Sugar Annual 2011

An Expert's View about Sugar and Support Services in Turkey

Last updated: 12 May 2011

The Sugar Board decreased the A sugar production quota to 2.2 MMT this marketing year to avoid a build-up of stocks.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 5/4/2011 Turkey Sugar Annual Turkey Sugar Annual 2011 Approved By: Rachel Nelson Prepared By: Meliha Atalaysun Report Highlights: The Sugar Board decreased the A sugar production quota to 2.2 MMT this marketing year to avoid a build-up of stocks. In response to lower production quotas, the MY 2011 sugar beet production in Turkey is estimated at 14.0 MMT. MY 2011 total centrifugal sugar production is estimated at just under 2.3 MMT. In 2010, bid results from attempted privatization were cancelled by the Council of State and privatization has been halted. Executive Summary: Turkey?s sugar beet production for MY 2011 is estimated to be 14 MMT from a planted area of approximately 320,000 hectares. Since the favorable weather conditions of MY 2010 led to a higher-than-expected sugar output, the Sugar Board decreased the country?s A quota for beet sugar from 2,438 MMT to 2,200 MMT this marketing year to avoid excess stocks. The same quota amounts have been announced for the upcoming MY 2012 as well. Therefore the sugar beet production forecast for MY 2012 remains at 2.3 MMT. Commodities: Sugar Beets Sugar, Centrifugal Production: Due to climatic conditions, sugar cane is not grown in Turkey and sugar is produced from sugar beets. Sugar beet production costs approximately USD 70 per ton. Sugar beets are grown mostly around Central Anatolia and the beets are planted in rotations with cereals, pulses, fodder crops and sunflowers. Sugar beets are planted in the spring, around April, and are mostly harvested in October. The Sugar Law (Nr.4634) was put into effect on 2001 with the aim of regulating production and demand in order to maintain self sufficiency. The Law established a Sugar Board that announces a production quota for the whole sector every year. Government intervention in prices was also lifted under this Law, and the price started to be determined by the consensus of sugar factories and producers (or their representatives) before plantation. As a result, beet prices increased from 88 TL/MT in 2003 to 118 TL/MT in 2010, and the sugar price that was 1.36 TL/kg in 2003 reached 1.77 TL/kg in 2010. Beet sugar production and sales since the enforcement of the latest Sugar Law are given in the following table. PRODUCTION AND SALES (1000 MT) MARKETING YEARS 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 Total P 2,157 1,762 1,940 2,070 1,845 1,708 2,152 2,531 roduction BEET Domestic SUGAR Sales (A+B 1,636 1,618 1,700 1,713 1,901 1,684 1,828 2,158 Quota) Export Sales 259 364 178 256 217 178 185 241 (C Quota Sugar) Production quotas are determined annually by the Sugar Board, with oversight by the Ministry of Industry and Trade. Quotas are divided into three groups. The ?A? quota specifies how much sugar (from both corn and sugar beets) companies can sell in Turkey within a marketing year, which is from September 1 to August 31 (). The ?B? quota is an extra amount that can be produced and the volume is calculated as a certain percentage (generally 4%) of the A quota. The ?C? quota is allocated for export sugar and is sold at world prices. C quota sugar cannot be marketed domestically and is only for utilization in products that will be exported. Turkey Sugar Production Quotas (MT) 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 A Quota 2,438,000 2,200,000 2,200,000 B Quota 122,000 88,000 88,000 SBS Quota (initial) 271,000 244,000 244,000 Country Total 2,831,000 2,532,000 2,532,000 The Sugar Board has seven members: four government officials and one representative from each of the following: the state-owned Turkish Sugar Corporation (TSC), Pankobirlik (Sugar Producers Cooperative) and starch-based sweetener producers. The quota distributed to state and private companies is based on their performance during the previous three years. In turn, farmers contract with beet refineries to process their output at a set procurement volume and price. The harvested area has averaged 340,000 hectares (about 840,000 acres) annually over the past decade. In MY 2011, post expects the planted area to contract down to 320,000 hectares due to the decreased production quotas and the high amount of stocks carried over from the previous marketing year. Total sugar production is therefore expected to fall to 14,000 MT. The Sugar Board estimated the number of sugar beet farms in 2008 at 209,000 and 187,937 in 2009. While the number of beet farms has decreased, yields have increased due to the use of modern agricultural techniques, especially in irrigation. In MY 2010, with the help of good weather conditions, beet yields were at a record 53 metric tons per hectare compared to the previous nine-year annual average of 41 tons. Sugar Beet Production and Prices In the Turkish sugar sector there are 7 beet sugar producers and 5 starch based sugar (SBS) producers, and the total sugar production quota is allocated to these 12 companies. The 7 beet sugar producers have 33 factories which have a total production capacity of 3.1 million MT per year. 6 of these 7 companies are private and one of them is public. The map below shows the locations of all production facilities throughout Turkey. The plants marked with gray color (25) are public beet sugar production factories that belong to Turkiye Seker Fabrikalari A.S. The green ones (8) are private beet sugar production factories and the yellow ones are private starch based sugar production plants (6). Many of the state-owned factories operated by Turkiye Seker Fabrikalari A.S (TSC) were opened in areas with high unemployment rates, and the government had further supported the sector with high procurement prices in the past (before the enactment of the Sugar Law). Sugar beets are planted in areas specified by the Sugar Board and production is carried out based on the quotas specified and allocated by the Sugar Board, as per the contracts negotiated between the growers (and/or their representatives) and the producer companies (or plants). Yearly sugar beet production and average yields are given at the table below. TURKEY SUGAR BEET PLANTATION, PRODUCTION & YIELDS AND BEET PRICES 16% Polar Sugar Beet Planted Area (1000 Beets Produced Average Yield MT/Da Years m2) (Paid For) (1000 m2) Prices MT TL/Ton 2005 3,355,559 15,181,251 4.52 99.00 2006 3,237,141 14,452,184 4.46 92.00 2007 2,988,735 12,414,715 4.15 96.00 2008 3,207,307 15,488,332 4.83 110.00 2009 3,239,704 17,274,674 5.33 11.00 2010 3,286,513 17,946,239 5.46 118.00 In MY 2009, sugar beet yields peaked due to favorable weather conditions and this continued in MY 2010 despite a relative decrease in the amount of sugar in the beet compared to the previous year due to higher night-time temperatures. The average price for ?A? quota 2010 harvested beets with a sugar polarity of 16% was 0.118 TL/kg, and the price for C quota beets was specified at 0.070 TL/kg. Centrifugal Sugar Production and Prices The weighted average sales prices for beet sugar as determined by the companies since the enforcement of the Sugar Law in MY 2002/2003 are given below. BEET SUGAR PRICES (Crystal and Cube average) Marketing Years Beet Sugar Price (TL/Kg) Change (%) 2002/03 1.26 - 2003/04 1.43 13.49 2004/05 1.56 9.09 2005/06 1.45 -7.05 2006/07 1.51 4.14 2007/08 1.62 7.28 2008/09 1.72 6.17 2009/10 1.78 3.49 Granulated sugar sold in 50 kg bags is sold for 92.50 TL and 20kg bags of cubed sugar is sold for 47.50 TL. These prices are wholesale prices, including the value added tax, from the Konya Stock Exchange in March 2011. Starch Based Sugar (SBS) The total production capacity of the 6 plants belonging to the 5 private SBS companies that are allocated a quota is approximately 1 MMT/year. Apart from these, there are 3 other companies that are not allocated quotas and produce sugar based starch for export purposes only. These have a total SBS production capacity of 146,000 MT/year. SBS production and sales figures since MY 2002/03 are given in the table below. SBS PRODUCTION AND SALES (THOUSAND MT) 2002/ 2003/ 2004/ 2005/ 2006/ 2007/ 2008/ 2009/ 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Total Producti 394 366 433 415 440 411 418 515 on Domesti c Sales SB 353 347 360 350 350 316 333 406 (A S Quota) Export Sales 33 19 61 72 88 99 83 112 (C Sugar) Prices Starch based sugar prices (weighted average) since MY 2002/2003, when the Sugar Law first came into effect, are given below. SBS PRICES (TL/KG) Marketing Years Starch Based Sugar Change % 2002/03 0.78 - 2003/04 0.91 16.67 2004/05 0.97 6.59 2005/06 0.93 -4.12 2006/07 0.94 1.08 2007/08 1.03 9.57 2008/09 1.15 11.65 2009/10 1.17 1.74 Raw Material (Corn) Production and Prices The ?Raw Material and Sugar Prices Decree? requires the use of domestically grown corn for the production of domestic SBS. The Turkish Grain Board?s (TMO) corn purchasing prices between 2002 and 2010 are given below together with the total volume of domestic corn production. In 2006 and 2007, TMO did not purchase corn. Therefore the prices specified for those years are market prices. CORN PURCHASING PRICES AND PRODUCTION Years TMO Purchasing Prices (TL/Kg) Total Turkish Production (Thousand MT) 2002 0.22 2,100 2003 0.31 2,800 2004 0.33 3,000 2005 0.26 4,200 2006 0.40* 3,811 2007 0.45* 3,535 2008 0.43 4,274 2009 0.45 4,250 2010 0.49 4,200 Resource: TMO (www.tmo.gov.tr., TÜ?K (www.tuik.gov.tr) * Market prices In MY 2009/2010 all the corn required for domestic SBS production was supplied from local growers. In CY 2010, 909,000 MT of corn was used by SBS producers including export volumes. These SBS producers also produce starch, and the amount of corn listed includes both export SBS and starch. Ethanol and Molasses The Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EPDK) published a draft communiqué that obligates the mixture of 3% bio-ethanol into oil sold in Turkey starting from January 1, 2012. Since 2006, distributors have had the option of mixing up to 2% bio-ethanol into oil. This has been voluntary, and those who use 2% bio-fuel have benefited from a 2% exemption from Special Consumption Tax. EPDK data show that 2,187,892 MT oil was consumed in Turkey in 2009. Based on this figure, if 2% bio-ethanol were to be mixed into all the marketed oil, 43,757 MT (55,388 m3) bio-ethanol would be used. If this rate is increased to 3%, 65,137 MT (82,452 m3) of bio-ethanol would be replacing oil. Currently sugar beets are the main source of bio-ethanol production, followed by corn and wheat. The Konya Sugar Company of PANKOBIRLIK built the first ethanol plant in Cumra. This is the biggest ethanol factory in Turkey that uses sugar beets as a raw material. Ethanol production in this plant started at the end of 2007 with a capacity to process 800,000 MT of sugar beets annually. In MY 2010 (May 1, 2010 ? April 30, 2011), it produced 9,100 m3 bio-ethanol and 81,685 MT of molasses, and is targeting to produce 12,000 m3 of ethanol and 75,000 MT of molasses in MY 2011. There are four bio-ethanol plants in Turkey. Name of Plant/Company Raw Material Used Production Capacity (annual) Konya ?eker ? Cumra Plant Sugar beet syrup and molasses 84,000 m3 Tezkim Agr. Chem. Corn and wheat 30,000 m3 Tarkim Agr. Chem Corn and wheat 18,000 m3 Turk Seker - Eskisehir Plant Sugar beet molasses 12,000 m3 Turkish molasses production is estimated to use around four percent of the total beet production, which is used in animal feed, and in the production of alcohol and yeast. The price of molasses varies from USD 150 to USD 200 per MT, depending on where it is produced and sold. For example, in MY 2010 the price of molasses has been USD 152/MT in the Konya region. Consumption: Industry sources estimate consumption of sugar at 2.6 million metric tons, well above the amount of sugar produced. With a population of 72.5 million (75% of which is urban), an estimated 38-kilograms-per-person use rate and a population growth rate of 1.3%, total Turkish sugar consumption is increasing. Despite the efforts of the sector and of the government to eliminate sugar smuggling, still some out-of-quota sugar is sourced illegally from across Turkey's southern border. According to Turkish law, the maximum amount of sugar a "passenger" or "tourist" can bring across the border is 75 kilograms; but some "passengers" cross the border several times a day, bringing 75 kilograms each time. This adds up to an estimated 200,000 tons per year and is supplemented by sizeable smuggling operations from countries on Turkey's southern border, most notably Syria. During the winter of 2010 there were reports on a certain news channel that high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) causes a variety of diseases. Because the reports were limited to just one media agency, public concerns quickly diminished after an initial negative reaction. The credibility of reports was further compromised by the fact that each story included a call for a decrease in the SBS quota, leading to the impression that the reports were planted by the sugar beet industry as an attempt to increase their own share of the quota. Trade: The state-owned Turkish Sugar Corporation and private producers, wholesalers and retailers handle the marketing of sugar. The confectionary sector in Turkey is historically based on the production of Traditional Turkish products such as Turkish delight and halva. The advantage of having a self-sufficient sugar production industry combined with recent modernization and technological improvements in the sector led to a significant increase in exports of confectionary products ? exports of sugar and chocolate confectionary products reached a total of US$ 585 million in 2009. US$ 328.6 million of this was from chocolate products and US$ 256.4 million was from other confectionary sweets. Iraq is the leading importer of confectionary sweets (10.7%) followed by the United States (8.8%) and the UK (7.4%). There are 17,300 food facilities in Turkey with a total food production capacity of 186 MMT. Of this total, 14 MMT or 7.5 % belongs to the sugar products sector. 14% of all registered workers in the Turkish food production industry are employed in the sugar products sector. Turkey?s total food and beverage exports are US$ 5.9 billion, mainly to Africa, the Turkic Republics, and the EU. US$628 million or 10% of these exports are from the sugar products sector. In MY 2010, a total of 88,500 MT starch based sugar has been exported, 38,000 MT of which has been in the form of crystal fructose. Turkey is the world?s fifth largest beet sugar producer, ranking behind France, Germany, the United States, and Russia. With a population approaching 75 million, Turkey is also a significant consumer. Azerbaijan used to be the main export destination, but in MY 2010 exports to Iraq skyrocketed to 47,000 MT. World market prices for sugar are much lower than local prices due to the difference in production costs between cane sugar and beet sugar; therefore in order to protect the sector, an import tax of 135% is being applied since 2004. Despite the yearly fluctuations, registered sugar imports are negligible (approximately 4 thousand metric tons) and are limited to specialty sugar that is not domestically produced (medical, laboratory use, etc.). As discussed above, smuggling brings in additional sugar. Registered beet sugar and SBS imports for the past decade are given below. SUGAR IMPORTS (Thousand MT) Years Beet Sugar Starch Based Sugar 2000 2. 4 8.2 2001 0.6 12.7 2002 1. 2 23. 6 2003 0.7 51. 7 2004 0.6 35.0 2005 3.9 38.5 2006 7.4 30.6 2007 4.2 11.6 2008 4.3 21.6 2009 4.3 8.2 2010 4.2 8.8 Source: TÜ?K Export Trade Matrix Time Period Sept 2009 - Aug 2010 Sept 2010 - Feb 2011 Exports to: United States 20 US 12 Azerbaijan 5205 Azerbaijan 1984 Iraq 46997 Iraq 28695 Pakistan 150 Kosovo 33 Israel 20 Israel 20 Turkish Rep.of N.Cyprus 1474 Turkish Rep.of N.Cyprus 129 Lebanon 127 Lebanon 65 Australia 12 Australia 31 Others not listed 190 Others not listed 652 Grand Total 54195 Grand Total 31621 Import Trade Matrix Time Period Sept 2009 - Aug 2010 Sept 2010 - Feb 2011 Imports from: United States 0 United States 0 United Kingdom 3821 United Kingdom 1742 Germany 189 Germany 89 France 200 France 508 UAE 50 Guatemala 24 Iraq 55 Iraq 26 Others not listed 0 Others not listed 0 Grand Total 4315 Grand Total 2388 Source: Global Trade Atlas Stocks: There are no official data on stocks, and industry estimates vary greatly. Beginning stocks for MY 2011 are estimated to be 587,000 MT and ending stocks are estimated to be 417,000 MT. Due to decreased production quotas and the increase in exports to Middle East countries, the post forecasts stocks to decrease to 257,000 MT for the end of MY 2012. Any remaining stocks at the end of a marketing year mostly belong to Turkiye Seker Fabrikalari A.S and are kept at the factory silos, as the private companies usually try to sell everything they produce. Policy: Privatization In 2004 and 2005, three government-owned sugar refineries - Kutahya, Adapazari and Aksaray plants were privatized by the Turkish government. The government-run Turkish Sugar Corporation (TSC) still operates 25 refineries. Three of these (Ilgin, Bor, Eregli) had been previously turned over to the Privatization Administration (PA) to be privatized, but the privatization of these refineries was postponed in May 2006, then again in June 2006, and finally cancelled in November 2006. In December 2007, privatization efforts restarted and all the remaining government refineries were transferred to the Privatization Administration. However, privatization efforts were halted in August 2008 when the Council of State Administrative Litigation Office stopped the PA?s efforts to privatize the same 3 plants (Ilgin, Bor, Eregli). The Council of State?s reason was that in principle, privatization efforts should have been carried out using bids for groups of factory (portfolios), whereas the PA tried to privatize the Ankara Sugar Factory on its own, against the privatization strategy. In 2008 the Privatization Administration released a list of factory portfolios for bidding: Portfolio A: Kars, Erci?, A?r?, Mu? and Erzurum Portfolio B: Elaz??, Malatya, Erzincan and Elbistan Portfolio C: Kastamonu, K?r?ehir, Turhal, Yozgat, Çorum and Çar?amba Portfolio D: Bor, Ere?li and Ilg?n Portfolio E: U?ak, Alpullu, Burdur and Afyon Portfolio F: Eski?ehir and Ankara The portfolios were offered for sale in several tenders through a bidding process between 2008 and 2009. However there were several problems with the process. For example, Portfolio A factories (i.e. in the Eastern part of Turkey) did not get any bids in the allotted period. Industry sources suggest that these low-capacity factories (which had originally been established to generate employment in the lesser-developed region) are too inefficient to generate private sector interest. Also, for Portfolio C companies there was interest and a clear winner in the bidding, but there was a great deal of public opposition and lawsuits about the outcome. Therefore, in late 2009 the Council of State cancelled the results of all bids and put privatization on hold. Turkish sugar beet producers are generally against privatization due to social and economic reasons. One of the main arguments of the anti-privatization group is that once these plants are privatized, only a few profitable refineries will survive and the rest will be shut down, causing a spike in unemployment. This fear was validated by the massive layoffs after transfer of the plants to the Privatization Administration. In December 2007, 650 people (20 percent of the white-collar work force of these companies) were laid off. Instead of privatization, the sector hopes for a change in the beet contracting methods and modernization of public plants. For instance, the government supplies seeds to the producers each year as per their contract, but most growers prefer not to plant these seeds because their quality is not high. Instead they purchase their preferred high quality seeds from private companies, causing a waste of resources in general. Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Sugar Beets T 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 u rkey Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 USDA O N USDA ew Post fficial O N A ew P USDost fficial O New Post fficial Area Planted 350 320 320 (1000 HA) Area Harvested 324 300 300 (1000 HA) Production 17,500 14,000 14,000 (1000 MT) Total Supply 17,500 14,000 14,000 (1000 MT) Utilization for Sugar 17,500 14,000 14,000 (1000 MT) Utilization for Alcohol 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Total Distribution 17,500 14,000 14,000 (1000 MT) TS=TD 0 0 0 Comments Sugar, Centrifugal 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Turkey Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Sep 2009 Sep 2010 Sep 2011 USDA New USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post Official P ost Beginning Stocks 505 505 501 587 422 (1000 MT) Beet Sugar Production 2,531 2,531 2,400 2,275 2,280 (1000 MT) Cane Sugar Production 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Total Sugar Production 2,531 2,531 2,400 2,275 2,280 (1000 MT) Raw Imports 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Refined Imp.(Raw Val) 5 5 5 5 5 (1000 MT) Total Imports 5 5 5 5 5 (1000 MT) Total Supply 3,041 3,041 2,906 2,867 2,707 (1000 MT) Raw Exports 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Refined Exp.(Raw Val) 40 54 40 45 40 (1000 MT) Total Exports 40 54 40 50 45 (1000 MT) Human Dom. Consumption 2,500 2,400 2,800 2,400 2,400 (1000 MT) Other Disappearance 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Total Use 2,500 2,400 2,800 2,400 2,400 (1000 MT) Ending Stocks 501 587 66 417 257 (1000 MT) Total Distribution 3,041 3,041 2,906 2,867 2,707 (1000 MT) TS=TD 0 0 0 Comments AGR Number Comments To Post
Posted: 11 May 2011, last updated 12 May 2011

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