Post forecasts 17.5 MMT of wheat, 7 MMT of barley, 4.2 MMT of corn and 750,000 MT of paddy rice production in Turkey in MY 2012.
THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY
USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT
Required Report - public distribution
Grain and Feed Annual
Turkey Grain and Feed Annual 2012
Samet Serttas, Agricultural Specialist
Post forecasts 17.5 MMT of wheat, 7 MMT of barley, 4.2 MMT of corn and 750,000 MT of paddy
rice production in Turkey in MY 2012. New investments in the livestock industry increased
demand for high protein grains. Turkey became the largest wheat flour exporter in the world.
Post forecasted 17.5 MMT of wheat production and a planting area of 7.82 Million ha. The slight area increase
was due to a switch from cotton planting to wheat. Due to price shocks in the cotton sector, farmers preferred to
grow either wheat or corn in most regions in MY 2012. More over sunflower area increase is also very important
facts for Konya region in MY 2012.
Low yields, low quality and low prices led to a 10% decrease in the durum wheat area in Konya region. The corn
area in some regions increased at the expense of wheat area.
Turkey had one of the coldest winters in recent history. These cold weather conditions and heavy snowfall had
negative effect on wheat in Afyon. Corum, Kirikkale, Polatli some part of Konya and the Kirklareli region.
Winter kill was very effective in Central Anatolia region.
The barley area increased in Konya, Corum and the Kirsehir region. A high barley price led wheat farmers to
grow barley instead of wheat. The other important area for barley is the GAP region. Production in this area
remained the same. Post forecasts barley area at 3.3 million ha and production at 7 MMT.
In MY 2011, cotton farmers couldn’t find enough seeds to plant and even went to cotton ginning premises to
collect seeds. Similarly, in MY 2012 farmers demand for corn seed was higher than expected, and global and
local seed companies are almost out of corn seed stocks. The corn area could reach 520,000 ha, depending on
second season corn area, but corn area is conservatively forecasted at 505,000 MT and production at 4.2 MMT in
MY 2012. Some traders even forecasted corn around at 5.5 MMT. Post would like to emphasize that there will be
record corn production in 2012.
Rice production was at a record level in MY 2011 and estimated at 750,000 MT. Rice area increased in the
Gonen, Manyas and Thrace regions. Osmancik variety now dominates the whole area (87% of total seed). For
MY 2012, post forecasts paddy rice production at 770,000 MT.
Post forecasts 17.5 MMT of wheat production and 7.82 Million ha. There is a slight planting area increase
because of gains from cotton area. In MY 2011, cotton area increased at the expense of the wheat area but due to
subsequent price shocks in the cotton sector, many farmers decided to grow either wheat or corn in MY 2012.
In the Cukurova region (Adana, Mersin, Osmaniye) the wheat area increased 3.8% compared to MY 2011 but
decreased 13% in MY 2012 compared to MY 2010. Most of the removed area was allocated for corn instead, and
some for sunflower and cotton. In this region in particular, farmers had a difficult time deciding between corn
and cotton production. Corn is profitable in terms of high yields, low cost, ready buyers and relatively high
prices. Cotton is profitable due to record high prices and a government subsidy (420 TL/MT).
In MY 2011, there was a rush to purchase cotton seed due to incredibly high cotton prices. In MY 2012, a similar
rush occurred for purchasing corn seed. The government was late announcing 2012 commodity premium.
Farmers have already decided on either planting corn, cotton, oilseed plants or forage crops. The government
premium has been a very important factor in farmers’ planting decisions. In the past two years, the government
made a point of announcing premiums in time to influence planting decisions but in MY 2012, farmers had
to decide on crops according to market conditions or anticipated premiums because premiums were announced
Wheat plant height was 20 cm in March 21, 2012 and development was good. In some areas there were yellow
colors observed in the wheat field. If there is enough April rain yields will be around 550-600 kg/da. In MY 2011,
a 700 kg/da wheat yield was observed in the Karatas region. In MY 2012, yields will not be at record levels but
will be higher than the long term average yield.
Corn planting started on March 25, 2012 which is 15 days late for first season corn planting. There are five corn
starch companies and three of them are located in Adana. They buy GMO free corn domestically. The other
major user of corn is the feed sector. Farmers are following the decisions of the Biosafety Boards on biotech corn
approvals very closely and are concerned that the events will soon be rejected on the basis of some very negative
risk assessment committee reports. A rejection will deny the feed industry the ability to resume corn imports.
The poultry industry benefitted from high feed type wheat yields in MY 2011 as well as a flexible inward process
regime for wheat which ensured affordable wheat imports. As a result the poultry industry's dependence on corn
production decreased temporarily, but in May and June 2012 when wheat is first harvested, poultry producers will
have to compete with other users and prices may increase.
In the relatively high areas of Cukurova, farmers also planted sunflower, taking additional acreage from wheat.
The sunflower area is increasing every year in the region because of its low production cost, high yield and high
government premium (230 TL/MT). Ten years ago the sunflower area in the region was almost zero and today it
is 5,000 ha.
Corn oil consumption dropped suddenly and dramatically after biotech corn discussion started and demand to
sunflower seed increased. There are some companies who takes the initiative to increase sunflower area in the
East part of Turkey which will negatively affect low quality wheat area in the future in the region.
Another competitive product in Cukurova is soybeans, however despite a high government premium (500 TL/ha)
for soybeans, acreage increased only a little and will not have a significant impact on wheat or corn area. There
are very little or no initiatives by the poultry industry to increase soybean area in the region. Even if farmers
wanted to plant soybeans, there is not enough soybean seed availability, especially as a result of increasingly
strict import regulations and implementations after biosafety law.
There are some farmers who began to plant canola in the Cukurova region. Yield and premium supports were
very favorable towards Canola production but farmers need some time to adjust. Harvesting equipments and
canola farming knowledge are two main factors that will determine the future area of canola in the region.
Orchard development, greenhouse plants, sesame seeds, onions and watermelons increase their share of farm area
every year in the region.
There is one big irrigation project in the region called Yedigoze dam which will irrigate 75,000 ha of land in the
Imamoglu Valley. Farmers in the region will switch from wheat to first season corn and cotton. The project will
be finished in 2014.
The government sets targets for every sector up to 2023. In terms of agriculture, Adana agriculture will be much
different in 2023 than today. Orchard areas will increase, both for citrus and stone fruit. Corn and Cotton will be
the dominant crops for the first season crop. Sunflower and Canola area will increase. High value crops such as
greenhouse crops and vegetables will increase.
Future of wheat in the region is a big question mark. Since most milers enjoy to buy first domestic wheat harvest
in the region and ready to pay premium, wheat area will always keep some area, but corn, sunflower, cotton and
orchard development will always challenge wheat area.
Post do not expect as high yield as MY 2011 but yield in the region will be more than long term average.
The Hatay region was flooded in January and February by extensive rain and opening of a dam door. Almost
15,000 ha of wheat area were badly affected by these floods. Wheat most probably will be replaced by cotton and
corn in April 2012. The picture below shows a wheat area in the Hatay region in February 2, 2012. Wheat in the
picture was planted after the cotton harvest and most probably they eventually needed to replace wheat with
cotton or corn. There will be 100,000-150,000 MT less wheat production in this area compared to MY 2011.
Figure 1: Wheat farm picture from Hatay region
South East Anatolia
There was 10% decrease in wheat planting area in South East Anatolia compared to MY 2011. Heavy rainfall in
autumn prevented farmers from harvested second season corn in some regions and some farmers allocated land to
cotton planting. Due to availability of direct sunlight in the region, Sanliurfa is known for its high quality durum
wheat. Increased pasta exports attracted durum wheat farmers again this year. High barley prices were also led
to farmers to increasing the overall barley area. The major problem experienced in the region was late cold
weather in March, 2012. Second season corn producers planted wheat in January 2012 and late March cold
weather could potentially decrease the effectiveness of fertilizer and may damage some crops.
Very favorable weather conditions allowed South East Anatolia led to improved wheat production in MY 2012,
contrary to conditions in other parts of the country. Most of the production increase will go to the pasta and
bulgur industry since the region produces the highest quality durum wheat. Considering the overall conditions of
wheat in the rest of the country, high quality wheat in the region will attract millers, especially from the
Winter wheat planting is completed and rainfall and snow coverage was very favorable for plant development.
Wheat plant height was 4-5 cm on March 30, 2012. Durum wheat area decreased 10% in favor of barley area.
The MY 2011 durum wheat crop in Turkey had protein content problems and therefore farmers couldn’t benefit
from high world durum prices. Especially in dry areas, barley planting increased around 10-15% compared to
MY 2011. Milling wheat was very popular among farmers during MY 2012 planting. The new TMO protein-
based procurement policy led farmers to use certified seed, especially in the Konya region. Wheat area decreased
1% compared to MY 2011 due to an increase in corn, sunflower and forage crops. Winter kill was very common
problem in Kulu, Cihanbeyli region.
The livestock industry grew significantly in the Konya and Aksaray regions. Turkey imported 85,000 head of
breeding dairy cattle, mainly from U.S., since 2009. Most of the cattle are now located in the West, Central
Anatolia and Thrace part of Turkey. These new large farms in the region initiated contracts for forage crops,
which resulted in a slight decrease in wheat area.
Ministry of livestock, food and agriculture try to encourage sheep and goat farming in the region due to
unavailability of protein source to feed cattle population. Sheep and goat population increased in the region and
get back to same number of population before red meat price crisis started in 2009. Ministry believes that Turkish
red meat production should come from sheep and goat. They are planning to rent meadows and pasture to small
ruminants producers in the future to encourage them to produce more small ruminants.
At the moment there is strong dairy and beef industry settled in Konya, Aksayar and Afyon region and they will
need high quality protein sources like Corn, Soybean and forage crops.
The corn area in Eregli regions increased at the expense of some wheat area. Bezostoja is still the leading seed
variety in the region. Fertilizer use increased in the region by some farmers due to their increased knowledge
about the relationship between fertilizer use and protein content in wheat. Large farmers apply fertilizer three
times on wheat fields but most other farmers only apply fertilizer once due to high fertilizer costs. The
government provides support in the amount of 47.5 TL/ha for fertilizer purchase. Harsh winter conditions helped
Bezostoja variety farmers and negatively affected newly popular Esperia variety farmers.
There are two types of wheat area in the region. One is irrigated land, which is irrigated by wells. Millers usually
targets to buy irrigated wheat. In MY 2012, irrigated area do not have any germination or cold weather problem
but dry land area experienced germination problem. There will be yield loss in the region in MY 2012.
Table1: Fertilizer price
Turkey: Fertilizer prices
Type of December December February March 30, January, February
fertilizer 10, 2008 10, 2009 10, 2010 2011 2012 2012
(TL/MT) (TL/MT) (TL/MT) (TL/MT) (TL/MT) (TL/MT)
DAP 760 670 920 1,350 1,450 1,420
fertilizers/ 1,670 585 680 960 1,030 1,080
Farmers in the Polatli region saw high yields and medium level quality in MY 2012. High quality wheat received
a premium of 395 USD/MT in March 2012, which encouraged farmers to spread more fertilizer, starting in April
2012. The Esperia seed use, which usually leads to high yields and high quality, increased in the region.
Higher diesel prices also reduced fertilizer and machinery use in wheat farming. The diesel price is currently at a
record high of 4 TL/liter (2.25 USD/liter). There is a government support payment of 37.5 TL/ha for diesel
purchase for farmers.
Turkey had one of the coldest winters in recent history. Although the cold temperatures and heavy snowfall
mostly left wheat unharmed, some damage was observed in Afyon and the Kirklareli region. There was also some
damage observed in the Polatli, Golbasi, Haymana, Kirikkale region. Wheat germination was not regular or
uniform. Farmers started to spread fertilizer or add irrigation to try to save the wheat. However, Post believes that
these measures will not help wheat in Polatli. This cold weather damage is expected to affect 25% of the wheat
area in the region. Root problems were also observed.
Farmers usually use 200 kg of seed/ha but most farmers would prefer to use more seed per hectare in order to get
a higher yield. To meet this demand, Turkey would need to produce an estimated 650,000 MMT of certified
seed/year. Farmers mostly complain about high input costs, including the price for certified seed, which is 630
USD/MT. Farmers in general use around 200 kg/ha fertilizer for wheat farming.
Table 2 : Government support to wheat farmers
Turkey: Government support to wheat producers
Ye Certified seed Soil analysis Premium payment Diesel Fertilizer ar
(TL/ha) (TL/ha) (TL/MT) (TL/ha) (TL/ha)
2005 50 - - 24 16
2006 50 10 30 - -
2007 50 10 35 28.8 21.3
2008 45 10 40 28.8 21.3
2009 50 22.5 45 29.3 38.3
2010 50 25 50 32.5 42.5
2011 60 25 50 37.5 47.5
2012 60 25 50 40 50
Table 3: Wheat production estimate and forecast
Turkey: Wheat production and yield
Regions MY MY Long Harve MY 2010 MY 2011 MY 2012
2010 2011 term st
Avg.yi Avg.yi Avg.yi Time Harvest Producti Harvest Producti Harvest Producti
eld eld eld ed Area on (MT) ed Area on (MT) ed Area on (MT)
(MT/H (MT/H (MT/H
A) A) A)
(ha) (ha) (ha)
Cukuro 3.5- 4.7 4.5- May 300,00 1,300,00 250,00 1,175,00 260,00 1,250,00
va 4.5 5.5 10- 0 0 0 0 0 0
Hatay 3 4.7 5-5.5 May 100,00 300,000 85,000 399,500 85,000 260,000
region 25- 0
Southe 2 2.9 3-3.5 May 1,000,0 2,000,00 800,00 2,320,00 900,00 2,300,00
ast 15- 00 0 0 0 0 0
Central 2 2.38 1.5-2 June 3,000,0 6,000,00 3,000,0 7,140,00 2,990,0 6,300,00
Anatoli 25- 00 0 00 0 00 0
Polatli 2.8-3 3.4 3.3 June 120,00 350,000 130,00 442,000 130,00 350,000
15- 0 0 0
Aegean 2-2.5 3 3 May 650,00 1,500,00 550,00 1,650,00 550,00 1,600,00
region 25- 0 0 0 0 0 0
Aydin 4.5 4 4 May 8,000 50,000 6,000 24,000 6,000 40,000
Thrace 3.5 4.1 4.1 June 600,00 2,500,00 600,00 2,460,00 600,00 2,400,00
15- 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other 1.3 1.4 1.5 June 2,222,2 3,000,00 2,300,0 3,220,00 2,300,0 3,000,00
regions 15- 22 0 00 0 00 0
Total 2.12 2.3 2.3 My 8,000,2 17,000,0 7,721,0 18,830,5 7,821,0 17,500,0
15- 22 00 00 00 00 00
The barley area increased in the Konya, Corum and Kirsehir regions. A high barley price led to wheat farmers
planting barley instead of wheat. In another important area for barley, the GAP region, the area remained the
same. Post forecasts barley area at 3.3 million ha and production at 7 MMT in MY 2012.
High soybean and cotton premiums in MY 2012 will not be enough to attract farmers to grow more of these
crops. Farmers are very susceptible to price fluctuation due to a lack of established market system and lack of the
use of a futures exchange or hedging system. Corn farmers were happy with prices in MY 2011 but corn traders
In a normal season, first crop planting in the Cukurova region begins in the end of February and ends in April but
in MY 2011 due heavy rainfall, planting was one and half months late. First season corn planting started on
March 20, 2012. First crop corn planting increased in the Cukurova, Marmara and Aegean regions. The Marmara
region mostly focused on silage corn. Konya, a relatively new corn producer, increased its corn area compared to
In MY 2011, cotton farmers couldn’t find enough seed to plant and even went to cotton ginning premises to try to
collect some seed. In MY 2012, farmers demand for corn seed was higher than expected and global and local
seed companies are almost out of corn seed stocks. Corn area could reach 520,000 ha depending on second
season corn area but Post conservatively forecasts it at 505,000 MT and production at 4.2 MMT in MY 2012.
A major increase in corn planting area was observed in several areas. In Cukurova it was due to farmers’ heavy
investments loss on cotton planting in MY 2011, In the Aegean region, it was due to a dramatic increase in the
number of livestock farms. In the Marmara region, it was due to increased demand from the broiler industry.
Second season corn area most probably will increase in the GAP region. The only factor that could limit the
second season corn area is a possible corn price decrease in July 2012.
Second season corn planting will decreased in Cukurova not only in MY 2012 but also in the following years.
Disease problems and low yields are causing farmers to grow alternative crops. Second corn will be
concentrated in the GAP region in MY 2012 and in the future as well. Dry weather conditions and availability of
irrigation should help GAP farmers to get 10-12 MT/ha yields in the region.
Due to heavy support for sunflower seed, high demand from sunflower oil companies and contracting directly
with farmers, sunflower area is increasing in the Cukurova and surprisingly the Konya region as well. Sugar beet
production is not as profitable as it was in the past for the Konya region, so some farmers will switch from sugar
beet to either sunflower or corn production in the future. Post will follow this trend closely. The competition
between sunflower and corn in the Konya region will wind up in the favor of sunflower production in MY 2012
but is also increasing.
The Paddy Rice Farming Act was published in 1936 to control paddy rice farming. According to this act, farmers
should have permission to grow paddy rice. Each county should establish a paddy rice commission and farmers
must apply to the commission to get permission to grow paddy rice. There is a 25 TL/ha permission fee that
farmers should pay. The main reason for this act was to control malaria and to distribute water fairly among
paddy rice farmers. Illegal paddy rice farming carries a penalty of 610 TL/ha. This also restricts paddy rice area
Paddy rice is mainly grown in the Thrace region with modern agricultural techniques and equipment. The major
rice growing provinces are Edirne, Balıkesir, Çanakkale, Bursa, Samsun, Çorum, Sinop, and Kastamonu. There
is around 60 paddy rice milling factories with a very low capacity use. Like in other milling industries, there is
excess capacity in paddy rice milling in Turkey. Turkey would like to use this excess capacity for export
The most productive region is Thrace, which contains 10-15% of Turkey’s total rice plantation area. Ipsala alone
produces 20,000 ha of paddy rice. The average yield in Thrace is 8 MT/ha.
Rice planting will start in the middle of May 2012 and finish by the end of the same month. MY 2012 plantation
area increased 2% due to favorable weather conditions and increased water levels in several dams. Rice yields
depend on rainfall at the end of August and early September. The harvest normally begins in September and
ends in October.
Rice production was at record levels in MY 2011, estimated at 750,000 MT. There were area increases in the
Gonen, Manyas and Thrace regions. The Osmancik variety now dominates the whole area. For MY 2012, post
forecasts paddy rice production at 770,000 MT.
New irrigation projects will dramatically increase paddy rice area in 2013 and 2014. Large dam and irrigation
projects in South Marmara, the Samsun region and the Thrace region are among these projects. The government
already completed dam and irrigation projects in South Marmara which opened 10,000 ha of new paddy area in
2010. New projects will open an additional 20,000 ha of new paddy area in the Thrace and South Marmara
regions and 20,000 ha in the Samsun region.
Post estimated MY 2011 lentil production at 400,000 MT and 2012 lentil production at 450,000 MT.
The pulse planting area normally changes depending on the availability of seeds, prices and premiums of the
previous year’s harvest, weather conditions, fertilizer prices, plant diseases, and the presence of weeds like
broomrape (Orobanche spp) in the field. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs introduced a 90 TL/MT
pulse premium in 2008 and increased it to 100 TL/MT in 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012. This high pulse premium
led to increased lentil area in MY 2012.
The GAP region, which is in South East Anatolia, traditionally grows pulses. The GAP development project,
including new dams and irrigation canals, has also led to increased lentil yields and plantation area. In MY 2011
lentil area increased but due to heavy rainfall, production actually decreased. The harvest was late by 15 days.
Turkey produces 101 million 250-gram loaves of bread every day. The Istanbul Municipality bread factory (IHA)
produces 1.7 million loaves every day. IHA has three bread production factories in Istanbul. In terms of daily
production they are the biggest bread producer in Europe. The price of bread at IHA (0.50 TL/300 grams) is
lower than the market price (0.85 TL/300 grams). IHA sells 70% of their production at their small bakery shops
and 30% at private markets.
The Ankara Municipality bread factory is the second largest Municipal bread factory with a production of 1
million 300-gram loaves daily. The Bursa municipality bread factory produces 400,000 loaves daily. According
to estimates, municipalities produce around 10 million loaves every day in Turkey. They have a 10% market
share. The price of municipality bread is usually 40% cheaper than bread produced in the private sector. The
marketing strategy of municipality bread companies is to franchise into very small bakery shops which are
There are around 5,000 small unregistered bakeries in Istanbul, creating concerns about food safety. The
Government defines its role in the bread market as leading to higher quality, more hygienic, and more varied
types of bread by the private sector. In the reality the municipality bread companies distort the bread market and
provide subsidized bread to consumers. IHA sells 35 different bread varieties but private small bakeries only
usually produce 3-4 different varieties. The most common variety is white bread. The Government is trying to
encourage bread producers to use bran, rye, and oat to produce multi-grain bread to improve public health.
The Turkish Grain Board (TMO) gets involved in the grain market when there is a surplus in the market and
announces their procurement price usually when prices start to decline to unaccepted levels for farmers,
particularly in May when the harvest starts in the southern part of Turkey. In MY 2011, TMO announced
procurement prices on May 30, 2011 which was a little bit later than their historical trends. The main reason was
the high market price, especially in the Cukurova region. Traders and millers started to buy wheat at around 620
to 700 TL/MT when the first wheat was harvested and the price gradually decreased to 600 TL/MT when it was
clear that there would be surplus wheat in the Central Anatolia region.
Moreover, poultry producer and feed millers were very active buyers in the wheat market in Cukurova and the
South East Anatolian region due to a ban on corn imports under the Biosafety Law. It is projected that poultry
producers will be active again in the Cukurova wheat market, which will lead to high wheat prices in the first
couple weeks of the harvest.
For the first time this year TMO started to purchase wheat according to the protein content (quality). The table
below shows prices announced for wheat with a protein content of 11.5-12%. The July-August purchase price for
12-12.5% protein was 611 TL, for 12.5-13% protein was 617 TL/MT and for wheat with a protein content of 13%
and above was about 623 TL/MT.
Table 4: TMO Grain intervention price
TURKEY: TMO GRAIN INTERVENTION PRICE
MY 2010 TMO INTERVENTION PRICE (TL/MT) SALE PRICE (TL/MT)
TYPES OF WHEAT JUNE-JULY-
SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER
DURUM DURUM WHEAT FOR 575 585 595 605 675 685
MY 2010 LOW QUALITY
DURUM WHEAT FOR 470 480 490 500 550 560
MY 2011 TMO INTERVENTION PRICE (TL/MT) SALE PRICE (TL/MT)
TYPES OF WHEAT JULY- MBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER
DURUM DURUM WHEAT FOR 640 645 650 655 760 765
MY 2011 LOW QUALITY
DURUM WHEAT FOR 520 525 530 535 615 620
TMO procured wheat mainly from South East Anatolia, Central Anatolia and the Thrace region. Due to a high
price in the Cukurova region they didn’t buy any wheat from there. But in some areas, like Diyarbakir and some
parts of Konya, there were quality problems in MY 2011 so farmers were forced to sell wheat to TMO due to
lack of alternatives. Before the major switch by TMO to a wheat procurement system based on protein content,
farmers who previously wouldn’t use TMO warehouses for storage due to mixing of low and high quality wheat
began to use TMO storage with more confidence. In MY 2011, Farmers put 951,821 MT of wheat into TMO
Table 5: TMO procurements
YEAR Durum Wheat Milling Wheat Barley Rye Oat Corn TOTAL
MY 2009 735,000 3,035,000 1,300,000 48,500 4,150 185,000 5,307,650
MY 2010 1,984,203
338,931 639,003 922,778 0 0 83,491
MY 2011 106,014 710,168 168,980 0 0 47,632
The wheat price was very high at the beginning of the MY 2011 season but then returned to more stable levels.
In early April, high quality milling wheat (13% protein and above) was sold for the relatively high price of 390
USD/MT, and average milling quality wheat (12% protein) was sold for 340 USD. Surprisingly, feed quality
wheat also kept its strong position at 320 USD/MT due to continuous demand from the broiler industry.
Table 6: Durum wheat price
TURKEY: Anatolian durum wheat price at commodity exchange (USD/MT)
MY JUN JUL AU SE OC NO DE JA FE MA AP MA
YEAR E Y G P T V C N B R R Y
200 216 22 235 23 240 258 259 26 27 277 28 291
6 0 8 1 2 3
2007 336 34 341 37 441 488 503 51 55 545 56 616
9 7 6 4 4
2008 632 66 612 58 466 382 407 36 35 341 33 324
0 0 7 5 9
2009 328 28 301 29 290 293 275 28 34 312 31 305
8 9 1 8 1
2010 330 37 356 35 370 376 400 391 398 450 453 406
2011 387 375 352 347 330 363 336 375 375 359
Table 7: Milling wheat price
TURKEY: Milling wheat price at commodity exchange (USD/MT)
MY JUNE JULY AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY
2006 253 245 257 272 275 286 293 304 324 331 330 309
2007 338 360 350 387 415 427 433 446 478 492 490 485
2008 466 479 480 450 375 343 352 335 324 315 314 321
2009 330 339 326 317 341 323 330 369 364 352 349 334
2010 340 339 378 368 383 400 460 400 390 445 460 418
2011 418 369 346 342 342 340 341 364 364 360
Traders can follow the Turkish wheat price using the websites provided below. The Polatli and Konya
Commodity exchanges are the ones where mostly high- and medium-quality wheat is traded. The Adana
Commodity Exchange usually is not very active in wheat trading due to millers and traders heavy involvement at
the farm level in Cukurova. The reason they are so active here is that it is the first wheat harvested in Turkey and
farmers do can easily find buyers in their villages.
There are two major sectors using barley in Turkey. One is the malting and beer industry and the other is the feed
sector. The malting and beer industry uses 230,000 MT of barley. The beer industry uses 72% of industrial
barley. There are 7 beer manufacturers but two of them have 99% of the market share. Turkish beer production
and export slightly increased in 2010.
Table 8: Beer sector statistics
Turkey: Beer sector
Parameters 2009 2010
Production 10,219,290 hl 10,278,536 hl
Export 988,133 hl 1,077,333 hl
Import 3,925 hl 13,800 hl
Domestic consumption 9,235,081 hl 9,215,003 hl
Value of production 681 million € 752 million €
Number of beer manufacturers 7 7
Number of production facilities 11 11
The feed industry uses barley mainly for ruminant feed. Overall, the feed industry is growing very fast. There
are a lot of new investments in Turkey on both dairy and recently also on fattening cattle farms. Extensive
development in the broiler and egg industry also continues. Major increases in this sector were observed in broiler
feed and ruminant feed production. This increase was also reflected in barley demand.
Table 9: Feed production
Turkey: Feed production (MT)
Types of feed 2010 2011
Broiler feed 3,593,576 4,031,302
Layer feed 820,899 953,819
Other poultry feed 547,578 596,270
Total poultry feed 4,962,054 5,581,390
Feeder cattle feed 2,310,524 2,837,345
Milking cow feed 3,537,312 3,898,019
Total ruminant feed 5,847,836 6,735,364
Fish feed 184,810 239,273
Other feed 52,614 62,425
Total feed production 11,501,123 13,162,340
Source: Feed millers association (YEMBIR)
The barley price was very strong because of this high demand from the livestock and broiler sectors. The broiler
industry preferred to use feed quality wheat in MY 2011 but in the GAP region broiler companies procured a high
amount of barley for their feeding rations. The strong price is not reflected in the below table because of a
relatively strong USD against the TL starting from July 2011. The feed barley price normally should be around
450-500 TL/MT but increased to up to 580 TL/MT in MY 2011 and stayed around 575 TL/MT in April 2012.
Table 10: Barley price
YEAR JUNE JULY AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY
2007 287 310 302 342 381 407 410 397 400 369 375 428
2008 417 427 434 396 327 302 310 301 288 270 268 270
2009 217 220 225 234 245 230 225 236 236 231 236 229
2010 232 266 256 276 286 288 333 316 334 323 332 311
2011 297 285 289 300 296 295 293 275 292 295 330
The feed industry imported 4.66 MMT of feed raw material, including feed additives. Most imported raw
materials are protein based products such as soybean (1.29 MMT), soybean meal (541,000 MT), sunflower meal
(568,000 MT) and wheat bran (302,000 MT).
The DDGS price was very stable until one company imported 20,000 MT of DDGS and others began importing
as well. The wheat bran price is very high due to the unavailability of corn and DDGS at the market, which
helped wheat millers to increase their profits.
Feed industry growth rate is in parallel with the developments in broiler, egg and livestock industry. Feed
industry as in line with governments 2023 target set targets for 2023. According to their strategy feed production
is forecasted at 28 MMT.
Feed industry growth rate will continue to have steady increase on the following years. New investments in the
dairy industry will be now supported by modern fattening cattle farming. Moreover poultry industry export
potential is not realized yet; there are still big opportunities like Saudi Arabia and EU. There is also tremendous
increase on the growth of egg industry which at the moment enjoys export mainly to Iraq and planning to export
liquid egg to EU in the recent future. There will be increased demand to all protein sources mainly corn and
soybean. Corn and soybean production deficit will be completed by imports mainly from U.S and Latin America.
Table 11: Feed industry 2023 projection
Turkey: Feed use and import estimate and forecast
PRODUCTS USE IMPORT
2011 2023 2011 2023
CORN 2,250 3,800 372 1,500
WHEAT 1,650 2,800 NA 0
SOYBEAN 850 1,500 1,298 1,500
SOYBEAN MEAL 850 1,500 514 1,500
SOYBEAN OIL 170 290 NA NA
BARLEY 2,500 4,250 1,500
SUNLOWER SEED MEAL 36 750 1,300 568 1,000
SUNFLOWER SEED MEAL 28 1,170 2,000 NA NA
Source: Feed millers association (YEMBIR
Government support to the livestock industry was not only limited to premium support but they also introduced
long term installment, zero interest credit which was distributed to 111,000 farmers at 6 billion TL in August,
2010-April 2011. This credit support will continue in 2012 and this will help the feed industry to meet its targets
in the future.
In addition, the United States and Turkey reached an agreement on March 2012 on a fattening cattle health
protocol which will enable Turkey to import high quality U.S. fattening cattle. The Government wants industry to
produce meat from either from sheep and goat or beef from beef variety cattle. Currently the main cattle variety
used for beef is Holstein.
Figure 2: Feed raw material price
The price for broiler feed, which is mostly based on high protein, remained high in 2011. The compound feed
price trend usually follows global commodity prices, since 30% of the feed raw material is imported. The high
barley feed price also kept prices high, particularly feed for dairy and fattening cattle.
Figure 3: Compound feed price
There are two main users of corn in Turkey, the feed industry and the corn starch industry. The corn starch
industry is controlled by the government through quota allocations. There are five starch companies, three of
them are in Adana and two of them are in the Marmara region. The total production capacity of the corn starch
industry is 1.2 MMT. The sector uses 800,000 MT of domestic corn and produces 515,000 MT of sugar, either in
the form of high fructose corn syrup or glucose syrup.
The Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EPDK) published a regulation on mandatory bio-ethanol and bio-
diesel use on the official gazette dated September 27, 2011. According to the regulation, gasoline should contain
2% (volume) of bio-ethanol which is produced from domestically produced agricultural commodities by January
01, 2013, and 2% by January 01, 2014. Moreover, diesel should contain 1% of biodiesel by January 01, 2014, 2%
by January 01, 2015 and 3% by January 01, 2016.
According to the EPDK 2010 sector report, Turkey consumes 13.9 MMT of diesel and 2.1 MMT of gasoline
every year. In order to blend bio-ethanol with gasoline, Turkey should produce 80,000 m3 of bio-ethanol from
either 1 MMT of domestically produced sugar beets or 250,000 MT of corn.
Keeping in mind that Turkey has a surplus of sugar beet production and the biggest bio-ethanol premises belongs
to a sugar beet cooperative in the Konya region (has 56% of market share), post forecasts that most bio-ethanol
will be produced from sugar beets. The second largest bio-ethanol facility, however, is located in Adana and
belongs to a corn starch company. The third and the fourth largest ones are located in the Marmara region, where
farmers mostly grow corn for either the broiler industry or for silage purpose. Most probably, starting from MY
2012, 100,000 MT of corn will be allocated to bio-ethanol production will be gradually increased every year.
This will also increase DDGS consumption. Bio-ethanol factories are expected to produce 30,000 MT of DDGS
and to sell this to local feed mills.
Table 12: Corn price
TURKEY: Corn price at Commodity Exchange (USD/MT)
MY YEAR SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG
2009 272 279 270 269 287 300 292 300 289 285 306 310
2010 317 345 335 318 347 355 369 391 400 410 438 351
2011 337 336 300 297 305 315 338 325
Source: Adana CME
The corn price was high in the beginning of MY 2011 due to short crop expectation. The crop was indeed short
but demand from the feed industry shifted to wheat and the price started to decline. MY 2011 also saw a volatile
USD/TL exchange ratio. The price was steady after October, rose in March 2012 and is expected to rise a slightly
until August 2012.
The paddy rice price was 485 USD/MT on March 16, 2012 in the Bandirma CME and 540 USD/MT in Mersin
CME. At the Mersin CME, the local rice price was 1020 USD/MT in April 2012.
Turkish consumers prefer the Calrose, Baldo and Osmancik varieties. Annual rice consumption is approximately
7.1 kg/person. In Turkish cuisine rice is very important for making pilaf. Most people prefer the Baldo and
Osmancik (domestic variety) over Calrose.
According to several studies on rice consumption, Turkish families prefer to buy rice once per month. There are
1, 2,5 and 5 kg packages available at the markets. Consumers are very sensitive to price (50%), quality (35%) and
There are 150 paddy rice factories in Turkey. In the last three years exports were the major target of the paddy
rice industry. Previously, the main paddy rice factories were located where paddy rice was produced, like in
Thrace and the South Marmara region. However due to its proximity to export destinations, the port at Mersin is
now the major region attracting new investments in paddy rice factories. There are 10 paddy rice factories in
Mersin. New paddy rice factories in Mersin have very large capacities, around at 100,000 MT. Total Turkish
paddy rice factory capacity is 3,200,000 MT/year and capacity use is very low at 38% in 2011.
Rice companies tend to blend the Calrose with Osmancik varieties to have better prices and this creates some
consistency and quality problems. The new strategy is to sell rice for Pilaf rice instead of marketing it as Calrose
or Baldo. The paddy rice price fluctuated greatly in MY 2011. There were two reasons. One was the high amount
of farmer stocks which was not open for trade and the other was currency fluctuations.
The industry lobbied the government to decrease the 8% VAT on rice to 1%, as the government did for bulgur
and other industries. However, the government does not tend to consider rice as a staple food for Turkish
consumers. They usually think that wheat and wheat products are staple foods but rice is a luxury product.
Table 13: Paddy rice price
Paddy Rice (USD/MT)
SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG
2010 690 860 810 750 710 820 900 753 760 790 710 740
2011 674 710 640 530 530 510 485
Wheat flour exports slowed in February and March because of wheat shipment problems in Russia. Post
estimated MY 2011 wheat import at 3.2 MMT due to slow Russian wheat imports. In MY 2012, strong wheat
product exports will continue and total wheat exports are expected to reach 4 MMT. The major competitor of
the Turkish wheat flour industry is Kazakhstan but they export to neighboring countries and their market variety
is very limited. Turkish millers are looking for new markets and trying to expand their market shares in Latin
American and Africa.
On February 17, 2012, the TMO announced an export tender for 100,000 MT of wheat and 100,000 MT of
barley, held on February 28, 2012. At this tender TMO sold 35,000 MT of white milling wheat, 65,000 MT of
red milling wheat and 100,000 MT of barley.
TMO carried a high amount of wheat and barley stocks in order to avoid disturbing the market since wheat and
barley prices are really high at the market. Prices reached 405 USD/MT for first class red milling wheat and 325
USD/MT for feed barley at the Polatli Commodity Exchange on March 02, 2012.
Table 14: Wheat imports
TURKEY: MAJOR WHEAT SUPPLIERS
Country MY 2008 (MT) MY 2009 (MT) MY 2010 (MT) MY 2011 (MT)*
Russia 2,003,918 2,184,316 587,409 2,090,474
Kazakhstan 219,298 432,536 486,313 118,042
Ukraine 154,432 108,802 581,657 83,614
Hungary 143.951 18,458 131,569 2,680
Moldova 55,399 40,049 53,366 3,146
Lithuania 106,872 88,948 108,532 30,680
U.S. 46,821 0 1,065,573 95,158
Others 1,022,457 50,427 1,119,094 47,497
MY Total 3,609,341 2,923,536 4,133,513 2,471,291
Turkish millers do not use high quality wheat for export purposes. They tend to import high quality wheat for
their own bread and bakery production, usually more than 12% protein wheat, and use low quality domestic
wheat for flour for their export markets.
One of the key factors in wheat trade is the inward process regime certificate. Currently the certificate price is 45
USD/MT, while six months ago it was 80 USD/MT. In order to convert this to flour equivalence you should use
this formula= price of certificate/0.74/0.95. The current actual value of these certificates is 64 USD/MT.
When TMO carries high levels of wheat stocks they open these stocks to millers to make them competitive in the
global market. TMO recently opened 300,000 MT of wheat stocks to millers at a price of 233 USD/MT. There
was very little demand from flour millers but a little bit demand from the feed industry (60,000MT). The main
reason for the lack of interest was the low quality of the wheat.
TMO has just opened their high and medium quality wheat stocks (April 09, 2012) to flour exporters at the price
of 295 USD/MT. TMO sells wheat under inward process regime to millers. TMO uses a conversion rate of 74%
to calculate wheat to wheat flour amounts for export to all countries except Libya (for Libya 69% is acceptable).
It means that after exporting 1 kg of wheat flour, exporters are eligible to buy 1.358 kg of wheat from TMO.
Millers use low quality wheat for Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and flat bread markets of the Middle East and
Africa. The price of domestic low quality wheat is at 315 USD/MT, whereas the first quality domestic wheat
price is 386 USD/MT. There are three factors behind successful Turkish wheat flour exports to Indonesia. One is
the relatively cheap container rate from Turkey to Indonesia, which is 700 USD/container. The second factor is
trade of inward process regime certificates and the third factor is the availability of TMO stocks to millers at
world price when there is need.
Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are and will continue to be major wheat suppliers. Trade is usually done by
small vessels containing around 3,000 MT to 5,000 MT. Vessels come to the Samsun port, are unloaded there
and distributed around the country by trucks.
In February and March, imports from Russia were very slow due to frozen ports in the Sea of Azov and small
stocks in Russia’s south. The orders are expected to come in April and there will be a dramatic increase in wheat
imports. In February 2012, wheat imports dropped to 90,000 MT from 300,000 MT of average monthly imports.
Wheat imports are expected to reach 3.2 MMT in MY 2011 and will have a similar pattern in MY 2012. Post
forecasts wheat imports at 3.3 MMT in MY 2012.
Could U.S wheat compete with Russian wheat in 2012? The answer is it might be if there is right price. There are
some negotiations to buy 60,000 MT of U.S HRW in May 2012. Declined U.S wheat price at the moment helps
U.S wheat to compute with Russian wheat. Turkish millers are always keen to buy DNS wheat but there is
usually big price difference with either Russian or Kazakh wheat. There are a lot of speculations at the moment
on Russian wheat production in MY 2012. The latest Russian wheat quote to Turkey was C&F 260 USD/MT for
11.5% protein wheat.
Figure 4: Turkish milling industry export supply chain
Source: USDA Ankara
There are two large wheat flour exporters to Indonesia, with a market share of 60% in total wheat flour exports to
Indonesia. One is near the Samsun Port and therefore has a logistical advantage both for imports and exports.
The other one is near the port in Istanbul and has financial and logistic advantages. Both of them can import
wheat from Russia at a price of around 240-260 USD/MT.
Wheat flour exporters to Iraq are located in Gaziantep and Mardin, and they are able to send their flour by truck.
They also have the advantage of being near the domestic supply from South East Anatolia. Trade with Iraq is
very much dependent on personal relationships. There are around 15 companies who are active in the Iraq market
but one company in Gaziantep dominates the market due to financial & logistic advantages as well as good
personal relationships. There is no banking system established for electronic money transactions and most money
transfers occur through currency exchange offices and involve high risks.
The Libya market is risky lately because of the recent political instability but one company in Konya is very
active with that market. Recently, Turkish millers began to concentrate on increasing sales to sub-Saharan
Africa. Due to a recent price advantage gained by European millers, Turkish millers lost some of this market
share but expect to gain in back in the future.
Latin America is also an attractive market for Turkish millers. They currently don’t have enough contacts or
experience in that region but would like to increase their level of activity there, and have requested government
assistance to arrange marketing activities or high-level delegation travel to the region.
Turkey exports wheat flour to more than 100 countries but usually 45% goes to Iraq, 25% to Indonesia and 6% to
the Philippines. This heavy dependence on two countries is a liability but in the short term, the Iraq market
remains stable. Iran attempted to compete for a larger share but in 2011 fell behind. Indonesia has its own
milling industry which is growing and threatens the future of Turkish exports to the country. Therefore, Turkish
millers are hoping that Africa will be an important market in the long-term. Another major challenge for the
Turkish milling industry is Russia. When Russia builds up its own milling industry, Turkey will lose a lot of
market share in the Middle East, but in the short term that has not been the case. The industry still discusses
consolidation. There around 700 mills which are active but only 50 are active in the export market. Even though
there are 190 companies who exported flour in MY 2011, ten large mills (with daily capacity of more than 800
MT) will be the main producers in the future if consolidation occurs.
The Turkish government has set the export target at 500 billion USD for 2023 and 2 billion of this they expect to
come from grain millers.
Table 15: Turkish wheat flour exports
TURKEY: MAJOR WHEAT FLOUR EXPORT MARKETS
Country MY 2008 MY 2009 MY 2010 (MT) MY 2011 *(MT)
Iraq 631,748 793,119 800,330 705,823
Indonesia 305,967 429,826 450,584 285,116
Philippines 69,824 126,749 74,172 90,808
Thailand 26,750 31,819 31,797 36,104
Angola 28,975 22,192 698 25,156
Israel 72,565 24,370 37,653 26,333
Libya 59,250 49,367 33,488 141,677
Sudan 66,523 72,337 14,073 5,717
Yemen 1,428 16,491 7,845 1,194
Others 206,964 301,728 331,662 309,096
MY Total 1,469,994 1,867,998 1,782,302 1,627,024
The pasta export markets are steady at the moment, but current investments will result in increased capacity in the
near future. The major concern of the industry is securing a continuous raw material supply. Exports are
relatively new but are expected to grow. A high world durum wheat price created new market opportunities in
Africa. Additionally, some are investing in pasta production facilities in Gaziantep with an eye on the Iraq
market. In MY 2012, pasta exports to Iraq and Africa will be strong. There is a concern about a possible
production decrease in the Konya region, however South East Anatolian high quality durum wheat will possibly
fill the gap. Pasta producers are also very good at blending high quality durum wheat with high quality milling
wheat to maintain consistent raw material quality.
Table 16: Turkish pasta exports
TURKEY: MAJOR PASTA EXPORT MARKETS
Country MY 2008 MY 2009 MY 2010 MY 2012*
(MT) (MT) (MT) (MT)
Iraq 13,437 24,977 25,110 24,886
Benin 4,370 19,663 12,931 28,030
Japan 10,260 14,170 16,510 12,377
Togo 8,941 21,458 30,102 29,047
Angola 7,088 17,000 31,056 43,161
Others 116,822 173,815 208,799 81,128
MY Total 160,918 271,083 324,508 218,629
Semolina and Bulgur exports to the Middle East are still very strong but Syria exports dropped to zero suddenly
as a result of recent turmoil in the region. In MY 2012, bulgur and semolina exporters will target the Middle East.
There are new investments in the Bulgur industry in the Gaziantep region. Libya and Egypt could be new market
opportunities for the sector.
Table 17: Turkish semolina exports
TURKEY: MAJOR SEMOLINA EXPORT MARKETS
Countries MY 2008 MY 2009 MY 2010 MY 2011
(MT) (MT) (MT) (MT)
Oman 0 10,938 14,216 15,463
Iraq 6,253 15,547 31,813 29,924
Saudi Arabia 7,833 13,136 7,047 4,875
Egypt 5,528 9,755 9,797 3,851
Syria 4,192 11,168 21,964 855
Others 21,870 35,999 40,260 49,209
MY Total 45,676 96,543 125,097 104,177
Barley exports were very slow in MY 2011. TMO usually exports barley when there is a surplus. TMO exported
100,000 MT of barley on February 28, 2012 at an average price of 258 USD/MT. Global companies which won
the tender are expected to ship to Middle Eastern countries. At the moment 31,000 MT of barley has already
Table 18: Turkish barley exports
Turkey: Quantity of barley exported
Countries MY 2008 (MT) MY 2009 (MT) MY 2010 (MT) MY 2011 (MT)*
Saudi Arabia 0 558,970 22,100 0
Syria 0 97,250 0 0
Morocco 0 27,500 0 0
Libya 0 31,250 0 0
Iraq 0 13,453 0 2,000
Others 80 49,340 777 516
Total 80 777,763 22,877 2,516
Beer manufacturers have to import malting quality barley. The major supplier is France. Depending on domestic
production, Turkey imports a long term average of about 50,000 MT of barley for malting.
Table 19: Turkish barley imports
Turkey: Quantity of barley imported
Countries MY 2008 (MT) MY 2009 (MT) MY 2010 (MT) MY 2011 (MT)*
France 71,957 57,016 47,322 14,182
Ukraine 25,726 0 2,500 475
United Kingdom 0 5,454 0 0
Russia 29,898 0 0 11
Romania 9,430 0 0 0
Others 19 1 0 11,111
Total 141,111 62,470 49,849 25,779
Since September 26, 2010 when the phase-in period for the Biosafety Law and the two associated regulations
ended, corn and corn derivatives cannot be imported, except in limited quantities from some EU countries and
Black Sea Countries by paying a premium to get certified non-biotech corn.
The Turkish Feed Millers Association submitted applications for approval of all EU approved biotech corn events
for feed purposes (22 events) in January 14, 2011. Thirteen of them were approved in December 24, 2011 for
import for feed use and the 9 remaining corn applications are under review.
The socioeconomic committee reports for the remaining 9 corn genes recommend that if the genes are approved,
approvals should only be for 5 years instead of 10 so that if corn imports are not needed in 5 years the approval
can be revoked. The socioeconomic committee reports also recommend that any products or byproducts from
animals that consumed biotech feed should be labeled as having come from animals that consumed GMOs. The
reports also recommend that the tariff on corn be raised to the maximum level. Moreover the scientific risk
assessment reports for three of the events recommend approval, but for six of the events recommend rejection.
The basis of the recommendation for rejection is that the committee concluded that not enough information is
known about the events.
The Biosafety Board plans to meet in early April, and it is expected that they will make a decision on the 9 events
at that meeting. The Board’s decision must then be reviewed by the Agriculture Ministry for final signature and
publication. It is expected that because of the negative media coverage, the Board will be under pressure to reject
at least 6 of the 9 remaining corn events.
Table 20: Biotechnology corn approvals
Turkey: Biotechnology corn approval situation
Approved Reviewed by Risk Assessment and Reviewed by Risk Assessment and
varieties Socio Economic Committee and Socio Economic Committee and
December 24, waiting Biosafety Board approval. waiting Biosafety Board approval.
2011 Found no risk, February 06, 2012 Found potentially risky, February 06,
Bt11 MON88017 MON 863
DAS1507 DAS59122xNK603 MON 863x NK603
DAS59122 MON 810 MON 863xMON810
NK603 MON 863x MON810xNK603
Bt11 x GA21
59122 x 1507 x
Corn area and production decreased in MY 2011, and the defacto corn import ban caused by the Biosafety
Law increased expectations of a corn price increase among traders. But major corn purchasers, the broiler
industry, switched from corn to wheat and barley as a feed raw material due to inconsistent supply of other
ingredients. In the beginning of MY 2011, corn traders procured corn at 610-630 TL/MT and then the price
dropped suddenly to 530 TL in January 2012. The corn price is still has not reached the expected level, and
remains at 580 TL/MT.
Corn imports from the United States declined dramatically in MY 2010 and MY 2011. Ukraine is the major
winner in the market. Of the two major industries that use corn, corn starch and the broiler and livestock
industry, the corn starch industry is more sensitive about biotech corn use because it is a food ingredient and
therefore they buy raw materials domestically. The major buyer for imported corn is the broiler and livestock
industry who are located mostly in the Marmara region, near the black sea shippers. The U.S corn market
therefore only has an advantage in selling corn by-products such as DDGS and CGF. The major opponent of
DDGS and CGF imports are millers, either wheat millers or oilseed millers. Wheat bran and oilseed bran was
very cheap when there was DDGS and CGF imports, but prices increased dramatically after the ban on corn
product imports. The wheat bran price reached 220 USD/MT. There are still a high demand for DDGS and CGF
due to lack of enough protein raw material.
Corn demand, whether the biotech corn issue is solved or not, will be low in MY 2012 due to increased domestic
production. Corn imports are forecast at 300,000 MT for MY 2012.
Table 21: Corn imports
Turkey: Quantity of corn imports (MT)
Countries MY 2008 MY 2009 MY 2010 MY 2011 *
Ukraine 181,788 137,392 79,781 20,342
Romania 42,829 77,380 106,905 57,676
Russia 100,148 84,750 2,871 109,756
U.S. 22,988 7,225 401 493
Argentina 11,390 13,055 8,800 5,782
Others 57,263 192,017 131,342 34,210
Total 416,406 511,819 330,100 228,259
The Turkish government tried very hard to hinder DDGS and CGF imports by creating Turkish Standard Institute
standards on fat content of DDGS, on top of its defacto bans created by the Biosafety Law. The broiler and
livestock industries would like to use DDGS because of its reasonable price and high protein and fat content.
Three companies have managed to import U.S. produced DDGS in MY 2011 at around 70,000 MT in March,
2012 which was not reflected at the below table. This trade is expected to grow in MY 2012.
Table 22: DDGS imports
Turkey: DDGS imports (MT)
Countries M Y 2008 MY 2009 MY 2010 MY 2011*
U.S. 402,245 368,961 305,904 20,130
Canada 7,099 3,972 918 0
Ukraine 5,920 13,699 14,962 0
Russia 0 0 2,470 3,386
Others 480 27,312 104,212 44,386
Total 415,744 413,944 428,466 67,902
In MY 2012, DDGS and CGF imports are forecasted at 150,000 MT of each. Turkey’s broiler industry recently
completed negotiations and plant inspections required to sell to Saudi Arabia. If demand increases as a result, this
will lead to increased demand for DDGS and CGF. The domestic ethanol industry, which produces around
50,000 MT of DDGS at the moment, is expected to grow after the bio-ethanol mandate is put into effect in 2013.
DDGS is more popular than CGF among the poultry industry because of its high protein content. Approval of 13
corn varieties opened the window for some DDGS imports to Turkey.
Table 23:CGF Imports
Turkey: CGF imports
Countries M Y 2008 MY 2009 MY 2010 MY 2011*
U.S. 355,326 216,992 107,007 8,573
Canada 0 0 0 0
Ukraine 36,724 43,123 58,570 28,748
Russia 0 846 331 2,307
Others 16,048 31,777 66,082 32,391
Total 408,098 292,738 231,990 72,019
In MY 2011, paddy rice imports were very slow. There are two main reasons. First is the high level of domestic
production and the second is the high global paddy rice price. Most of the paddy rice imports are done under an
inward process regime for export purposes. Paddy millers are concentrated in the Mersin region where they are
closer to Middle Eastern countries. About 50,000 MT of paddy rice will arrive in April and 50,000 MT is
contracted for May, 2012 delivery. Post estimates MY 2011 imports at 250,000 MT and MY 2012 imports are
forecasted at 220,000 MT. Actual imports will depend on export demand.
Table 24: Rice imports
Turkey: Rice imports
Country M Y 2008 MY 2009 MY 2010 MY 2011*
U.S 53,268 165,102 212,900 64,424
Russia 5,919 81,680 121,007 36,213
Egypt 51,898 56,889 217 0
Thailand 21,948 2,016 2,423 1,639
Pakistan 15,541 21,798 4,561 498
Italy 4,910 29,426 6,801 1,363
Others 56,293 101,791 76,879 16,667
Total 209,777 458,702 424,788 120,804
Paddy rice are still an important import and millers want to import brown rice from the United States, but sales
are limited now because of high prices.
Previously, imports were mainly done for domestic use but recently imports for the export markets increased
drastically. This led to many changes in the rice trading sector. Millers who also have export connections are
now in an advantageous position in the paddy rice market. Moreover some new grain companies with strong
financial situations but less market experience are active in the paddy rice market.
Table 25: Rice imports, classified by process
Rice import; classified by process
MY 2010 MY 2011
R Semi- Semi-ice in Husked in Husked
Coun Wholly Broken
try the rice the rice
Husk (Brown milled rice ) Hu milled rice sk (Brown)
U.S 200,383 12,442 75 0 38,624 25,780 22 0
Russia 116,723 794 3,515 0 32,747 0 3466 0
Egypt 0 0 217 0 0 0 0 0
Thailand 0 30 2,393 0 0 0 1639 0
Pakistan 0 0 4,561 0 0 0 498 0
Italy 109 0 6,692 0 0 0 1363 0
Others 48,840 0 28,038 0 12,307 0 4,359 0
Total 366,055 13,266 45,491 0 83,678 25,780 11,347 0
Libya and Syria are the most important markets for Turkish rice millers. Exports to Libya reached 40,175 MT in
MY 2011 and 11,965 MT in MY 2012 (September-February). Due to turmoil in Syria exports slowed and
exporters are now having difficulty to transport contracted sales to Syria. There are some new actors in the Libya
market with experience in other commodities. This experience will help rice exports to Libya. Rice exports in
MY 2011 are estimated at 75,000 MT and forecasted at 80,000 MT in MY 2012.
An inward processing regime was successfully applied to the paddy rice sector, similar to one used in the wheat
sector. The main target is to allow Turkey to become the rice miller for the region. They import paddy rice mainly
from the United States, mill it, and export it to the Middle East and North African countries. Recent large big
investments in the Mersin port increased the capacity and price competition of the sector greatly. Their major
concern is the government’s calculation of the conversion and efficiency ratios. Under the inward processing
regime, the conversion factor is 60%, bran is 15% and hull is 20%. Traders asked the government to change this
calculation to conversion factor 60%, bran 9%, and hull 20% and broken rice 11%. In the current system they are
not able to use broken rice under the inward processing regime. If the government changes the calculation,
exporters will be able to meet the broken rice demand mostly coming from the Middle East.
Table 26: Rice exports
Turkey: Rice Exports(MT)
Countries M Y 2008 MY 2009 MY 2010 MY 20011*
Syria 9,049 17,002 23,118 20,683
Jordan 4,711 3,668 2,209 636
Sudan 0 621 1,525 110
Iraq 1,042 3,451 1,395 1,893
Others 9,071 1,584 65,544 29,848
Total 23,873 26,326 93,791 53,170
TMO has around 4.5-5 MMT of elevator capacity and is investing in modernizing its elevators. TMO is also
renting modern elevators from the private sector. At the moment TMO has 500,000 MT of port elevators, 3.5
MMT of inland elevators and 130,000 MT of long-term rented elevators. TMO carries 1.84 MMT of wheat
stocks into MY 2012. Due to a high level of imports initiated by government decision to decrease the import tariff
to zero on February 25, 2011 and 300,000 MT of two TMO import tenders on February 15 and January 22, 2011,
Turkey carried a high level of stocks to MY 2011. Until February 2012, the high stock level was a concern to
traders and farmers as well but due to slow down of Russian imports because of bad weather conditions, domestic
stocks were heavily used by millers in February and March. The private sector at the moment has high stock