 2008 2009 2010 % change Laos 66,378 107,053 193,168 183,487 -5.0 Cambodia 80,430 310,967 95,733 224,742 134.8 India 563 587 2,603 1,474 -43.4 Indonesia 100 400 1,100 546 -50.4 Myanmar 10,688 9,261 4,907 900 -81.7 United States 554 520 361 607 68.1 South Africa 409 - - - - Other 1,109 1,497 950 405 -57.4 Total 160,232 430,285 298,822 412,161 37.9 Source: Department of Customs 2.4 Policy MY2010/11 Price Insurance Scheme for corn will likely continue to be implemented in MY2011/12. The government did not pay any compensation in MY2010/11 program as market prices of corn have been above insurance prices. As for imports, Thailand?s WTO agreement allows for a TRQ of 54,700 tons at a 20 percent in-quota tariff rate. Shipments are allowed only during the period of March 1 ? June 30, 2011 when domestic production is minimal. Meanwhile, out-of-quota imports are subject to a 73 percent tariff rate with a surcharge of 180 baht/ton ($6/MT). The Thais have never issued import permits on the basis that they?re self-sufficient in corn production. However, under AFTA, countries in the region will be able to export tariff and quota free into Thailand from March 1 ? June 30. 3. Wheat 3.1 Production Wheat 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Thailand Market Year Begin: Jul Market Year Begin: Jul Market Year Begin: Jul 2009 2010 2011 USDA New USDA New Official Post Official P USDA Official New Post ost Area Harvested 0 0 0 0 0 Beginning Stocks 399 399 695 527 537 Production 0 0 0 0 0 MY Imports 1,600 1,551 1,300 1,560 1,200 TY Imports 1,600 1,551 1,300 1,560 1,200 TY Imp. from U.S. 468 447 0 480 450 Total Supply 1,999 1,950 1,995 2,087 1,737 MY Exports 154 153 150 160 170 TY Exports 154 153 150 160 170 Feed and Residual 300 420 400 490 200 FSI Consumption 850 850 875 900 950 Total Consumption 1,150 1,270 1,275 1,390 1,150 Ending Stocks 695 527 570 537 417 Total Distribution 1,999 1,950 1,995 2,087 1,737 Yield 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. TS=TD 0 0 0 Comments Wheat production is insignificant in Thailand due to the unfavorable climatic conditions, lack of seed development, and unattractive returns, as compared to other field crops such as rice and corn in which the government provides the Price Insurance Scheme to support farmers. Cultivation is limited in the north, particularly in Maehongson province. Total production is estimated at approximately 500-600 tons in a cultivated area of 1,000 rai (160 hectares). 3.2 Consumption MY2009/10 and MY2010/11 wheat consumption increased significantly by 10-20 percent due to strong demand in the food and feed industries. In the first half of MY2010/11, flour mills increased their capacity utilization to 80-90 percent, as compared to an average of 60-65 percent, due to a strong economic recovery. The Thai economy grew 7.8 percent in 2010 from 2.3 percent in the previous year. The recovery will persist in 2011 with an economic growth forecast of 3.5-4.5 percent. In 2010, overall the industrial capacity utilization of the bakery industry increased 18 percent with approximately 20 percent increase in bread production, 35 percent in wafer production, and 12 percent in cake production. Instant noodle production also increased 5-10 percent from the previous year. Moreover, these food processing manufacturers build up wheat flour stock due to concerns over rising prices of wheat grain. In addition, leading manufacturer of bakery has invested in new production line in late 2010 which will result in a 25 percent increase in its production capacity in 2011, which is expected to meet anticipated growing bakery consumption over the next couple of years. Bakery and instant noodle production account for 60-70 percent of total wheat consumption. In addition, demand for feed wheat increased significantly to substitute corn and tapioca in feed rations as domestic prices of corn and tapioca increased 50-70 percent in 2010 and remained under upward pressure in the first half of 2011 due to tight supplies. MY2011/12 wheat consumption is forecast to slow down to 3-5 percent growth in anticipation of a reduction in wheat-based feed consumption as a surge in world wheat prices has made it less attractive for feed use. Also, wheat-based food consumption growth will likely be limited by an increase in domestic prices of wheat-based products. Presently, prices of locally wheat flour increased 25-30 percent from the previous year. Prices of wheat flour will likely continue to increase in MY2011/12 due to current high world wheat prices. 3.3 Trade MY2009/10 and MY2010/11 wheat imports are revised up to 1.5 - 1.6 million tons due to an increase in feed wheat demand that was used as substitute of corn and tapioca in feed rations. Most feed wheat is low quality wheat from Russia and Eastern European countries. Imports of feed wheat increased from a marginal amount of 1,000 ? 2,000 tons to 321,085 tons in MY2009/10 and will likely continue to Table 3.2: Thailand's Wheat Grain Imports unit: Metric Ton Table 3.3: Thailand's Wheat Flour Imports unit: Metric Ton 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 % Change increase to 381,000 tons in MY2010/11. In addition, imports of food-grade wheat increased to 1.0 milUlion tons in MY2009/10, up 13.9 percent from the previous year and should likely remain unchanged ited States 454,100 432,648 346,433 497,180 529,520 6 .5 2007 2008 2009 2010 % Change at approximately 1.0 million tons in MY2010/11 as flour mills are being cautious of the volatile marketplace. U.S. wheat will likely continue to dominate the market at around 50 percent of market share in MY2010/11 due to on quality and production concerns of Australian wheat following its Austr lia 426,780 97,722 276,339 406,191 438,703 8 .0 flooding. MYT2011u/12 wrhe key 3,337 15,928 28,717 35,367 23.2at import is forecast to decline in anticipation of a reduction in feed wheat demand. A Canad 125,154 325,301 70,670 163,109 136,802 -16.1 surge in world price of wheat since second half of 2010 has made it less attractive for feed use. Meanwhile, food-grade wheat is expected to continue the upward trend of 3-5 percent growth rate driRven by growing wheat-base food consumption. us ia - - - 30,250 117,757 2 89.3 China 93,263 38,117 21,764 18,432 -15.3 Ukraine - - - 7,132 62,837 7 81.0 Japan 16,877 10,189 14,567 17,174 17.9 Other 26 1,094 1,466 1,000 413,941 4 1,288.8 PThoilippines 13,057 15,92 11,002 14,228 29.3tal 1,006,060 856,765 694,909 1,104,863 1,699,560 5 3.8 Source: Department of Customs Singapore 24,308 16,485 10,691 18,991 77.6 Other 3,587 9,935 9,170 73,293 699.3 Total 179,026 143,786 116,913 177,488 51.8 Source: Department of Customs 3.4 Policy The tariff rate on imported wheat has been zero since September 2007. Meanwhile, the tariff on wheat flour is 5 percent (0.5 baht/kg), except within AFTA which is duty free since January 2010. Local flour millers are not concerned with the current tariff structure as they are able to compete with imported flour. The concern is on the Government?s price control policy which includes wheat flour in the list of monitored products (TH8034). Presently, the government has asked for cooperation of manufacturers to cooperate in maintaining the price of wheat flour until the end of March 2011 despite higher imported prices of wheat grain. Flour mills will likely lower their production capacity if the government does not adjust prices to reflect higher production costs. 4. Bean 4.1 Production 2009 2010 2011 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Jan Market Year Begin: Jan Market Year Begin: Jan Bean Thailand/Unit: 1,000 HA; 1,000 2009 2010 2011 MT USDA Official ficial USDA D N USDA Of ew ata P Data Jan Official Jan ost Data Data Data Data Area Harvested 0 260 265 270 270 272 Beginning Stocks 0 4 5 3 3 3 Production 0 280 300 310 306 310 MY Imports 0 8 16 10 25 30 TY Imports 0 8 16 10 25 30 TY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 0 292 321 323 334 343 MY Exports 0 30 54 55 25 20 TY Exports 0 30 54 55 25 20 Feed and Residual 0 5 5 5 5 5 FSI Consumption 0 255 259 260 301 315 Total Consumption 0 260 264 265 306 320 Ending Stocks 0 2 3 3 3 3 Total Distribution 0 292 321 323 334 343 Yield 0. 1.0769 1.1321 1.1481 1.1333 1.1397 MY2010/11 mung bean production is revised downward slightly due to damage from flooding. However, production remained higher than the previous year as the damage is being offset by acreage expansion. Farmers shifted from tapioca to mung bean as their tapioca was adversely affected by drought and the Table 4.1: Thailand's Mung Beans Exports Unit: Metric Ton 2008 2009 2010 % Change India 9,041 15,019 1,353 -91.0 United States 5,939 4,465 4,876 9.2 outbreak of mealy bug. MY2011/12 mung bean production is forecast to continue to increase as an altPernativek crop due to attractive returns. Current farm-gate prices of mung bean increased to 32 ? 33 istan 8,38 6,693 476 -92.9 baht/kg, up 5-8 percent from the previous year. 4.C2 Conasumptiobn odia 590 9,117 3,460 -62.0 MCY 2011/12 mung bean consumption is forecast to continue the upward trend driven by strong anada 3,384 3,099 2,990 -3.5 domestic and export demand for vermicelli which accounts for half of total mung bean use. The food industry also expanded their production capacity to meet growing demand of diversified products of veSrmicrelli, bLean falounr, bekan saprouts and cake, and various confec tio n ar y ite m s . M e1anw,h9ile, 8the 8use of 3,248 973 -70.0 mung beans in the feed industry remains marginal as prices are much higher than other grains. Malaysia 1,640 1,929 1,166 -39.5 4.3 Trade MUY 201n0/11i mtueng bdean eKxportsi dneclinged sdignioficanmtly by half du e to li m it ed e x po r1tabl,e 1supp6lies7 1,035 937 -9.5 resulting from growing domestic demand from the food processing industry. The increase in domestic consumption also resulted in a surge in mung bean imports which increased significantly by 51.4 peIrcent. d Thaon sia 536 1,239 1,605 29.5iland relies heavily on imports of mung bean from Myanmar, accounting for around 70 percent of total imports. Hong Kong 1,311 1,095 1,071 -2.1 Singapore 1,177 1,014 920 -9.2 Philippines 1,541 1,053 511 -51.5 Other 4,994 4,587 4,395 -4.2 Total 41,689 53,592 24,733 -53.8 Source: Department of Custom Table 4.2: Thailand's Bean Imports unit: Metric Ton 2008 2009 2010 % change Myanmar 7,852 13,782 17,635 28.0 Australia - 1,275 4,243 232.8 Indonesia - 324 1,141 252.4 Malaysia 115 247 677 173.7 Cambodia - - 780 780 Vietnam - 281 124 -55.8 Other 80 344 0 -99.9 Total 8,046 16,253 24,600 51.4 Source: Department of Custom 4.4 Policy Mung beans are considered to be a minor crop. The government does not offer price insurance scheme to mung bean farmers. The crop is normally encouraged by the government as a second crop to replace off-season paddy crop. As for imports, the tariff rate on imported mung bean is 5 percent, except within AFTA which is duty free. End of Report
Posted: 06 April 2011, last updated 6 April 2011

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