Cotton and Products Update

An Expert's View about Cotton in Turkey

Posted on: 10 Sep 2012

The MY 2012 Turkish cotton crop is now projected at 400,000 hectares and 600,000 MT (2.7 million bales).

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: GAIN Report Number: Turkey Cotton and Products Update Cotton and Products Update Approved By: Jess Paulson, Agriculture Attaché Prepared By: Ibrahim Sirtioglu, Agriculture Marketing Specialist Report Highlights: The MY 2012 Turkish cotton crop is now projected at 400,000 hectares and 600,000 MT (2.7 million bales). High local temperatures, frequent electricity cuts and repeated insect attacks in the GAP region had adverse affects on yields. High domestic production in MY 2011 caused imports to decline to 465,000 MT (2.1million bales), down about thirty-two percent, during the first eleven months compared to a year ago. US exports were about 196,000 MT (0.9 million bales) during the same period. Availability of GSM-102 Credit Guarantee Program played an important role in U.S. exports to Turkey. Total registration reached US $156 million during FY 2012. Post: Commodities: Ankara Cotton Production High temperatures and frequent electricity cuts of irrigation has adversely affected the local cotton crop in the Southeast Anatolian region. Additionally, unlike last year, some bug damage was also reported in the Southeastern region. Accordingly, MY 2012 area and production are now estimated at about 400,000 hectares and 600,000 MT. Available information on planting area and production for MY 2011 indicate higher planting and yield, therefore total production for the year is now estimated at 490,000 hectares and 750,000 MT (3.4 million bales). Consumption MY 2011 domestic cotton consumption is expected to be 1.23 MMT (5.6 million bales). Despite all the bleak economic developments around the world, Turkish textile and garment exporters managed to increase exports in both categories during MY 2011 until the month of June. Higher cotton prices and production costs in China helped Turkish textile exporters to compete against Chinese products in the international markets and prevented declines in textile exports. Experts indicate that economic problems in the main Turkish textile export market, the EU, and political problems in neighboring countries will eventually have an adverse affects on exports and the domestic economy. MY 2012 cotton consumption is now projected to remain about 1.2 MMT (5.5 million bales). The sudden price increases in March 2010 and following drops in the world cotton prices hurt Turkish mills and encouraged them to utilize their own stocks and the abundance of local cotton. This caused local gins and farmers to hold on to their stocks rather than sell to textile mills, creating pressure on local prices. Trade Turkey’s imports of cotton During the first eleven months of MY 2011 Turkey imported 465,292MT (2.1 Million bales), which is a thirty-four percent decline compared to the same period last marketing year and is due to high local production. Although the US was the leading supplier with 195,889 MT (0.9 Million bales) its market share declined from the usual sixty percent to forty-two percent. Rapid fluctuations in the global cotton price during the last two seasons have caused millers to prefer small orders from domestic sources, or from sources near-by, such as Greece. Marketing year-end imports are expected to remain at about 520,000 MT (2.3 million bales) compared to 730,000 MT (3.3Mmillion bales) last year. Cotton imports are expected to increase in MY 2012 to about 620,000 MT (2.8 million bales) due to a projected decrease in domestic production. During MY 2011 USA, Greece and the CIS countries were the traditional suppliers, but Brazil, Argentina and Australia are emerging as new cotton suppliers for Turkey. GSM-102 credit guarantee program continues to play a critical role in US cotton sales to Turkey. During FY 2012 Turkish cotton importers registered US $156 million worth of US cotton under the program, which represents about twenty-four percent of Turkey’s total use of GSM-102 for the financial year. Turkish cotton exports during the same period were about 35,000 MT, up significantly compared to the last few years due to attractive local prices. 22,000 MT of this cotton went to the Mersin Free Trade Zone, which means that some of this cotton may be imported back in to the country. Turkey also exported about 27,000 MT of cotton for medical use in the same period. PSD Table Country: Turkey Commodity: Cotton (HECTARES)(MT) 2010 Revised 2011 Estimate 2012 Forecast USDA Post USDA Post USDA Post Official Estimate Official Estimate Official Estimate [Old] [New] [Old] [New] [Old] [New] August August August Market Year Begin 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted 320,000 320,000 480,000 490,000 400,000 400,000 Area Harvested 320,000 320,000 480,000 490,000 400,000 400,000 Beginning Stocks 254,068 254,068 214,909 214,909 219,909 219,909 Production 460,000 460,000 710,000 750,000 630,000 600,000 Imports 729,428 729,428 480,000 520,000 600,000 620,000 MY Imp. from U.S. 476,925 476,925 320,000 230,000 350,000 370,000 TOTAL SUPPLY 1,443,496 1,443,496 1,404,909 1,484,909 1,449,909 1,439,909 Exports 8,587 8,587 35,000 35,000 30,000 30,000 USE Dom. Consumption 1,220,000 1,220,000 1,150,000 1,230,000 1,200,000 1,200,000 Loss Dom. Consumption 0 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL Dom. Consumption 1,220,000 1,220,000 1,150,000 1,230,000 1,200,000 1,200,000 Ending Stocks 214,909 214,909 219,909 219,909 219,909 209,909 TOTAL DISTRIBUTION 1,443,496 1,443,496 1,404,909 1,484,909 1,449,909 1,439,909 PSD Table (bales 1000) Cotton T 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 urkey Market Year Begin: Aug Market Year Begin: Aug Market Year Begin: Aug 2010 2011 2012 USDA New USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post Official Post Area Planted 0 o 0 0 0 0 Area Harvested 320 320 480 490 400 400 Beginning Stocks 1,928 1,166 1,722 985 1,752 1,009 Production 2,110 2,111 3,250 3,443 2,750 2,755 Imports 3,350 3,348 2,300 2,387 3,000 2,845 MY Imports from U.S. 0 2,189 0 1,056 0 1,700 Total Supply 7,388 6,625 7,272 6,815 7,502 6,609 Exports 146 40 300 160 200 137 Use 5,600 5,600 5,300 5,646 5,600 5,508 Loss -80 0 -80 0 -80 0 Total Dom. Cons. 5,520 5,600 5,220 5,646 5,520 5,508 Ending Stocks 1,722 985 1,752 1,009 1,782 964 Total Distribution 7,388 6,625 7,272 6,815 7,502 6,609 Stock to Use % 30 17 31 17 31 17 Yield 1,436 1,436 1,474 1,530 1,497 1,500 Trade Matrix Turkey: Cotton (MT) August/July MY 2010 MY 2011 U.S. 476,925 195,889 Greece 87,365 80,706 Turkmenistan 51,250 23,176 India 11,135 6,049 Uzbekistan 16,672 6,916 Syria 1,988 0 Brazil 27,851 72,889 Egypt 5,209 4,547 Argentina 6,186 10,661 Burkina Faso 3,610 0 Tajikistan 21,088 11,461 Australia 0 8,458 Mersin FTZ 0 5,585 Total of Others 232,354 230,448 Others not listed 20,149 38,955 Grand Total 729,428 465,292 Turkey: Cotton (Bales) August/July MY 2010 MY 2011 U.S. 2,147,776 899,130 Greece 401,005 370,441 Turkmenistan 235,238 106,378 India 51,110 27,765 Uzbekistan 76,524 31,744 Syria 9,125 0 Brazil 127,836 334,561 Egypt 23,909 20,871 Argentina 28,394 48,934 Burkina Faso 16,570 0 Tajikistan 96,794 52,606 Australia 0 38,822 Mersin FTZ 0 25,635 Total of Others 1,066,505 1,057,757 Others not listed 92,484 178,803 Grand Total 3,348,074 2,135,690
Posted: 10 September 2012

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