Raisin production is predicted to increase compared to the previous year and reach 270,000 MT in MY 2012.
THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY
USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT
Required Report - public distribution
GAIN Report Number:
Raisin Annual 2012
Jess K. Paulson, Agriculture Attaché
Raisin production is predicted to increase compared to the previous year and reach 270,000 MT in MY
2012. In line with higher production level, exports are also expected to increase slightly. EU countries
continued to be top export destinations.
Turkish raisin production is predicted to increase slightly in MY 2012 compared to the previous year
and reach 270,000 MT. The weather conditions were rather good in most raisin producing areas this
MY 2011 production was recorded to be lower than earlier predictions, and at 250,000 MT was the
same as the MY 2010 level.
European countries continued to be the top export destination in MY 2011. Raisin exports reached 85%
(213,500 MT) of production in MY 2011. Exporters anticipate increased exports in MY 2012 due to the
higher production estimate.
Turkey produces approximately 4.2 MMT of grapes annually. Table grapes make up 25-30% of
production, whereas drying grapes make up 35-38%, grapes for traditional products such as pekmez
(molasses) 20-25%, and grapes for alcoholic beverage approximately 10-15%.
Grapes are grown throughout Turkey. Seedless grape production expanded significantly in Turkey in
the 1990‟s due to more intensive cultivation and better irrigation techniques. Seedless grapes, virtually
all of which are „Vitis viniserae L , constitute about 40 percent of Turkey‟s total grape crop and are
grown only in Aegean (western) part of Turkey. There are over 1,200 different grape varieties in
Turkey. The Aegean region produces seedless grapes, the Marmara region produces table and wine
grapes, and Central Anatolia and Southeast Anatolia produce table and wine grapes.
Every year approximately 10 percent of the grape harvest is dried. Seedless grapes are mainly produced
in the Aegean region, especially in Manisa, Turgutlu, Salihli, Akhisar, Menemen, Kemalpasa, Cal and
Despite expectations, raisin production was the same in MY 2011as in MY 2010. Production was
recorded to be 250,000 MT in MY 2011, which was lower than predicted due to unfavorable weather
conditions in some production areas. Production in MY 2012, however, is expected to improve as the
conditions were favorable this season. Industry contacts estimate an 8 percent increase, and therefore
raisin production is predicted to reach 270,000 MT in MY 2012.
The Sultana Raisins Association, which was established in 1934, formed the basis of “TARIS Raisins
Agricultural Sales Cooperatives Union”. In general, TARIS purchases around 15-20 percent of total
production. The cooperatives of the union spread across the Aegean Region, which is located in the
western part of Turkey. Of 75,000 ha of total area in production approximately 39,000 ha belongs to the
members of TARIS. The vineyards of the members of TARIS have always set a very good example in
the region regarding the yield and the quality of the product.
TARIS has recommended in recent years that producers limit their seedless grape orchard areas because
the export market was supposedly saturated. Seedless grapes are generally grown on small farms
averaging about 1.3 hectares. It is estimated that nearly 65,000 growers produce seedless grapes in
Turkey. About half of all raisin producers are members of TARIS. Each year TARIS announces a
procurement price for raisins, which also serves as a support price. TARIS is required to buy raisins
from its members but members are free to sell to other buyers and they often do.
There are numerous firms in the dried fruit processing and export business in Turkey; however, the top
ten firms are estimated to control about 80 percent of the raisin market.
TARIS‟s role in procuring and marketing raisins has been decreasing in conjunction with IMF backed
reforms to reduce the government‟s role in agriculture. In general, TARIS has been the buyer of last
resort, purchasing a large percentage of lower quality raisins. The quantity of raisins TARIS procured
has varied from as low as 9,000 MT to as high as 75,000 MT during the last ten years due to variable
production levels and quality.
TARIS and the Izmir Commodity Exchange are the two price determinants in the market. The former
announces the advance procurement prices in the beginning of the season and the latter is the main cash
market for raisins.
Domestic raisin consumption fluctuates depending upon the supply and quality of the raisin crop. Low
quality raisins are also used for distillation purposes in raki production (raki is a strong Turkish
alcoholic drink). The exact quantity of raisins being used for raki production changes according to
demand. The Raki industry usually demands 350,000 MT of grapes, which is equivalent to 85,000 MT
raisins. The brandy and wine industries demand about 80,000 MT of grapes annually. According to
estimates, the capacity of the Turkish wine industry is 120 million liters.
EU countries continued to be the top export destinations for Turkish raisins both in MY 2011 and are
predicted to be in MY 2012 as well. Exports reached 213,500 MT (85% of total production) in MY
2011. United Kingdom, Germany and Holland became the top three importers of Turkish raisins in the
previous marketing year. Due to the predicted increase in production in MY 2012, exporters expect
higher sales to the EU.
Table: 1 Production, Supply and Demand Statistics
Raisins Turkey 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013
Market Year Begin: Sep 2010 Market Year Begin: Sep 2011 Market Year Begin: Sep 2012
USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post
Area Planted 85,000 85,000 0 85,000 85,000
Area Harvested 85,000 85,000 0 85,000 85,000
Beginning Stocks 4,700 4,700 4,500 4,000 3,500
Production 250,000 250,000 260,000 250,000 270,000
Imports 2,100 1,000 2,000 1,500 1,000
Total Supply 256,800 255,700 266,500 255,500 274,500
Exports 212,000 210,000 215,000 213,500 225,000
Domestic Consumption 40,300 41,700 47,000 38,500 45,000
Ending Stocks 4,500 4,000 4,500 3,500 4,500
Total Distribution 256,800 255,700 266,500 255,500 274,500