Soybean and Products Update

An Expert's View about Agriculture and Animal Husbandry in Turkey

Posted on: 7 Dec 2011

MY 2010 imports of soybean reached 1.35 MMT, higher than early season estimates due to higher utilization in poultry and dairy industries.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 11/23/2011 GAIN Report Number: Turkey Oilseeds and Products Update Soybean and Products Update Approved By: Clay Hamilton Prepared By: Ibrahim Sirtioglu, Senior Agricultural Specialist Report Highlights: MY 2010 imports of soybean reached 1.35 MMT, higher than early season estimates due to higher utilization in poultry and dairy industries. Imports from US remained about 419,000 MT about 50 percent of the previous year mainly due to biotech restrictions and buyers postponing purchases to the second half of the marketing year because of large carryover that benefited South American sources. Soybean meal imports are up, reaching 534,000 MT. Soy oil imports however were lower than expected due to price advantage of competing oils and new bio-safety law limiting utilization. FY 2011 utilization of the GSM-102 credit guarantee program was limited for US soybean and meal purchases due to the import restrictions during the finalization of the new bio-safety law. Post: Commodities: Ankara Author Defined: Production MY 2011 Turkish soybean area and production is expected to remain about 15,000 hectares and 50,000 MT. The decline from last year is due to increase in cotton and corn planting in the region. Soybean meal and oil production has been adversely affected by the recent bio-safety law that limited usage of biotech products for feed use only and prevented its use for industrial and food products. During the second half of the MY 2010 imported biotech soybeans for crushing slowed down and some crushers switched to other seeds since byproducts such as soy oil were not allowed to be used for industrial uses such as paint which affected crushing margins adversely. Availability of low cost European soy meal also affected marketing of locally crushed soy meal. In September, the GOT approved utilization of biotech soy oil in paint hence crushing expected to recover somewhat in MY 2011. Consumption Turkey?s poultry industry, both broiler and egg, continued to grow in 2011 pushing higher utilization of soy bean and meal. Increases in local poultry meat and egg production were the main reasons for local soy products consumption. Low local prices of soybean meal increased usage in dairy rations as well, pushing soy meal consumption to higher levels. The high cost of local corn, due to low local production and import restrictions on biotech corn, also persuaded millers to utilize higher percentage of full fat soybean along with feed wheat in rations. The Turkish poultry industry continued to grow with high rates in recent years. Broiler production had grown about thirteen percent in 2010, and an estimated twelve percent increase is also foreseen for 2011. Accordingly total domestic poultry production is estimated to reach 1.7 MMT at the end of the year. High local red meat prices and exports are the main causes of production increase. The layer industry is also expected to grow in 2011, about nine percent, due to increases in domestic consumption and exports. Both industries continue to export to neighboring Middle Eastern countries which provide additional cash flow during the seasonal fluctuation in the domestic market. Consumption increases in the aquaculture also contributes total soybean domestic consumption. Consumption of locally produced soy oil is facing problems due to limitations in usage other than feed. Only recently the crushing industry was able to convince the government to restart the usage of soy oil in industrial products such as paint. But food use of soy oil is still not permitted hence adversely affecting crushing income. Crushers who used to sell soy oil to margarine producers are stuck with high inventories of soy oil that they can?t sell. Strict local rules do not even allow local crushers to refine crude soy oil and export due to possible contamination to other oils during the process. Illegal use of soy oil for bio-diesel purpose is also stopped due to increase in controls. It is reported that soy crushing has been reduced significantly in recent months with no sign of an increase in the near future. Trade Turkish imports of soybean declined to 1.35 MMT in MY 2010 (September/August) compared to 1,65 MMT a year ago. In MY 2009 importers rush to secure supplies for months ahead due to uncertainty caused by the new bio-safety law creating large yearend stocks. The US supplied 419,000 MT, about thirty-one percent of the total imports in MY 2010. South American countries such as Brazil (363,000 MT), Paraguay (279,000 MT), Argentina (141,000 MT) and Uruguay (31,000 MT) and also Black Sea countries Ukraine (142,000 MT), Moldova (31,000 MT) and Romania (6,000 MT) were other suppliers. The US share has shrunk during the last two years due complications caused by the new bio-security law and high US soybean prices. Turkish importers usually buy US soybean during the first half of the marketing year and move to South America during the second half. In MY 2009, during the creation of the new bio safety law imports were stopped and opened during the process and when imports were allowed it was favorable era for South American sources. During MY 2010 however, high US prices were challenged by low cost Ukrainian and later in the season by Brazilian soybeans. Soybean meal imports during MY 2010(Oct-Sept) reached 534,000 MT representing about fifty percent increase compared to a year ago due to availability of competitively priced soybean meal from the EU and South America sources. Argentina is the leading supplier with 199,000 MT, followed by the US (125,000 MT) and India (59,000 MT). Turkey imported a large amount of EU sourced soy meal as well due to import tax advantage. Accordingly, imported soy meal from EU sources are subject zero import tax versus thirteen percent from other sources. Holland (100,000 MT) Germany (88,000 MT) Spain (33,000 MT) and Romania (12,000 MT) were the leading EU countries supplying soy meal to Turkey. Turkish soybean oil imports during the MY 2010 were about 3,000 MT of which 1,000 MT were US origin and 2,000 MT Israel. Turkish refined soy oil exports however exceeded imports reaching 4,500 MT during the same period. The northern part of Cyprus is the leading buyer of Turkish soy oil. Turkish crushers had to offer soy oil with competitive prices for exports due to marketing problems at home. Uncertainties in regards to biotech soybean and products imports during the time of GSM-102 announcement caused soy bean and products purchases under the program to decline during FY 2011 but historically the program had been an important factor for sales of US agricultural products to Turkey in general and soybean and products in particular. Soybean PSD Table Soybean Turkey 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Sept. 2009 Market Year Begin: Sept. 2010 Market Year Begin: Sept. 2011 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 12 12 12 17 12 15 Area Harvested 12 12 17 17 15 15 Beginning Stocks 136 136 617 409 293 329 Production 40 40 60 60 50 50 MY Imports 1,860 1,648 1,100 1,350 1,400 1,450 MY Imp. from U.S. 870 806 400 419 400 400 MY Imp. from EU 0 14 0 6 0 10 Total Supply 2,036 1,824 1,777 1,819 1,743 1,829 MY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crush 520 530 550 520 550 500 Food Use Dom. Cons. 25 10 25 0 25 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 874 875 909 970 890 1,020 Total Dom. Cons. 1,419 1,415 1,484 1,490 1,465 1,520 Ending Stocks 617 409 293 329 278 309 Total Distribution 2,036 1,824 1,777 1,819 1,743 1,829 CY Imports 1,800 974 1,280 1,756 1,400 1,400 CY Imp. from U.S. 870 660 400 792 500 300 CY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Soybean Meal PSD Table Soybean Meal Turkey 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Oct 2009 Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 Market Year Begin: Oct 2011 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Crush 520 530 550 520 550 500 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 1. 0.8 1. 0.8 1. 0.8 Beginning Stocks 26 26 117 115 274 217 Production 415 424 439 416 439 400 MY Imports 413 362 550 534 450 480 MY Imp. from U.S. 130 92 100 125 120 100 MY Imp. from EU 3 48 3 243 0 140 Total Supply 854 812 1,106 1,065 1,163 1,097 MY Exports 7 7 7 8 10 10 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 730 690 825 840 892 900 Total Dom. Cons. 730 690 825 840 892 900 Ending Stocks 117 115 274 217 261 187 Total Distribution 854 812 1,106 1,065 1,163 1,097 CY Imports 385 352 350 408 350 580 CY Imp. from U.S. 150 222 125 114 120 100 CY Exports 5 3 5 7 5 7 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 SME 730 690 825 840 892 900 Soybean Oil PSD Table Soybean Oil Turkey 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Oct 2009 Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 Market Year Begin: Oct 2011 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Crush 520 530 550 520 550 500 Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0. 0.1811 0. 0.1808 0. 0.18 Beginning Stocks 1 1 5 7 6 18 Production 93 96 98 94 98 90 MY Imports 9 9 5 3 5 2 MY Imp. from U.S. 1 1 0 1 0 0 MY Imp. from EU 1 1 1 0 1 1 Total Supply 103 106 108 104 109 110 MY Exports 3 3 7 5 10 10 MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial Dom. Cons. 21 21 23 25 20 35 Food Use Dom. Cons. 53 35 50 6 49 0 Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 21 40 22 50 20 55 Total Dom. Cons. 95 96 95 81 89 90 Ending Stocks 5 7 6 18 10 10 Total Distribution 103 106 108 104 109 110 CY Imports 10 10 10 10 10 2 CY Imp. from U.S. 0 3 0 0 0 1 CY Exports 3 3 4 4 0 4 CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0
Posted: 07 December 2011

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