Tree Nuts Annual - 2012

An Expert's View about Tree and Bush Fruits and Nuts in Turkey

Posted on: 30 Sep 2012

Post expects MY 2012 production to increase for all tree nuts as the weather conditions were favorable and it was an on-year.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 9/21/2012 GAIN Report Number: Turkey Tree Nuts Annual Tree Nuts Annual - 2012 Approved By: Jess K. Paulson, Agricultural Attaché Prepared By: Yasemin Erkut, Agricultural Specialist Report Highlights: Post expects MY 2012 production to increase for all tree nuts as the weather conditions were favorable and it was an on-year. Hazelnut production, in particular, is bouncing back from MY 2011 and is estimated to increase by 65 percent at 710,000 MT. Post also expects hazelnut and pistachio exports to increase in MY 2012. Almond and walnut imports will be steady at about the same level as MY 2011, 19,000 MT and 50,000 MT respectively. Executive Summary: MY 2012 was a great year for tree nuts. Weather conditions were favorable for all tree nuts and for the production of hazelnuts in particular. Hazelnuts had an “on-year”, returning production levels to a long-term average of 710,000 MT in MY 2012 (up from 430,000 MT in MY 2011). Pistachio production is predicted to increase significantly and reach MY 2010 levels at 125,000 MT in MY 2012. Walnut and almond production is also expected to increase slightly, 85,000 MT and to 17,500 MT respectively. This was mostly due to the cyclical nature of walnut and almond production. Post expects higher production to increase hazelnut and pistachios exports in MY 2012. Hazelnut exports are estimated to be 500,000 MT in MY 2012, which is a 25 percent increase over the previous year. Pistachio exports are also predicted to increase about 70 percent over MY 2011 and reach 1,200 MT. Almond and walnut imports will remain steady at MY 2011 levels. Commodities: Almonds, Shelled Basis Filberts, Inshell Basis Pistachios, Inshell Basis Walnuts, Inshell Basis Production: HAZELNUT Turkey is the world’s leading hazelnut producer, accounting for about 70 percent of world supply. Although hazelnuts have been grown in more than 48 provinces around Turkey, production is primarily concentrated along Turkey’s Black Sea coast. Hazelnut yields heavily depend on weather conditions between December and May. A warm December and colder subsequent months shocked and stressed hazelnut trees in MY2011, reducing the yields in major production areas. The result was a substantial production loss of 25 percent to 430,000 MT. The weather conditions were very favorable in MY 2012. This led to a very good crop and production is estimated at 710,000 MT, up 65 percent from MY 2011. This increase is also due to the seasonality of hazelnuts and the current marketing year is an “on-year”. Although this increase represents a 65 percent increase over the previous year, it brings production back to a long-term trend The production has been recorded to be lower than average in the past three marketing years, mostly due to unfavorable weather conditions. MY 2012 can be regarded a bounce-back year for Turkish hazelnut crop. The Black Sea region is divided into three distinct growing areas: (1) the hilly region from Ordu to Trabzon, centered around Giresun, which in a normal year produces about 55 percent of the crop, (2) the flatter, mixed farming region west of Ordu to Samsun, which produces about 15 percent of the crop, and (3) the area west of Samsun, which produces the remaining 30 percent. Hazelnuts require relatively little effort to cultivate and inputs are low. Turkish hazelnuts usually ripen between early and late August depending on the altitude of the orchard and climatic conditions. Hazelnuts are hand-picked from the trees and dried in the sun. Harvesting takes place during several weeks in August and September. Due to high temperatures in MY 2012, hazelnut harvest at lower altitudes (0-250 m) began at the end of July (one week earlier than normal) , at the first week of august at mid altitudes (250-500 m), and finally began in the second week of August at higher altitudes (above 500 m). There are two organizations who do official hazelnut production forecast; one is the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock (MINFAL) and the other is the National Hazelnut Council. MINFAL officers forecast hazelnut production based on field trips and actual counting. The National Hazelnut Council also relies on the field trips of their staff and collection of current market information. PISTACHIO Post predicts a very good year for all tree nuts, including pistachios, in MY 2012. MY 2011 was a very bad year for pistachio producers. In addition to being an “off-year”, the weather conditions were not favorable, therefore production dropped to 50,000 MT. However, in MY 2012 it is predicted to increase significantly and reach MY 2010 levels. Pistachio production is estimated to be 125,000 MT in MY 2012. There are three major regions where pistachio grown in Turkey; Gaziantep, Sanliurfa and Siirt. Gaziantep and Sanliurfa pistachio varieties are similar but Siirt has a different variety of pistachios. In a normal year, the Gaziantep region produces 40,000-45,000 MT, the Sanliurfa region produces 35,000-45,000 MT, and the Siirt region produces 10,000-15,000 MT. With the increasing number of new sapling plantings in the Sanliurfa and Siirt regions, high quality pistachio production is predicted to increase in the near future. Producers and researchers predict that, as a result of better variety selection, the problem of “cycling” will diminish in the future. Most Turkish pistachios are the Gaziantep type - thinner and smaller than Iranian-type pistachios. Siirt pistachios, about 15 percent of the total production, are somewhere between Gaziantep and Iranian pistachios. The Siirt type yields are not only higher but fluctuate less than the Gaziantep type. In Turkey, quality is directly related to size; 90 nuts or fewer per 100 grams is considered first grade, 90-100 nuts are second grade, 100-120 nuts are third grade, and more than 120 nuts are fourth grade. ALMOND Almonds were considered a minor crop and were not cultivated commercially in Turkey until recently. There are several rural development projects to increase almond production but commercial investment for almond orchards is very limited. Although some almonds are grown in most parts of the country, commercial production is concentrated in the Aegean, Marmara, and Mediterranean Regions. MY 2012 is also predicted to be a good year for almonds. The production is expected to increase about 9 percent compared to the previous year and reach 17,500 MT in MY2012. In MY 2011, the production was 16,000 MT despite bad weather conditions. There is no special organization for almond producers. Establishing almond orchards has become popular in Turkey. Some big companies have begun investing in almond orchards in Turkey. TUKSIAD (Turkey Dried Fruits and Nuts Traders and Businessman Association) is actively promoting almond orchard establishments in Turkey. They established a demonstration orchard in Denizli province. Due to the efforts of the government and private sector, the area of almond orchards increased significantly in Denizli and Mugla provinces. WALNUT Post does not expect weather conditions to have a strong influence on MY 2012 walnut production, which is estimated to increase by only 6 percent and reach 85,000 MT. This increase is also due to MY2012 being an “on-year”. Walnut production has been increasing gradually due to improved varieties and the slowly increasing number of orchards. As demand has risen and prices become favorable, walnut production has been increasing with a growing number of orchards and better varieties. There are festivals around Turkey to promote walnut production and consumption. These include the Bitlis Province Adilcevaz Walnut Festival, the Kirsehir Province Kaman Walnut Festival, the Tokat Province Niksar Walnut Festival and the Giresun Province Sebinkarahisar Walnut Festival. Walnuts grow throughout the country and increased demand and good prices have encouraged walnut cultivation in recent years. Major producing provinces are Karaman, Kastamonu, Hakkari, Bursa and Tokat. The major problem for walnut producers in Turkey is low yields. There is great need for improved varieties. Yalova Horticulture Research Institute, which is located in Yalova in the Marmara Region, is Turkey’s leading walnut research facility and developer of new varieties. Commercial production of the improved varieties developed by the institute has begun in Balikesir, Denizli, Bursa and Kahramanmaras provinces. Until 1970 walnuts had been propagated only by seeds and therefore until the last decade it was very difficult to find established orchards of standard cultivars. However, the importance of propagation by grafting and budding is now understood and as a result orchards established of standard cultivars are becoming increasingly widespread. Almost all walnut trees in Turkey are grown without the use of pesticides and chemical fertilizers. This explains why, in recent years in some areas, organic walnut production has become popular. Consumption: HAZELNUT Domestic consumption of hazelnuts, as well as other tree nuts, depends on prices and supply in a given year. In both MY 2010 and MY2011 the domestic hazelnut consumption was lower than usual and this was mostly due to high exports. Domestic consumption in MY 2011 was 282,000 MT. PISTACHIO Pistachios are widely eaten as a snack food and used in the production of confectionary products, especially in deserts and bakery products. As a result of high production, domestic consumption of pistachios is predicted to increase and be 98,000 MT in MY2012. WALNUT Walnut consumption has increased significantly in recent years. Per capita consumption, which was estimated earlier as 1.5 kilograms/year, is now estimated to be almost 2 kilograms. Consumption has increased due to perceived health benefits and the availability of inexpensive imported walnuts. Walnuts are commonly used in dessert production. Also, Turks make special products known as pestil and köme by combining walnuts with mulberries and grapes. Walnuts are also used in ice cream and halva production, and in the dried fruit industry. The leaves and green shells are used as a pigment in Turkey. Trade: HAZELNUT Hazelnut exports in MY 2011 were reduced by lower production levels. In MY2011, hazelnut exports were 400,000 MT, roughly a 6 percent increase from 375,000 MT in MY 2010. As a result of greater production in MY 2012, hazelnut exports are estimated to increase about 25 percent and reach 500,000 MT. EU countries continued to be the major destination for Turkish hazelnut exports. Italy, Germany and France are still the top three destinations. Hazelnuts are competitive with almonds in EU chocolate manufacturing. Due to efforts of the Hazelnut Promotion Group and the National Hazelnut Council, Asian and Middle Eastern countries began showing interest in Turkish hazelnuts in MY 2010. The Chinese market is still negligible; however, it is steadily increasing over the years. PISTACHIO The EU countries continued to be the major export destinations for Turkish pistachios in MY 2011. Pistachio exports decreased about 30 percent in MY 2011 mostly due to low production level. It is however expected to increase in MY2012. Pistachio exports are predicted to pick up significantly in MY 2012 and reach 1200 MT. The Pistachio Promotion Council targets Germany, Italy, England, Spain and Russia to increase pistachio sales. Due to limited resources, the Pistachio Promotion Council has not been as active as the Hazelnut Promotion Council. ALMOND Turkey is an importer of almonds and the United States is the major almond supplier to Turkish market. Due to the higher quality and better prices, there is high demand to import almonds. Marketing has the potential to increase almond imports further in the future. In MY 2011, almond imports were 16,000 MT. Almond imports are predicted to increase slightly in MY 2012 and reach 19,000 MT. US exporters should not only target Turkey but also should target Middle East countries through Turkish marketing channels. Exporters should consider opportunities through inward processing regimes and re- exporting. Turkey primarily imports in-shell almonds and exports shelled almonds. There are many claims of illegal almond shipments entering through Turkey’s eastern border. Almonds, walnuts and pistachios are believed to enter Turkey illegally. At the moment it is very difficult to guess the amount of illegal tree nuts entering Turkey. WALNUT The walnut processing industry has grown in recent years. Imports of both in-shell and shelled walnuts and the export of shelled walnuts have increased substantially. However, Turkey remains a net importer of walnuts. Walnut imports remained stable in MY 2012, compared to the previous years. MY2011 imports increased slightly compared to MY 2010. MY 2012 imports are estimated to be the same as MY 2011 and are expected to be 50,000 MT. Stocks: HAZELNUT The Turkish Grain Board (TMO) continued to utilize stocks in MY 2011 to compensate for reduced production. TMO ceased in-shell hazelnut sales as of July 2, 2012. The remaining stocks, which are predicted to be about 50,000 MT in MY2012, are likely to be used for hazelnut oil production. PISTACHIO Pistachio stocks vary considerably from year to year in line with their cyclical production. In MY 2010, stocks were recorded to be 52,000 MT. As a result of low production in MY 2011, the stocks were drawn down to 19,500 MT in MY 2011. Since the MY 2012 yield is expected to be high, the stocks are predicted to go up to 60,000 MT. Policy: HAZELNUT Hazelnut strategies and policies did not change significantly or unexpectedly in MY 2011. According to the National hazelnut strategy, which was published in the official gazette dated July 15, 2009, licensed hazelnut producers received a 1500 TL/ha (roughly $830/ha) income support in 2010, 2011 and 2012. This support is expected to increase to 1700 TL/ha ($945/ha) in MY 2012. The decision is pending approval from Council of Ministers. (Average Exchange rate: USD 1= 1.81 TL) PISTACHIO The government stopped giving direct supports to pistachio farmers several years ago, and since 2004, GUNEYDOGUBIRLIK has not announced any procurement prices for pistachios. There is, however, a government support of 300 TL/ha ($166/ha) for the establishment of new orchards that are planted with certified seedlings. There are no subsidies, taxes or other restrictions on pistachio exports but pistachio imports to Turkey are not allowed at any time of the year. There has been evidence that Iranian pistachios enter Turkey and are exported as Turkish labeled product. Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Filberts, Inshell Basis Turkey 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Jul 2010 Market Year Begin: Jul 2011 Market Year Begin: Jul 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 0 0 0 0 0 Area Harvested 0 0 0 0 0 Bearing Trees 0 340,000 0 340,000 340,000 Non-Bearing Trees 0 17,000 0 17,000 17,000 Total Trees 0 357,000 0 357,000 357,000 Beginning Stocks 425,000 425,000 350,000 350,000 100,000 Production 570,000 570,000 400,000 430,000 710,000 Imports 2,400 2,400 2,500 2,000 1,000 Total Supply 997,400 997,400 752,500 782,000 811,000 Exports 375,000 375,000 350,000 400,000 500,000 Domestic Consumption 272,400 272,400 250,000 282,000 261,000 Ending Stocks 350,000 350,000 152,500 100,000 50,000 Total Distribution 997,400 997,400 752,500 782,000 811,000 HA, 1000 TREES, MT Pistachios, Inshell Basis Turkey 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Aug 2010 Market Year Begin: Aug 2011 Market Year Begin: Aug 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 0 0 0 0 0 Area Harvested 0 0 0 0 Bearing Trees 0 29,000 0 29,000 29,000 Non-Bearing Trees 0 14,000 0 14,000 14,000 Total Trees 0 43,000 0 43,000 43,000 Beginning Stocks 23,170 23,170 52,195 52,195 19,520 Production 110,000 110,000 50,000 50,000 125,000 Imports 25 25 25 25 0 Total Supply 133,195 133,195 102,220 102,220 144,520 Exports 1,000 1,000 700 700 1,200 Domestic Consumption 80,000 80,000 77,000 82,000 93,320 Ending Stocks 52,195 52,195 24,520 19,520 50,000 Total Distribution 133,195 133,195 102,220 102,220 144,520 HA, 1000 TREES, MT Almonds, Shelled Basis Turkey 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Aug 2010 Market Year Begin: Aug 2011 Market Year Begin: Aug 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 0 0 0 0 0 Area Harvested 0 0 0 0 0 Bearing Trees 0 3,500 0 3,600 3,600 Non-Bearing Trees 0 900 0 900 900 Total Trees 0 4,400 0 4,500 4,500 Beginning Stocks 2,300 2,300 300 300 300 Production 14,000 14,000 16,000 16,000 17,500 Imports 16,400 16,400 18,000 18,000 19,000 Total Supply 32,700 32,700 34,300 34,300 36,800 Exports 5,400 5,400 6,000 6,000 6,000 Domestic Consumption 27,000 27,000 28,000 28,000 30,300 Ending Stocks 300 300 300 300 500 Total Distribution 32,700 32,700 34,300 34,300 36,800 HA, 1000 TREES, MT Walnuts, Inshell Basis Turkey 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Aug 2010 Market Year Begin: Aug 2011 Market Year Begin: Aug 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted 0 0 0 0 0 Area Harvested 0 0 0 0 0 Bearing Trees 0 5,000 0 5,000 5,000 Non-Bearing Trees 0 2,700 0 2,700 2,700 Total Trees 0 7,700 0 7,700 7,700 Beginning Stocks 5,046 5,046 3,046 3,046 5,046 Production 85,000 85,000 80,000 80,000 85,000 Imports 49,000 49,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 Total Supply 139,046 139,046 133,046 133,046 140,046 Exports 7,000 7,000 8,000 8,000 7,000 Domestic Consumption 129,000 129,000 120,000 120,000 128,046 Ending Stocks 3,046 3,046 5,046 5,046 5,000 Total Distribution 139,046 139,046 133,046 133,046 140,046 HA, 1000 TREES, MT
Posted: 30 September 2012

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