Raisin Annual 2011

An Expert's View about Agriculture and Animal Husbandry in Turkey

Last updated: 19 Aug 2011

The raisin production estimate for Turkey in MY 2011 is 260,000 MT. In MY 2009 raisin production was recorded as 250,000 MT.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 7/28/2011 Turkey Raisin Annual Turkey Raisin Annual 2011 Approved By: Rachel Nelson, Agricultural Attache Prepared By: Yasemin Erkut, Agricultural Specialist Report Highlights: The raisin production estimate for Turkey in MY 2011 is 260,000 MT. In MY 2009 raisin production was recorded as 250,000 MT. This is slightly lower than the previous year due to heavy rains. The export volume is predicted to be around 210,000 MT both in MY 2010 and in MY 2011. Executive Summary: Raisin production was recorded to be 260,000 MT in MY 2009. Production in MY 2010 was down to 250,000 MT, slightly lower than the predictions, mostly due to heavy rains. EU countries continued to be the top export destinations for Turkish raisins and export volume remained stable in MY 2009 and in MY 2010. Exports in MY 2009 were about 209,000 MT. It is predicted that by the end of MY 2010 exports will reach 210,000 MT. In MY 2010, raisin exports are estimated to stay around the same level as MY 2010 if weather conditions permit. The United Kingdom was the top export destination for Turkey both in MY 2009 and in MY 2010. Commodities: Raisins Production: Grapes are grown throughout Turkey. Seedless grape production expanded significantly in Turkey in the 1990?s due to more intensive cultivation and better irrigation techniques. Seedless grapes, virtually all of which are ?Vitis viniserae L , constitute about 40 percent of Turkey?s total grape crop and are grown only in the Aegean part of Turkey (western). There are over 1,200 different grape varieties in Turkey. The Aegean region produces seedless grapes, the Marmara region produces table and wine grapes, and Central Anatolia and Southeast Anatolia produce table and wine grapes. Every year approximately 5-10 percent of the grape harvest is dried. Seedless grapes are mainly produced in the Aegean region, especially in Manisa, Turgutlu, Salihli, Akhisar, Menemen, Kemalpasa, Cal and Civril. Seedless grape production is 10 percent of total grape production. Both MY2009 and MY 2010 were not very good years for the production due to heavy rains. Unfortunate weather conditions affected the yields and production of raisins dropped significantly in MY 2009 compared to the previous year. In MY 2009 total raisin (sultana) production was recorded to be 260,000 MT. The production in MY 2010 was not very good either and there was a slight decrease of about 4 percent. Raisin production is estimated to reach just 250,000 MT in MY2010. The Sultana Raisins Association, which was established in 1934, formed the basis of ?TARIS Raisins Agricultural Sales Cooperatives Union?. The cooperatives of the union spread across the Aegean Region, in the western part of Turkey. In this region, the area used for the cultivation of TARIS raisins comprises approximately 75,000 ha. The vineyards of the grower members of TARIS have always set a very good example in the region regarding the yield and the quality of the product. TARIS has recommended in recent years that producers limit their seedless grape orchard areas because the export market was supposedly saturated. Seedless grapes generally are grown on small farms averaging about 1.3 hectares. It is estimated that nearly 65,000 growers produce seedless grapes in Turkey. About half of all raisin producers are members of TARIS. Each year TARIS announces a procurement price for raisins, which also serves as a support price. TARIS is required to buy raisins from its members but members are free to sell to other buyers and they often do. In general, TARIS purchases around 15-20 percent of total production. Industry contacts and producers predict that MY 2011 production will be about 260,000 MT if weather conditions permit. In the valley part of the Aegean region, frost problems were observed in MY 2010. Due to heavy rainfall, chemical sprays couldn't be effectively applied to many vineyards. Mildew disease, which had not been seen much in the region, was observed in several places. Official grape production numbers are collected by provincial offices of the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock. The Turkish Statistics Institute (TUIK) evaluates and publishes official statistics for grape production, which are often higher than actual levels. According to official statistics, Turkey produces approximately 4.2 MMT of grapes annually. Table type grapes comprise a 25-30% share, drying type grapes comprise a 35-38% share, grapes for traditional products such as pekmez (molasses) comprise a 20-25% share and alcoholic beverage type grapes comprise a 10-15% share. Consumption: Domestic raisin consumption fluctuates depending upon the supply and quality of the raisin crop. Turkey is estimated to consume about 30,000 MT of raisins for confectionary purposes. Low quality raisins are also used for distillation purposes in raki production (raki is a strong Turkish alcoholic drink). The exact quantity of raisins being used for raki production changes according to demand. The Raki industry usually demands 350,000 MT of grapes, which is equivalent to 85,000 MT raisins. The brandy and wine industries demand about 80,000 MT of grapes annually. According to estimates, the capacity of the Turkish wine industry is 120 million liters. There are numerous firms in the dried fruit processing and export business in Turkey; however, the top ten firms are estimated to control about 80 percent of the raisin market. TARIS?s role in procuring and marketing raisins has been decreasing in conjunction with IMF backed reforms to reduce the government?s role in agriculture. In general, TARIS has been the buyer of last resort, purchasing a large percentage of lower quality raisins. The quantity of raisins TARIS procured has varied from as low as 9,000 MT to as high as 75,000 MT during the last ten years due to variable production levels and quality. TARIS and the Izmir Commodity Exchange are the two price determinants in the market. The former announces the advance procurement prices in the beginning of the season and the latter is the main cash market for raisins. Trade: Traditionally the EU countries have been the top export destinations for Turkey. In MY 2009 and 2010, United Kingdom, Germany and Holland continued to be the top three importers of Turkish raisins. Table: 1 Raisin exports in MY08, MY09 and MY10 Turkey: Quantity of raisin exported Countries MY 2008 (MT) MY 2009 (MT) MY 2010 (MT)* United Kingdom 59,051 41,725 45,849 Germany 46,550 29,643 28,533 Holland 32,947 24,836 18,388 Italy 17,802 13,514 4,025 France 16,178 12,683 18,710 Australia 17,295 9,666 7,005 U.S 161 43 21 Others 95,274 41,694 122,531 Total 285,258 173,804 160,872 Source: TUIK (Note: MY 2010 is based on data from September 2010 through May 2011) Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Table: 2 Production, Supply and Demand Statistics 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Raisins Market Year Begin: Sep 2009 Market Year Begin: Sep 2010 Market Year Begin: Sep 2011 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 85,000 85,000 85,000 85,000 85,000 Area Harvested 85,000 85,000 85,000 85,000 85,000 Beginning Stocks 5,947 5,947 4,700 20,000 4,500 Production 260,000 260,000 260,000 250,000 260,000 Imports 3,000 1,000 2,000 1,000 2,000 Total Supply 268,947 266,947 266,700 271,000 266,500 Exports 217,200 209,665 220,000 210,000 210,000 Domestic Consumption 47,047 37,282 42,200 56,500 53,500 Ending Stocks 4,700 20,000 4,500 4,500 3,000 Total Distribution 268,947 266,947 266,700 271,000 266,500
Posted: 17 August 2011, last updated 19 August 2011

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