Oilseeds and Products Update

An Expert's View about Cereals, Leguminous Crops, Oil Seeds in Turkey

Last updated: 29 Jul 2011

MY 2010 imports of soybeans are expected to remain at about 1.2 MMT, significantly less than last year’s imports of 1.6 MMT due to a large carryover.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 7/6/2011 Turkey Oilseeds and Products Update Turkey Oilseed Update July 2011 Approved By: Rachel Nelson Prepared By: Ibrahim Sirtioglu Report Highlights: MY 2010 imports of soybeans are expected to remain at about 1.2 MMT, significantly less than last year?s imports of 1.6 MMT due to a large carryover. Soybean meal imports are increasing, and 2011 imports are expected to reach 450,000 MT. Soy oil consumption and imports were lower than expected due to the price advantage of competing oils and because the Biosafety Law currently limits utilization options. Production of cottonseed and products is projected to increase. Post: Ankara Executive Summary: MY 2010 imports of soybeans are expected to remain at about 1.2 MMT, significantly less than last year?s imports of 1.6 MMT due to a large carryover. Total imports during the first nine months of MY 2010 were 845,000 MT, of which 404,000 MT were from the United States. Soybean meal imports are increasing, and 2011 imports are expected to reach 450,000 MT. Production increases in the poultry and egg sector were the main reasons for the rise in demand for soy. Soy oil consumption and imports were lower than expected due to the price advantage of competing oils and a because the Biosafety Law currently limits utilization options, as imports of biotech soy have been approved for feed use for not for food or industrial uses. Production of cottonseed and products is projected to increase due to increased cotton planting in MY 2011. Production MY 2011 Turkish soybean area is expected to be about 15,000 hectares and production is expected to be about and 50,000 MT, which is less than last year due to increased cotton and corn planting in the region. The majority of soybeans are still planted in the Cukurova region despite the efforts of the GOT to increase planting in other areas. Soybean meal and oil production has been adversely affected by the recent Biosafety Law that approved use of biotech products for feed only and not for industrial or food use. Crushing of imported biotech soybeans has almost stopped, because the by-products such as soy oil can?t be used for paint and other industrial products, which damaged crushing margins. Production of cottonseed and products is projected to increase due to an increase in cotton planting in MY 2011. Consumption Domestic consumption of soybean as full fat soya and soy meal continued to increase during MY 2010. Increases in local poultry meat and egg production were the main reasons for local soy product consumption. The high cost of local corn, due to low local production and import restrictions on biotech corn, also persuaded millers to utilize a higher percentage of full fat soybeans along with feed wheat in poultry rations. The Turkish broiler industry had grown about thirteen percent in 2010, with total production of poultry meat reaching 1.5 MMT. Another ten percent production increase is forecasted for 2011 due to increased domestic poultry consumption in reaction to very high local red meat prices and increased exports. In 2011 the layer industry is also expected to grow, but to a lesser degree than the broiler industry, due to increased exports to neighboring countries. Turkish poultry meat and egg consumption increased in recent years reaching 19 kg and 175 pieces per person, respectively, in 2010. Both industries continue to export to the Iraqi market, which provides additional cash flow during the seasonal fluctuation in the domestic market. Consumption of soy products in the aquaculture industry also increased, also contributing to higher overall soy consumption. Consumption of locally produced soy oil is declining due to biotech use limitations. Members of the crushing industry have been lobbying government officials to allow use of biotech soy oil in industrial products such as paint, soap and lubricants. Trade According to available information, soybean imports during the first nine months of MY 2010 were 845,003 MT, of which about forty-eight percent was from the United States. Other leading suppliers in this period were Ukraine (138,631 MT), Brazil (136,165 MT), Paraguay (97,376 MT) and Uruguay (31,429 MT). Marketing year-end imports are expected to remain at about 1.2 MMT due to the large stock carry over. This was a result of stockpiling due to the uncertainties caused by the new bio-safety law that became effective on September 27, 2010. Soybean meal imports during the first seven months of MY 2010 remained around 222,158 MT but total marketing year end imports are expected to reach 450,000 MT, which is higher than early season projections. The United States is the leading supplier to Turkey despite a decline in market share, with sales reaching 75,097 MT. Other suppliers are India (57,757 MT), Argentina (36,208 MT) and Switzerland (4,058 MT). Low profit-margins for soybean meal imports caused importers to seek source EU soy meal which enjoys a zero percent import tax compared to 13 percent for meal from other sources. Accordingly, Turkey imported a total of 47,493 MT of soy meal from EU sources. Germany (22,938 MT), Spain (15,374 MT), Romania (7,276 MT) and Bulgaria (1,905 MT) were the suppliers. Uncertainties regarding biotech soybean and product imports during the time of GSM-102 announcement caused soybean and soybean product purchases under the program to decline during FY 2011, but historically the program had been an important factor for sales of U.S. soybeans and products to Turkey. Turkish soybean oil imports during the first seven months of MY 2010 were only 2,958 MT, of which 1,013 MT were U.S. origin and 1,945 MT were Israeli origin. Marketing year end imports are expected to remain at 8,000 MT. High world soy oil prices, competition from other oils such as palm and canola, and reduced local bio-diesel production due to high consumption taxes were the reasons for the decline. Production, Supply and Demand Tables Soybean 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Turkey Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Sept 2009 Sept 2010 S ept 2011 USDA New USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post Official P ost Area Planted 12 12 12 17 12 15 (1000 HA) Area Harvested 12 12 17 17 15 15 (1000 HA) Beginning Stocks 136 136 617 494 223 400 (1000 MT) Production 40 40 60 60 50 50 (1000 MT) MY Imports 1,860 1,648 1,100 1,200 1,400 1,300 (1000 MT) MY Imp. from U.S. 870 806 400 450 500 600 (1000 MT) MY Imp. from EU 0 14 0 50 0 50 (1000 MT) Total Supply 2,036 1,824 1,777 1,754 1,673 1,750 (1000 MT) MY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) MY Exp. to EU 0 460 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Crush 520 460 620 350 640 500 (1000 MT) Food Use Dom. Cons. 25 10 25 4 25 5 (1000 MT) Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 874 860 909 1,000 800 950 (1000 MT) Total Dom. Cons. 1,419 1,330 1,554 1,354 1,465 1,455 (1000 MT) Ending Stocks 617 494 223 400 208 295 (1000 MT) Total Distribution 2,036 1,824 1,777 1,754 1,673 1,750 (1000 MT) CY Imports 1,800 974 1,280 1,756 1,400 1,500 (1000 MT) CY Imp. from U.S. 870 660 400 792 500 500 (1000 MT) CY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) TS=TD 0 0 0 Oil Soybean T 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 urkey Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Nov Market Year Begin: N ov 2009 2010 Nov 2011 USDA New USDA O N USDA New ew Post fficial Post Official Official P ost Crush 520 460 620 350 640 500 (1000 MT) Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0. 0.1804 0. 0.18 0. 0.18 (PERCENT) Beginning Stocks 1 1 5 5 13 20 (1000 MT) Production 93 83 110 63 114 90 (1000 MT) MY Imports 9 9 10 5 10 8 (1000 MT) MY Imp. from U.S. 1 0 0 1 0 2 (1000 MT) MY Imp. from EU 1 1 1 1 1 2 (1000 MT) Total Supply 103 93 125 73 137 118 (1000 MT) MY Exports 3 3 7 5 10 7 (1000 MT) MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Industrial Dom. Cons. 21 20 23 0 25 25 (1000 MT) Food Use Dom. Cons. 53 30 60 0 65 0 (1000 MT) Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 21 35 22 48 22 71 (1000 MT) Total Dom. Cons. 95 85 105 48 112 96 (1000 MT) Ending Stocks 5 5 13 20 15 15 (1000 MT) Total Distribution 103 93 125 73 137 118 (1000 MT) CY Imports 10 10 10 10 10 8 (1000 MT) CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 1 (1000 MT) CY Exports 3 3 4 4 0 5 (1000 MT) CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) TS=TD 0 0 0 Meal Soybean T 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 urkey Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Market Year Nov 2009 Nov 2010 Begin: Nov 2011 USDA New USDA New USDA New O fficial Post Official Post Official Post Crush 520 460 620 350 640 500 (1000 MT) Extr. Rate, 999.9999 1. 0.8 1. 0.8 1. 0.8 (PERCENT) Beginning Stocks 26 26 117 100 140 125 (1000 MT) Production 415 368 495 280 511 400 (1000 MT) MY Imports 413 343 400 450 350 400 (1000 MT) MY Imp. from U.S. 130 114 100 100 120 130 (1000 MT) MY Imp. from EU 3 48 3 60 0 75 (1000 MT) Total Supply 854 737 1,012 830 1,001 925 (1000 MT) MY Exports 7 7 7 5 10 7 (1000 MT) MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 730 630 865 700 862 770 (1000 MT) Total Dom. Cons. 730 630 865 700 862 770 (1000 MT) Ending Stocks 117 100 140 125 129 148 (1000 MT) Total Distribution 854 737 1,012 830 1,001 925 (1000 MT) CY Imports 385 352 350 408 350 450 (1000 MT) CY Imp. from U.S. 150 222 125 115 120 100 (1000 MT) CY Exports 5 3 5 7 5 7 (1000 MT) CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) SME 730 630 865 700 862 770 (1000 MT) TS=TD 0 0 0 Cottonseed T 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 urkey Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Oct 2009 Oct 2010 O ct 2011 USDA New USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post Official P ost Area Planted (Cotton) (1000 HA) Area Harvested (Cotton) 280 280 320 320 410 450 (1000 HA) Seed to Lint Ratio 0 0 0 0 0 0 (RATIO) Beginning Stocks 2 2 2 2 3 2 (1000 MT) Production 600 570 670 690 860 950 (1000 MT) MY Imports 0 0 10 0 0 0 (1000 MT) MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Total Supply 602 572 682 692 863 952 (1000 MT) MY Exports 4 0 4 0 3 0 (1000 MT) MY Exp. to EU 3 0 3 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Crush 586 560 645 680 835 940 (1000 MT) Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 10 10 30 10 20 10 (1000 MT) Total Dom. Cons. 596 570 675 690 855 950 (1000 MT) Ending Stocks 2 2 3 2 5 2 (1000 MT) Total Distribution 602 572 682 692 863 952 (1000 MT) CY Imports 10 4 5 0 0 0 (1000 MT) CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) CY Exports 4 0 4 0 0 0 (1000 MT) CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) TS=TD 0 0 0 Oil Cottonseed 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Turkey Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: O ct 2009 Oct 2010 May 2011 USDA New USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post Official P ost Crush 586 560 645 680 835 940 (1000 MT) Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0. 0.1696 0. 0.1691 0. 0.1702 (PERCENT) Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Production 98 95 108 115 140 160 (1000 MT) MY Imports 5 5 5 0 2 2 (1000 MT) MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Total Supply 103 100 113 115 142 162 (1000 MT) MY Exports 2 2 1 2 5 2 (1000 MT) MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 1 0 0 (1000 MT) Industrial Dom. Cons. 25 25 25 25 25 25 (1000 MT) Food Use Dom. Cons. 76 73 87 88 112 135 (1000 MT) Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Total Dom. Cons. 101 98 112 113 137 160 (1000 MT) Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Total Distribution 103 100 113 115 142 162 (1000 MT) CY Imports 4 8 5 5 3 2 (1000 MT) CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) CY Exports 1 2 1 2 5 2 (1000 MT) CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) TS=TD 0 0 0 Meal Cottonseed T 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 urkey Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Market Year Begin: Oct 2009 Oct 2010 O ct 2011 USDA New USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post Official P ost Crush 586 560 645 680 835 940 (1000 MT) Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0. 0.5714 0. 0.5735 0. 0.5745 (PERCENT) Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Production 262 320 289 390 374 540 (1000 MT) MY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) MY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) MY Imp. from EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Total Supply 262 320 289 390 374 540 (1000 MT) MY Exports 1 1 5 5 10 5 (1000 MT) MY Exp. to EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 261 319 284 385 364 535 (1000 MT) Total Dom. Cons. 261 319 284 385 364 535 (1000 MT) Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) Total Distribution 262 320 289 390 374 540 (1000 MT) CY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) CY Exports 5 5 10 5 0 5 (1000 MT) CY Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1000 MT) SME 211 258 230 312 295 434 (1000 MT) TS=TD 0 0 0
Posted: 28 July 2011, last updated 29 July 2011

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