Grain and Feed Annual

An Expert's View about Crops and Support Services in Ukraine

Posted on: 13 May 2012

Corn production in Ukraine is forecast to reach a record high for the second year in a row.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 5/2/2012 GAIN Report Number: UP1214 Ukraine Grain and Feed Annual Annual Approved By: Randall Hager Prepared By: Yuliya Dubinyuk, Agricultural Specialist Report Highlights: Corn production in Ukraine is forecast to reach a record high for the second year in a row. Marketing Year 2012/13 corn production is projected at 23 Million Metric Tons. This will result in high exports of corn as well as a possible drop in domestic market prices due to high beginning stocks and abundant supply. Wheat and barley production are projected to decrease significantly as a result of unfavorable fall planting conditions and winter kill. Lower exports of wheat and barley are anticipated as a result in the next season in Ukraine. GAIN Report – UP1214 – Grain and Feed Annual Page 2 of 26 Executive Summary: Marketing Year 2012/13 may well be called the year of corn in Ukraine. This crop has been gaining popularity in the country in the last several years and is now expected to produce another record of about 23 Million Metric Tons (MMT), compared to 22 MMT a year prior. This increase in production of corn is mostly attributed to the need to replant large areas of lost or damaged wheat and barley due to winter kill or dry weather, and to some favorable market conditions that were created for corn sales both domestically in Ukraine and globally. Wheat and barley production in MY 2012/13 is projected to decline, by about 40 percent and roughly 20 percent, respectively, mainly due to unusually high winter kill and anticipated lower than average yields. Wheat and barley fall plantings were affected by dryness. Up to 1.2 million hectares (Mln ha) of all winter plantings (about 12 percent) were considered by the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine (MinAg) to not have even emerged in the fall of 2011. The majority of the rest of the winter crops did not develop strong plants to enter into the winter season. In addition, already weaker than usual plants were subjected to extensive periods of very low temperatures. A mixture of factors like weak and underdeveloped plants and a lack of or inadequate snow cover in some cases resulted in dramatic spring field pictures. In Southern and Eastern Ukraine experts estimated up to 60 percent winter barley loses. Rye production continues on the general downward trend and is also expected to be affected by winter crop losses. Grain trade in MY 2012/13 is expected to favor corn because of high beginning stocks and high projected production. Bio-ethanol production is once again up for consideration in the GOU and may well pass the first reading at the Rada (Parliament) if corn production keeps its pace and the investment in bio- ethanol production industry becomes available for Ukraine. Commodities: Wheat Production: In 2012 wheat production is expected to decrease drastically compared to the previous year’s production. In 2011, wheat production in Ukraine was reported at 22.3 Million Metric Tons (MMT), and area harvested at 6,657,000 Hectares (ha). However, FAS-Kyiv expects no more than 13.2 MMT wheat produced from the summer 2012 crop. The low harvest is anticipated as a result of significant losses in winter grain areas due to unfavorable weather conditions both in the fall and during the winter season. Winter wheat yields are anticipated to be below the 6-year average. UNCLASSIFIED USDA Foreign Agricultural Service GAIN Report – UP1214 – Grain and Feed Annual Page 3 of 26 Extremely dry fall conditions in 2011 did not allow most producers to plant winter crops on time. Some farmers reported planting in the dry soil on the hopes of ‘savior’ rain, while others did not plant until later in the fall. In Eastern, Central and Southern (main winter crop growing areas in Ukraine) regions, there were reports of no rain for about two consecutive months, which is quite unusual for this region. Some crops that were planted did not emerge until late November or early December, when the first rains appeared. And about 1.1-1.2 Million ha of winter crops failed to emerge at all in fall according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine (MinAg). As a result of the unfavorable weather conditions in the fall 2011, majority of winter crops in Ukraine went into the winter season in weaker than usual condition. In addition, continuous periods of very low temperatures, that in some areas were reaching the critical levels for winter crops, resulted in significant winter kill. Even though in winter, Ukraine received a lot of snow, in Eastern and especially in Southern regions, strong winds were recorded that blew away the protective snow cover. According to specialists of Ukrainian Meteorological Center (Hidrometcenter), in some regions winter wheat losses may reach up to 40 percent while in other areas this number was estimated at close to ten percent. On the other hand, spring weather conditions at the time of this report writing are quite favorable for winter crop to resume vegetation and regain some of its strength. Spring in Ukraine started later than usual by about two weeks. The beginning of spring was characterized by cool temperatures, cloudy skies, and rains that were replenishing the top-soil moisture and allowing the crops to develop good secondary roots. Also, some winter plans that emerged very late started developing tillers only in spring after they resumed vegetation (which usually means this wheat would not produce much). Due to the continuous cool temperatures in early spring some crops had a chance to go through the process of vernalization in the spring and may be expected to produce some wheat but with below average yields. Due to the fact that wheat production is not the most profitable of all crops grown in Ukraine, the majority of the winter area that observed crop losses is expected to be replanted with such spring crops as corn, barley, soybeans, and sunflower. Consumption: Decreased wheat production in MY 2012/13 will impact domestic consumption as well as trade. However, Ukraine is anticipated to have large wheat ending stocks in the current season (MY 2011/12). This will allow some ease for the domestic market. Both domestic milling and feed wheat prices are expected to start increasing as the harvest progresses and production proves to be low. Production of wheat flour in Ukraine in July – December 2012 was five percent lower compared to the same period in 2011. Relatively low trade volumes for the time of the year, unattractive domestic wheat prices, and uncertainty over the grain export situation resulted in farmers that were not eager to sell on the hopes for a more favorable market. However, wheat flour production in January and February 2012 rebounded and reached nine percent above the previous year’s level but stayed well below the average for the four previous years. Bread producers have been struggling to break even for the last two years when domestic wheat prices increased and stayed at relatively higher levels regardless of a near record wheat crop in the current season. Thus, production of bread as well as bread products in general has been on the decline in Ukraine in the recent years. UNCLASSIFIED USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Wheat Flour Production by Large Enterprises in Ukraine (1000 MT) 300 Production of Bread and Bread Products in Ukraine (1000 MT) 250 180 200 160 140 150 120 100 100 50 8 60 0 GAIN Report – UP1214 – Grain and Feed Annual Page 4 of 26 40 20 MY 2007/08 MY 2008/09 MY 2009/10 MY 2010/11 MY 2011/12 0 Source: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine MY 2007/08 MY 2008/09 MY 2009/10 MY 2010/11 MY 2011/12 Source: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine Trade: UNCLASSIFIED USDA Foreign Agricultural Service GAIN Report – UP1214 – Grain and Feed Annual Page 5 of 26 Exports Exports of wheat from Ukraine have been unusually slow this season considering the large production. The Government Policy in the current season had a great influence on the domestic wheat market. Exports of wheat in MY 2011/12 are not expected to exceed five MMT. Export tariffs that were in effect in Ukraine from the start of the current season until October 2011 made trade unattractive for most Ukrainian exporters. According to official data, wheat exports from July 2011 to April 2012 totaled 3.8 MMT. As a result, record stocks of wheat are expected to be held in Ukraine at the end of the MY 2011/12 and thus influence the domestic and export prices at the start of the season. Exports in the new season – MY 2012/13 – are not expected to be any better than in the current MY due to anticipated low production. The largest buyers of Ukrainian wheat in the current season, as of February 2012, were Spain and Egypt. In the last MY, Egypt and Turkey bought the largest share of Ukrainian wheat leaving Bangladesh and South Korea behind. (For details see Statistical Tables in the end of this report) Imports Wheat imports for MY 2012/13 are likely to remain low due to record high beginning stocks. Stocks: For MY 2012/13 Ukraine is expected to hold record high beginning stocks, as the previous season’s production was quite high. In addition, unfavorable export situation in the beginning to MY 2011/12 and negative news about winter crop conditions slowed down trade. As a result, producers were hesitant to sell and thus accumulated large stocks. Information on monthly stocks held by farmers, elevators and processors is provided below. UNCLASSIFIED USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Wheat Stocks Held by Producers, Elevators and Processors in Thous. tons Ukraine (1000 MT) 18000.0 16000.0 14000.0 12000.0 10000.0 8000.0 6000.0 4000.0 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 W M arket Year B egin: Jul 2010 M arket Year B egin: Jul 2011 M arket Year B egin: Jul 2012heat, 2000.0 U Revised Estimate Forecastkra ine 0 USD A USD A USD A .0 N ew P o st N ew P o st N ew P o st Off icial Off icial Off icial GA Are H rvested 6,284 6,284 6,700 6,657 5,000IN Report – UP1214 – Grain and Feed Annual Page 6 of 26 Beginning Stocks 2,358 2,358 3,340 3,438 5,800 Production 16,844 16,845 22,000 22,324 13,200 MY Imports 40 1 100 1 1 Producers (Large and Mid-size Farms) Elevators Processors TY Imports 40 1 100 1 1 TY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 Source: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine Total Supply 19,242 19,204 25,440 25,763 19,001 MY Exports 4,302 4,166 5,000 5,000 5,000 Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: TY Exports 4,302 4,166 5,000 5,000 5,000 Table 1. USDA Official and FAS-Kyiv Forecast Production Supply and Demand Statistics Feed and Residual 2,800 2,800 4,590 6,113 3,001 FSI Consumption 8,800 8,800 8,850 8,850 8,500 Total Consumption 11,600 11,600 13,440 14,963 11,501 Ending Stocks 3,340 3,438 7,000 5,800 2,500 Total Distribution 19,242 19,204 25,440 25,763 19,001 Yield 2.68 2.68 3.28 3.35 2.64 UNCLASSIFIED USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Ja n- 10 Feb- 10 M a r - 10 Apr - 10 May- 10 Jun- 10 Jul - 10 Aug - 10 Se p- 10 O c t- 10 Nov- 10 D ec - 10 Ja n- 11 Feb- 11 M a r - 11 Apr - 11 May- 11 Jun- 11 Jul - 11 Aug - 11 Se p- 11 O c t- 11 Nov- 11 D ec - 11 Ja n- 12 Feb- 12 M a r - 12 Apr - 12 GAIN Report – UP1214 – Grain and Feed Annual Page 7 of 26 Commodities: Barley Production: Barley production is forecast to decrease significantly compared to the previous year. Winter barley planted area, which accounts for about one-third of average barley plantings in Ukraine, was significantly reduced due to high winter kill rates which, according to the data from Hidrometcenter, reached up to 60 percent in some regions. Spring barley plantings are expected to increase compared to the previous year but total area would remain close to the last years. We anticipate barley production to keep declining. Barley yields are expected to be below 6-year average due to unfavorable fall planting and winter conditions for the crop development. Usually, spring barley yields are much lower than that of the winter crop. The overall barley production in the new season will decline due to the following factors: 1. Significant winter kill 2. Lower average yields for barley because spring barley will prevail in overall production. 3. More planting area is likely to be dedicated to more profitable crops like corn, soybeans, sorghum, and sunflower. 4. Government Policy in the recent years made barley unattractive for farmers who are export oriented. Consumption: Barley consumption in MY 2012/13 is expected to remain at the level of the current season due to limited supply. Even though compound feed production has been on the rise, it is mostly attributed to the use of corn for pork and poultry production. Trade: In MY 2012/13, barley exports are expected to decrease to 2.5 MMT, compared to 2.8 MMT projected by FAS-Kyiv for MY 2011/12. The following factors are expected to influence barley exports in the coming season: 1. Domestic barley prices are anticipated to remain on average on higher levels due to projected low production and consequently tight supply 2. Low profitability of barley in the new season due higher production expenses and large winter kill 3. Tight supplies Saudi Arabia is expected to remain the largest buyer for Ukrainian barley in the current and in the following season with a market share of over 50 percent. In general, Middle East buyers have been favoring Ukraine for their barley purchases due to availability of the crop and close proximity, and thus low shipping costs. In MY 2011/12 exports of barley at the beginning of the season were greatly influenced by an export duty that remained in effect until January 2012. For more information on this issue, please refer to FAS-Kyiv’s market updates in GAIN. UNCLASSIFIED USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Barley Stocks Held by Producers, Elevators and Processors in Thous. tons Ukraine (1000 MT) 4500.0 4000.0 3500.0 3000.0 2500.0 2000.0 1500.0 1000.0 500.0 GAIN Report – UP1214 – Grain and Feed Annual Page 8 of 26 0.0 Stocks: Barley stocks remained high through the current season due to slow trade and on the expectation of significant winter crop damage. According to the official data barley stocks held by farms and elevators and processors were about 1.7 MMT, which is about 30 percent above the same period last year. Producers (Large and Mid-size Farms) Elevators Processors Source: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine UNCLASSIFIED USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Ja n- 10 Fe b- 10 Mar - 10 Apr - 10 M a y- 10 Jun- 10 Jul - 10 Aug - 10 Sep- 10 O c t- 10 Nov- 10 D e c - 10 Ja n- 11 Fe b- 11 M a r - 11 Apr - 11 M a y- 11 Jun- 11 Jul - 11 Aug - 11 Sep- 11 O c t- 11 Nov- 11 D e c - 11 Ja n- 12 Fe b- 12 M a r - 12 Apr - 12 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 M arket Year B egin: Jul 2010 M arket Year B egin: Jul 2011 M arket Year B egin: Jul 2012 Barley Uk raine R e v i s e d Estimate Forecast USD A USD A USD A N ew P o st N ew P o st N ew P o st Off icial Off icial Off icial Area Harvested 4,317 4,317 3,700 3,684 3,600 Beginning Stocks 1,067 1,067 794 650 1,371 Production 8,484 8,484 9,000 9,098 7,500 MY Imports 37 23 5 23 30 TY Imports 47 35 5 35 30 TY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 9,588 9,574 9,799 9,771 8,901 GAIN Report – UP1214 – Grain and Feed Annual Page 9 of 26 MY Exports 2,794 2,794 3,100 2,800 2,500 Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Table 2.Y USDA OfEficial anxd FASp-Kyiv Forecasrt Prtodsuction Su pp ly and D em an d S tat isti cs 2,446 2,445 3,400 2,300 2,500 Feed and Residual 4,400 4,530 3,400 4,000 4,000 FSI Consumption 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 Total Consumption 6,000 6,130 5,000 5,600 5,600 Ending Stocks 794 650 1,699 1,371 801 Total Distribution 9,588 9,574 9,799 9,771 8,901 Yield 1.97 1.97 2.43 2.47 2.08 Commodities: Corn Production: Production of corn in Ukraine in MY 2012/13 is anticipated to reach another record high. Corn planting area has been expanding in Ukraine in the recent years and is projected to go over four million hectares in MY 2012/13. Corn yields have also been improving, which resulted in a dramatic increase in production. Within just five years, Ukraine more than tripled its corn production increasing in from an average of 6.8 MMT in 2002-2007 to above 22 MMT in MY 2011/12 (see chart below). There are a number of factors that resulted in such outcome: 1. Increasing domestic demand for corn as an input for a growing domestic poultry production Change in the weather patterns in Ukraine in the last years that made corn growing more attractive and less risky compared to other agricultural crops traditionally grown in Ukraine 2. Attractiveness of the crop due to its higher profitability compared to other crops, especially considering the fact that corn is an exportable crop that is in demand on the global market UNCLASSIFIED USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Ukraine: Corn Production and Exports Statistics, MMT MT 1,000,000 MT 25 7.0 6.4 6.0 5.4 20 5.0 4.7 4.5 5.0 4.3 3 3.9.9 3.7 15 3.5 3 4.0.5 3.0 10 2.0 5 1.0 0 0.0 GAIN Report – UP1214 – Grain and Feed Annual Page 10 of 26 Domestic Use Exports Yield (MT) * - FAS-Kyiv estimates Source: State Statistics Committee, State Customs Committee 3. Minimal to no domestic corn price regulations enacted by the GOU, while wheat and barley domestic prices as well as exports have traditionally been strictly monitored and influenced by official policy 4. Promotion of corn growing by MinAg 5. Availability of better quality seeds in the recent years as well as the advancements in agricultural technology In spring 2012, corn plantings in Ukraine will depend on planting seed availability. In recent years Ukraine depended on up to 60 percent imported seeds. However, the trend may be changing as more and more domestic seed producers are beginning to show good results. In addition, larger agricultural producers started producing their own hybrids in dedicated test fields. Some industry experts believe that planting seeds produced domestically are more suitable for specific climate conditions, develop better disease resistance, and can compete well with imported hybrids and varieties. Nonetheless domestic corn seed producers have quite a way to go to monopolize the Ukrainian market. Statistics on corn seed imports are shown in tables in the end of this report. Consumption: Corn use in MY 2011/12 increased dramatically from the prior year in part due to higher losses. Corn consumption in MY 2012/13 is projected to drop compared to the previous marketing year in part because producers will be better prepared for the large crop. But domestic corn use for feed as well as industrial use will actually increase somewhat when compared to the previous season. UNCLASSIFIED USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Compound Feed Production in Ukraine (1000 MT) 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 GAIN Report – UP1214 – Grain and Feed Annual Page 11 of 26 Feed corn demand has been on the rise in Ukraine and is expected to remain high in the coming season when domestic wheat and barley 0prices may go up due to low crop and tighter domestic supplies. Even though wheat and barley were traditionally widely used for feed purposes in Ukraine the poultry producers have found great benefits of including higher percentage of corn in feed mixes. In addition, swine and milk producers are starting to use more corn in animal diets. Compound feed production in Ukraine in the last several years can be described as being on an upward trend. A slow but steady increase in feed production can be observed as domestic poultry production had established and is still expected to grow. Hog production is on the rise, tool. MY 2007/08 MY 2008/09 MY 2009/10 MY 2010/11 MY 2011/12 Source: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine Another possible use of corn in Ukraine in the coming season may be ethanol production for industrial use. The Policy section of this report discusses draft legislation that was recently reviewed by the GOU in regard to ethanol mixing in fuel. However, this industry has not developed yet and it may take some time for this type of corn use in Ukraine to demand a significant portion of the produced crop. Trade: Corn exports in MY 2012/13 are expected to reach an all time high of 14.5 MMT. Ukraine has been increasing its exports of corn in the recent years and has become a significant global market player. Egypt, Iran, Israel, Syria and Spain have become the largest buyers of Ukrainian corn. (See statistical tables in the end of this report for details). These buyers are expected to remain quite active in the coming season. In addition, Ukraine is expected to reach out to the destinations in the East and some in North Africa. With abundant supplies of corn and high stocks from the current season, the country needs to secure large contracts and establish new marketing channels to realize its export potential until domestic consumption picks up. UNCLASSIFIED USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Corn Stocks Held by Producers, Elevators and Processors in Thous. tons Ukraine (1000 MT) 14,000.0 12,000.0 10,000.0 8,000.0 6,000.0 4,000.0 2,000.0 GAIN Report – UP1214 – Grain and Feed Annual Page 12 of 26 0.0 Corn imports comprise an insignificant portion of domestic supply and are for the most part corn planting seeds. (See data in the statistical tables in the end of the report). Stocks: Large production and slow exports of corn in MY 2011/12 will result in significant ending stocks in the current season. However, next year’s situation may not be different as Ukraine still needs to secure large corn export markets and overcome technical export difficulties that were created in the domestic market. Producers (Large and Mid-size Farms) Elevators Processors Source: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine New storage capacity has been constructed in the last few years and is continuing to be expanded to allow storage of larger quantities of grain for extended periods of time. Storage security and preservation of adequate crop quality have been an issue in Ukraine in the past. So, larger producers as well as trade companies have recently started investing in building large private grain and oilseed storage complexes. Some are located in close proximity to exporting ports in Ukraine. And some were built in-land close to the main production areas of the owners. UNCLASSIFIED USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Ja n- 10 Fe b- 10 M a r - 10 Apr - 10 May- 10 Jun- 10 Jul - 10 Aug - 10 Sep- 10 O c t- 10 Nov- 10 D ec - 10 Ja n- 11 Fe b- 11 M a r - 11 Apr - 11 M a y- 11 Jun- 11 Jul - 11 Aug - 11 Sep- 11 O c t- 11 Nov- 11 D ec - 11 Ja n- 12 Fe b- 12 M a r - 12 Apr - 12 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 M arket Year B egin: Jul 2010 M arket Year B egin: Jul 2011 M arket Year B egin: Jul 2012 Corn U Revised Estimate Forecastkra ine USD A USD A USD A N ew P o st N ew P o st N ew P o st Off icial Off icial Off icial Area Harvested 2,648 2,648 3,500 3,544 4,300 Beginning Stocks 672 672 1,071 1,100 1,183 Production 11,919 11,919 22,500 22,838 23,000 MY Imports 38 43 25 45 45 TY Imports 38 43 25 45 45 TY Imp. from U.S. 1 4 0 5 2 Total Supply 12,629 12,634 23,596 23,983 24,228 GAIN RepoMrt – UP121Y4 – Grain and Feed Annual Page 13 of 26 Exports 5,008 5,067 14,000 14,000 14,500 Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: TY Exports 5,008 5,067 14,000 14,000 14,500 Table 3. USDA Official and FAS-Kyiv Forecast Production Supply and Demand Statistics Feed and Residual 5,800 5,367 7,500 7,500 6,500 FSI Consumption 750 1,100 750 1,300 1,800 Total Consumption 6,550 6,467 8,250 8,800 8,300 Ending Stocks 1,071 1,100 1,346 1,183 1,428 Total Distribution 12,629 12,634 23,596 23,983 24,228 Yield 4.5 4.5 6.43 6.44 5.35 Commodities: Rye Production: Rye production area has been declining and dropped to the half of that planted in the 1990’s in Ukraine. Rye area remained steady in the last few years and is expected to stay low due to the decrease in domestic consumption of rye bread products and weak export demand. Consumption: Overall consumption of rye in Ukraine is expected to decrease in MY 2012/13 just as it is projected to go down in MY 2011/12. Stocks: Rye stocks would have to be used for domestic consumption due to tight supplies and possible production losses due to winter crop damage. UNCLASSIFIED USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Rye Stocks Held by Producers, Elevators and Processors in Thous. tons Ukraine (1000 MT) 800.00 700.00 600.00 500.00 400.00 300.00 200.00 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 M arket Year B egin: Jul 2010 M arket Year B egin: Jul 2011 M arket Year B egin: Jul 2012 Rye 100.00 U Revised Estimate Forecastkra ine USD A USD A USD A N ew P o st N ew P o st N ew P o st 0.00 Off icial Off icial Off icial Area Harvested 279 279 285 278 300 GAIN Report – UP1214 – Grain and Feed Annual Page 14 of 26 Beginning Stocks 411 411 189 174 110 Production 464 465 550 579 500 MY Imports 2 2 0 2 2 TY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 Producers (Large and Mid-size Farms) Elevators Processors TY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 877 878 739 755 612 Source: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine MY Exports 38 38 5 15 5 Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: TTYable 4. USEDA Offixcial apnd FASo-Kyiv Froretcast Pro duc tio n Sup ply an d Dem an d Sta tis tics 2 2 5 15 5 Feed and Residual 50 50 50 50 50 FSI Consumption 600 616 550 580 477 Total Consumption 650 666 600 630 527 Ending Stocks 189 174 134 110 80 Total Distribution 877 878 739 755 612 Yield 1.66 1.67 1.93 2.08 1.67 UNCLASSIFIED USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Ja n- 10 Feb- 10 M a r - 10 Apr - 10 May- 10 Jun- 10 Jul - 10 Aug - 10 Se p- 10 O c t- 10 Nov- 10 D ec - 10 Ja n- 11 Feb- 11 M a r - 11 Apr - 11 M a y- 11 Jun- 11 Jul - 11 Aug - 11 Se p- 11 O c t- 11 Nov- 11 D ec - 11 Ja n- 12 Feb- 12 M a r - 12 Apr - 12 GAIN Report – UP1214 – Grain and Feed Annual Page 15 of 26 Author Defined: Policy for All Grains Agricultural policy has seen quite a few changes in the last two seasons: grain export quotas, grain export tariffs, administrative reform, changes in export procedures, and grain export and import certification requirements, to name a few. All these factors made exports to some extent unpredictable. The uncertainty that was created in the domestic market has greatly impacted grain prices and export activity in Ukraine. For Marketing Year 2012/13, considering the fact that wheat bread and wheat products are staple food for a Ukrainian household, the State is always concerned with bread prices as it affects the majority of the population of the country. In addition, in the light of the upcoming parliamentary election in the fall 2012, the GOU will continue monitoring wheat production and trade very closely. In MY 2011/12, the GOU introduced grain export tariffs starting July 2011 that were later lifted to allow Ukrainian trade to export more grain as the silos were filling in with large crop while the world market prices were becoming unattractive for Ukrainian exporters. Originally, export tariffs were set as follows: Barley 14% but not less than 23.00 EUR Corn 12% but not less than 20.00 EUR Wheat 9% but not less than 17.00 EUR By instituting these export duties the GOU aimed to regain some cash flow for the State Budget of Ukraine and to prevent some losses of tax revenue. These export tariffs, originally signed to be in effect from July 1, 2011 to January 1, 2012, significantly slowed down export pace in the beginning of the trade season in Ukraine. The July- October time frame in Ukraine is traditionally the most active time for both producers and the trade in terms of grain acquisition and exports. In 2011, when exports as well as domestic trade volumes did not come even near the usual levels, this raised a big concern of whether Ukraine would be able to recover grain production expenses and regain its global market positions after a year of grain export quotas and restrained domestic prices. However, the industry and others were able to influence the GOU to cancel corn and wheat export tariffs by October 2011 and trade slowly resumed. Barley export tariffs were left in place until its official expiration date in January 2012. The Agrarian Fund was active to some extent on the domestic market as well as in the export sector. The State Reserve’s purchasing agent obtained favorable market conditions to make some good grain acquisitions. In addition, there are some issues with release of funds to the producers who signed forward purchase contracts with the Agrarian Fund for the crop of summer 2012. Another policy change affected planting seeds market. Beginning in the fall 2011 State Customs Service started requiring GMO test results for every single shipment of planting seed. International seed importers were subjected to unexpected changes in the procedures that resulted in a UNCLASSIFIED USDA Foreign Agricultural Service GAIN Report – UP1214 – Grain and Feed Annual Page 16 of 26 significant increase in input prices as well as creating some uneasiness among the domestic consumers who were concerned with obtaining good quality seeds at adequate prices in time for planting. The GMO testing is administered by Ukrainian designated testing labs and is still in effect at the time of this report. The GOU announced in the past its desire to stimulate the domestic seed producers. However, the above mentioned measures did not create much of an incentive but rather created some confusion in the industry as to the transparency and clarity of the GOU actions. In spring 2012, the GOU revived the idea of bio-ethanol production from agricultural crops. Draft legislation that was developed by the previous President’s Administration is now once again considered for adoption. An edited version of the draft legislation was submitted to the Parliament of Ukraine in early April 2012. Corn and sugar beets would be the most probable sources of inputs for bio-ethanol production in Ukraine. This legislation, if it undergoes further consideration, may greatly influence the situation in the domestic market by increasing the demand for corn and sugar beets while leaving smaller volumes of these crops for export. However, bio-ethanol production facilities would have to become available for this effect to take place. In addition, fuel industry would have to undergo some adjustments prior to the change to take full charge. Several years would have to pass after such legislation is signed in Ukraine for the effects to be fully understood. UNCLASSIFIED USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Wheat Export Statistics by Month and Destination, Ukraine, 1000 MT (HS Code 1001) Destination Jul.2011 Aug.2011 Sept.2011 Oct.2011 Nov.2011 Dec.2011 Jan.2012 Feb.2012 Subtotal World 139.5 570.5 834.6 142.8 473.2 351.4 366.6 388.3 3,267.0 Spain 50.9 319.2 226.7 0.0 14.5 77.7 116.8 89.3 895.0 Egypt 0.0 26.0 114.8 50.4 1.9 27.4 62.4 158.0 440.9 Israel 39.5 39.3 54.9 22.6 87.6 50.2 45.8 21.0 360.9 Italy 16.6 56.9 105.2 0.0 0.0 5.5 12.7 43.6 240.5 Saudi Arabia 0.0 71.2 65.3 10.9 67.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 214.4 Tunisia 0.0 6.5 58.0 0.0 40.6 51.2 11.5 0.0 167.8 Jordan 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 49.8 0.0 78.4 25.4 153.6 Bangladesh 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 80.4 37.0 0.0 0.0 118.0 Syria 2.5 7.0 56.0 7.7 0.0 8.8 0.0 30.2 112.2 Turkey 0.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 24.6 26.1 13.2 0.0 71.9 Libya 7.6 5.0 5.1 9.9 19.9 12.0 7.0 3.3 69.8 Thailand 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 34.1 27.0 0.3 1.6 62.9 Netherlands 0.0 0.0 59.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 59.3 Portugal 0.0 23.3 35.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 58.7 Lebanon 0.0 0.0 6.1 0.0 0.0 21.2 7.7 6.8 41.7 Morocco 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 38.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 38.3 Kenya 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.5 United Arab Emirates 0.0 0.0 30.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.9 Taiwan 0.0 2.1 6.6 2.0 4.8 4.0 0.8 1.6 22.0 Sudan 20.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.3 Malaysia 0.0 1.7 2.7 1.5 5.2 1.9 0.0 1.0 13.9 United Kingdom 0.0 3.1 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 0.0 9.7 Palestine 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4 0.0 6.4 Armenia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2 6.2 Algeria 0.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 Sri Lanka 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 Germany 0.9 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 Indonesia 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 Poland 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 GAIN Report – UP1214 – Grain and Feed Annual Page 17 of 26 Author Defined: Cambodia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.7 Statistical Tables Moldova 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 Belarus 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 Switzerland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 4.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 5.9 Source: State Customs Committee of Ukraine UNCLASSIFIED USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Wheat Exports from Ukraine by Destination, MY, 1000 MT (HS Code 1001) MY 2008/09 M Y 2 0 0 9 / 10 M Y 2 0 1 0 / 1 1 % Change (July 08-June 09) (July 09-June 10) (July 10-June 11) Destination MY 2010/11 to 2009/10 Quantity % Share Quantity % Share Quantity % Share World 12,714.6 100.00 9,157.4 100.00 4,166.2 100.00 - 54.51 Afghanistan 29.8 0.23 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 Albania 5.5 0.04 6.2 0.07 11.2 0.27 82.60 Algeria 118.7 0.93 70.2 0.77 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Armenia 6.3 0.05 0.0 0.00 71.5 1.72 0.00 Austria 24.0 0.19 12.2 0.13 0.1 0.00 - 99.41 Azerbaijan 88.6 0.70 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 Bangladesh 1,125.5 8.85 1,397.9 15.27 287.0 6.89 - 79.47 Belarus 46.7 0.37 5.7 0.06 6.2 0.15 10.34 Belgium 37.0 0.29 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 Bulgaria 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 3.0 0.07 0.00 Chad 0.0 0.00 5.9 0.06 5.9 0.14 0.83 Congo 8.2 0.06 12.3 0.13 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Congo Dem. Rep. 0.0 0.00 8.1 0.09 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Cyprus 5.5 0.04 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 Djibouti 118.0 0.93 102.6 1.12 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Ecuador 24.2 0.19 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 Egypt 1,126.2 8.86 718.0 7.84 626.2 15.03 - 12.79 Estonia 2.1 0.02 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 France 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 6.0 0.14 0.00 Georgia 27.5 0.22 15.0 0.16 253.2 6.08 1584.13 Germany 0.0 0.00 7.6 0.08 23.6 0.57 208.53 Gibraltar 0.0 0.00 0.6 0.01 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Greece 54.2 0.43 0.0 0.00 12.5 0.30 0.00 Hungary 23.0 0.18 36.5 0.40 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 India 0.0 0.00 9.8 0.11 1.1 0.03 - 88.44 Indonesia 59.5 0.47 115.3 1.26 0.5 0.01 - 99.59 Iran 191.8 1.51 269.4 2.94 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Iraq 10.1 0.08 0.0 0.00 7.0 0.17 0.00 Ireland 5.0 0.04 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 Israel 853.0 6.71 508.7 5.56 398.8 9.57 - 21.60 Italy 353.6 2.78 102.1 1.11 93.7 2.25 - 8.19 Japan 9.1 0.07 24.1 0.26 13.0 0.31 - 46.15 Jordan 351.4 2.76 205.0 2.24 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Kazakhstan 0.4 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 Kenya 237.0 1.86 644.4 7.04 181.5 4.36 - 71.84 Korea North 11.2 0.09 22.5 0.25 5.5 0.13 - 75.59 Korea South 1,227.9 9.66 1,280.3 13.98 170.5 4.09 - 86.68 Kyrgyzstan 2.0 0.02 0.1 0.00 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Latvia 17.1 0.13 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 Lebanon 74.6 0.59 105.4 1.15 150.1 3.60 42.34 Libya 218.2 1.72 148.3 1.62 264.7 6.35 78.52 Lithuania 28.2 0.22 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 Malaysia 12.7 0.10 54.8 0.60 1.2 0.03 - 97.73 GAIN Report – UP1214 – Grain and Feed Annual Page 18 of 26 Mauritania 49.3 0.39 34.6 0.38 15.9 0.38 - 54.14 Moldova 0.1 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.2 0.01 404.58 Mongolia 0.7 0.01 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 Morocco 114.4 0.90 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 Myanmar 0.0 0.00 6.5 0.07 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Netherlands 187.3 1.47 33.1 0.36 20.6 0.49 - 37.74 UNCLASSIFIED USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Wheat Exports from Ukraine by Destination, MY, 1000 MT (HS Code 1001) (Continued) MY 2008/09 M Y 2 0 0 9 / 10 M Y 2 0 1 0 / 1 1 % Change (July 08-June 09) (July 09-June 10) (July 10-June 11) Destination MY 2010/11 to 2009/10 Quantity % Share Quantity % Share Quantity % Share New Zealand 0.0 0.00 0.6 0.01 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Nigeria 37.6 0.30 42.2 0.46 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Pakistan 200.5 1.58 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 Palestine 1.8 0.01 4.4 0.05 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Panama 10.2 0.08 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 Philippines 1,133.6 8.92 197.7 2.16 1.3 0.03 - 99.35 Poland 37.2 0.29 0.0 0.00 38.2 0.92 0.00 Portugal 209.7 1.65 0.0 0.00 38.6 0.93 0.00 Russia 3.9 0.03 0.2 0.00 1.3 0.03 718.78 Rwanda 0.0 0.00 3.0 0.03 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Saudi Arabia 67.6 0.53 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 Serbia 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Singapore 1.9 0.02 6.0 0.07 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Somalia 52.6 0.41 22.0 0.24 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 South Africa 0.0 0.00 53.1 0.58 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Spain 2,881.9 22.67 800.8 8.74 237.1 5.69 - 70.39 Sri Lanka 23.3 0.18 31.1 0.34 2.2 0.05 - 92.77 St. Vincent & the Grenadines 1.2 0.01 3.4 0.04 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Sudan 20.9 0.16 97.5 1.07 28.6 0.69 - 70.64 Switzerland 20.3 0.16 46.1 0.50 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Syria 144.5 1.14 301.9 3.30 99.5 2.39 - 67.05 Taiwan 2.5 0.02 25.0 0.27 2.4 0.06 - 90.21 Tajikistan 3.1 0.02 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 Tanzania 0.0 0.00 28.7 0.31 30.0 0.72 4.56 Thailand 20.5 0.16 10.6 0.12 59.2 1.42 458.84 Tunisia 454.9 3.58 757.3 8.27 212.5 5.10 - 71.94 Turkey 193.1 1.52 81.9 0.89 611.2 14.67 645.92 Uganda 41.3 0.33 63.0 0.69 8.9 0.21 - 85.87 Unidentified Country 75.5 0.59 208.0 2.27 50.3 1.21 - 75.81 GAUnite Arab Emirates 0.0 0.00 34.7 0.38 0.0 0.00 - 100.00IN Report – UP1214 – Grain and Feed Annual Page 19 of 26 United Kingdom 90.9 0.71 38.2 0.42 6.1 0.15 - 84.04 Uzbekistan 14.6 0.11 0.0 0.00 0.7 0.02 0.00 Vietnam 81.8 0.64 275.3 3.01 107.1 2.57 - 61.09 Yemen 2.3 0.02 61.0 0.67 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Source: State Customs Committee of Ukraine UNCLASSIFIED USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Barley Export Statistics by Month and Destination, Ukraine, 1000 MT (HS Code 1003) Destination Jul.2011 Aug.2011 Sept.2011 Oct.2011 Nov.2011 Dec.2011 Jan.2012 Feb.2012 Subtotal World 157.1 627.2 668.3 229.3 15.1 31.7 67.9 9.8 1,806.3 Saudi Arabia 128.7 490.8 522.7 167.2 0.0 15.3 8.1 0.0 1,332.7 Syria 19.5 19.6 92.7 25.6 0.0 16.4 7.3 0.0 181.1 Iran 0.0 61.5 0.0 30.8 0.0 0.0 25.6 0.0 117.8 Israel 8.9 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.1 4.1 43.5 Qatar 0.0 39.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 39.0 Lebanon 0.0 0.0 19.2 0.0 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 26.5 Jordan 0.0 0.0 21.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.0 Libya 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.3 0.0 0.0 9.6 5.7 20.6 Cyprus 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8 Morocco 0.0 0.0 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 GAIN Report – UP1214 – Grain and Feed Annual Page 20 of 26 Italy 0.0 0.0 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9 Greece 0.0 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 Uzbekistan 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 Vietnam 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 Source: State Customs Committee of Ukraine UNCLASSIFIED USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Barley Exports from Ukraine by Destination, MY, 1000 MT (HS Code 1003) MY 2008/09 M Y 2 0 0 9 /10 M Y 2 0 1 0 / 1 1 % Change (July 08-June 09) (July 09-June 10) (July 10-June 11) Destination MY 2010/11 to 2009/10 Quantity % Share Quantity % Share Quantity % Share World 6,371.2 100.00 6,232.7 100.00 2,794.1 100.00 - 55.17 Algeria 76.8 1.20 13.0 0.21 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Armenia 0.3 0.01 0.8 0.01 2.0 0.07 144.40 Austria 0.0 0.00 1.0 0.02 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Azerbaijan 0.9 0.01 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 Bahrain 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Belarus 6.3 0.10 0.2 0.00 0.1 0.00 - 64.71 Cyprus 121.0 1.90 14.8 0.24 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Egypt 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 7.9 0.28 0.00 France 0.0 0.00 12.1 0.19 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Georgia 0.0 0.00 2.2 0.04 2.8 0.10 25.00 Germany 17.1 0.27 0.0 0.00 5.2 0.19 0.00 Gibraltar 0.0 0.00 5.1 0.08 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Greece 7.8 0.12 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 Hungary 0.0 0.00 22.2 0.36 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Iran 1,277.5 20.05 372.7 5.98 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Iraq 9.5 0.15 0.2 0.00 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Israel 229.4 3.60 302.2 4.85 248.8 8.90 - 17.67 Italy 2.8 0.04 0.0 0.00 28.7 1.03 0.00 Japan 0.0 0.00 160.0 2.57 71.0 2.54 - 55.63 Jordan 312.2 4.90 410.7 6.59 33.0 1.18 - 91.96 Kazakhstan 50.5 0.79 10.0 0.16 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Korea South 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.5 0.02 0.00 Kuwait 123.4 1.94 166.2 2.67 67.7 2.42 - 59.24 Latvia 0.0 0.00 9.0 0.14 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Libya 120.4 1.89 245.4 3.94 200.4 7.17 - 18.35 Moldova 0.1 0.00 0.4 0.01 0.1 0.00 - 78.55 Morocco 48.1 0.75 98.0 1.57 14.8 0.53 - 84.94 Netherlands 57.4 0.90 51.3 0.82 24.1 0.86 - 53.09 New Zealand 0.0 0.00 0.3 0.01 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Oman 34.4 0.54 4.6 0.07 15.9 0.57 245.97 Pakistan 0.0 0.00 3.2 0.05 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Portugal 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 12.5 0.45 0.00 Qatar 97.9 1.54 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 Russia 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 5.7 0.21 ∞ Saudi Arabia 2,555.4 40.11 3,918.7 62.87 1,797.9 64.35 - 54.12 Spain 34.0 0.53 8.0 0.13 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Switzerland 51.1 0.80 66.8 1.07 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Syria 834.5 13.10 99.3 1.59 80.9 2.90 - 18.52 Tunisia 104.7 1.64 45.7 0.73 119.1 4.26 160.68 GAIN Report – UP1214 – Grain and Feed Annual Page 21 of 26 Turkey 25.8 0.40 74.6 1.20 5.0 0.18 - 93.32 United Kingdom 43.7 0.69 22.5 0.36 2.7 0.10 - 87.97 Uzbekistan 4.9 0.08 12.6 0.20 2.1 0.07 - 83.58 Vietnam 0.0 0.00 33.0 0.53 4.8 0.17 - 85.61 Source: State Customs Committee of Ukraine UNCLASSIFIED USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Corn Export Statistics by Month and Destination, Ukraine, 1000 MT (HS Code 1005) Destination Oct.2011 Nov.2011 Dec.2011 Jan.2012 Feb.2012 Subtotal World 635.4 1,785.0 1,782.8 1,776.5 1,215.7 7,195.4 Egypt 304.1 576.8 333.4 327.2 228.1 1,769.6 Spain 10.6 281.7 445.9 165.9 95.1 999.1 Iran 57.9 155.4 150.1 362.8 105.9 832.0 Korea South 0.0 0.0 118.0 164.8 168.3 451.2 Syria 31.0 138.4 86.4 123.6 39.5 418.9 Japan 0.0 57.3 64.2 83.1 188.1 392.7 Portugal 0.0 145.5 67.2 145.6 20.8 379.2 Algeria 56.2 157.4 27.6 32.7 25.7 299.6 Tunisia 34.1 82.9 75.5 65.7 5.9 264.0 Israel 10.0 15.5 98.0 58.6 70.4 252.4 Netherlands 0.0 134.5 51.2 30.5 0.0 216.2 Libya 48.2 7.9 68.6 12.1 25.5 162.2 Lebanon 0.0 5.0 60.2 50.2 43.5 158.9 Saudi Arabia 53.7 0.0 58.0 0.0 0.0 111.6 South Africa 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.7 82.7 108.3 Morocco 0.0 0.0 46.9 11.7 6.0 64.6 Ghana 0.0 0.0 0.0 38.5 25.3 63.8 Taiwan 0.0 0.8 3.1 22.5 25.5 51.8 Italy 0.0 16.9 5.9 21.8 0.0 44.6 Germany 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.3 30.3 Jordan 26.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 26.9 Malaysia 0.0 0.2 0.3 25.0 0.0 25.6 Belarus 0.4 5.9 13.3 2.5 2.8 24.9 United Arab Emirates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.0 22.0 Lithuania 1.6 0.6 1.7 0.6 0.9 5.4 Latvia 0.3 1.1 0.8 1.3 0.0 3.4 United Kingdom 0.0 0.0 3.2 0.0 0.0 3.2 Poland 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.5 2.8 Hungary 0.3 0.2 0.2 2.0 0.0 2.7 Russia 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.6 1.1 2.3 Indonesia 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.5 2.3 GA Tu kmenistan 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 1.3IN Report – UP1214 – Grain and Feed Annual Page 22 of 26 Oman 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 Azerbaijan 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 Estonia 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 Other 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 Corn Exports from Ukraine by Destination, MY, 1000 MT (HS Code 1005) Source: State Customs Committee of Ukraine MY 2008/09 M Y 2 0 0 9 /10 M Y 2 0 1 0 / 1 1 % Change (Oct. 08-Sept. 09) (Oct. 09-Sept. 10) (Oct. 10-Sept. 11) Destin ation MY 2011/12 to 2010/11 Quantity % Share Quantity % Share Quantity % Share World 5,497.2 100.00 5,067.6 100.00 5,007.6 100.00 - 1.18 Albania 5.0 0.09 0.0 0.00 2.9 0.06 0.00 Algeria 265.5 4.83 184.0 3.63 88.8 1.77 - 51.73 Anguilla 0.0 0.00 6.3 0.12 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Armenia 5.9 0.11 7.3 0.14 30.4 0.61 315.57 UNCLASSIFIED USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Corn Exports from Ukraine by Destination, MY, 1000 MT (HS Code 1005) (Continued) MY 2008/09 M Y 2 0 0 9 /10 M Y 2 0 1 0 / 1 1 % Change (Oct. 08-Sept. 09) (Oct. 09-Sept. 10) (Oct. 10-Sept. 11) Destination MY 2011/12 to 2010/11 Quantity % Share Quantity % Share Quantity % Share Austria 1.6 0.03 0.0 0.00 1.8 0.04 ∞ Azerbaijan 34.6 0.63 11.6 0.23 40.5 0.81 249.24 Belarus 155.1 2.82 55.3 1.09 68.7 1.37 24.19 Cyprus 29.7 0.54 9.5 0.19 14.4 0.29 52.13 Czech Republic 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Egypt 1,037.7 18.88 1,583.1 31.24 992.8 19.83 - 37.29 Estonia 12.1 0.22 1.3 0.03 4.7 0.09 264.53 France 6.1 0.11 0.0 0.00 30.1 0.60 ∞ Georgia 27.9 0.51 28.3 0.56 31.4 0.63 11.07 Germany 34.9 0.64 0.0 0.00 7.6 0.15 0.00 Gibraltar 31.7 0.58 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 Greece 1.3 0.02 0.0 0.00 44.3 0.88 0.00 Hong Kong 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 Hungary 55.6 1.01 8.2 0.16 4.1 0.08 - 49.91 Iran 695.8 12.66 73.7 1.45 641.3 12.81 770.29 Ireland 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 27.5 0.55 0.00 Israel 413.2 7.52 514.2 10.15 256.3 5.12 - 50.15 Italy 6.2 0.11 7.5 0.15 208.2 4.16 2680.45 Japan 194.1 3.53 252.9 4.99 0.1 0.00 - 99.95 Jordan 61.4 1.12 8.1 0.16 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Kazakhstan 3.8 0.07 0.1 0.00 0.3 0.01 190.05 Kenya 83.2 1.51 46.1 0.91 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Korea South 125.8 2.29 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 Latvia 10.1 0.18 1.1 0.02 4.6 0.09 317.04 Lebanon 48.8 0.89 104.1 2.06 117.0 2.34 12.37 Libya 207.2 3.77 382.0 7.54 142.7 2.85 - 62.63 Lithuania 21.0 0.38 6.4 0.13 75.9 1.52 1079.69 Malaysia 3.8 0.07 4.0 0.08 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Moldova 0.0 0.00 0.4 0.01 0.0 0.00 - 96.45 Morocco 104.4 1.90 0.0 0.00 7.6 0.15 0.00 Netherlands 97.7 1.78 41.9 0.83 263.1 5.25 527.44 Poland 5.5 0.10 0.0 0.00 67.2 1.34 0.00 Portugal 52.0 0.95 271.0 5.35 316.8 6.33 16.88 Russia 31.6 0.57 17.1 0.34 87.5 1.75 412.02 Saudi Arabia 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 21.9 0.44 0.00 Serbia 0.3 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 Slovakia 0.1 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 Slovenia 0.1 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 Spain 234.4 4.26 261.5 5.16 672.2 13.42 157.08 Sudan 53.3 0.97 23.5 0.46 3.9 0.08 - 83.58 Switzerland 6.2 0.11 10.2 0.20 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Syria 657.0 11.95 652.3 12.87 322.6 6.44 - 50.55 Taiwan 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.6 0.01 0.00 Tajikistan 4.7 0.09 0.0 0.00 0.1 0.00 0.00 Tunisia 359.4 6.54 316.4 6.24 227.5 4.54 - 28.07 Turkey 194.5 3.54 165.0 3.26 152.2 3.04 - 7.73 Turkmenistan 0.1 0.00 1.8 0.04 0.3 0.01 - 85.52 GAIN Report – UP1214 – Grain and Feed Annual Page 23 of 26 United Kingdom 12.7 0.23 6.8 0.13 25.8 0.52 280.62 United States 0.0 0.00 1.6 0.03 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Uzbekistan 17.1 0.31 3.1 0.06 1.8 0.04 - 42.44 Vietnam 87.3 1.59 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 Source: State Customs Committee of Ukraine UNCLASSIFIED USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Corn Seed Imports to Ukraine by Month and Origin, MT (HS Code 100510) Subtotal October November December January February Mararch April May June August September October November December Origin July 2011 Oct.2010- 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 Sept.2011 World 45.0 1,345.0 2,929.0 3,311.0 7,290.0 14,173.0 10,468.0 661.0 132.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 160.0 7,078.0 40,354.0 Australia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 Aus .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 1,226.0tria 5.0 47.0 9.0 105.0 140.0 365.0 547.0 8 Belarus 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bulgaria 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.0 95.0 72.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 186.0 Canada 0.0 23.0 0.0 67.0 594.0 1,564.0 218.0 0.0 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,473.0 Chile 0.0 0.0 38.0 101.0 107.0 117.0 513.0 58.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 129.0 934.0 Croatia 40.0 0.0 0.0 53.0 20.0 29.0 245.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.0 387.0 France 0.0 61.0 599.0 406.0 872.0 1,938.0 2,554.0 46.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.0 576.0 6,476.0 Germany 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.0 48.0 138.0 1.0 32.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 237.0 G .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.0reece 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 Hungary 0.0 775.0 852.0 1,265.0 1,486.0 4,426.0 2,599.0 318.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.0 2,836.0 11,721.0 Italy 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 Mexico 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Moldova 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 25.0 44.0 121.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 197.0 New Zealand 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 44.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 44.0 Poland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 Romania 0.0 200.0 1,278.0 1,176.0 2,952.0 3,109.0 2,074.0 137.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.0 3,502.0 10,926.0 Russ 20.0 0.0 0.0ia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Serbia 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.0 22.0 72.0 182.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 305.0 Slovakia 0.0 70.0 49.0 42.0 152.0 149.0 200.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 662.0 GAIN Report – UP1214 – Grain and Feed Annual Page 24 of 26 Suriname 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 Switzerland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 Tu 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 711.0 151.0 153.0 39.0 91.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,145.0rkey 0. Un ,412.0ited States 0.0 169.0 104.0 69.0 172.0 2,063.0 835.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 3 Source: State Customs Committee of Ukraine UNCLASSIFIED USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Corn Seed Imports to Ukraine by Origin, Calendar Year, MT (HS Code 100510) 2009 2010 2011 % Change Origin 2011 to 2010 Quantity % Share Quantity % Share Quantity % Share World 17,214.0 100.00 29,386.0 100.00 43,276.0 100.00 47.27 Argentina 52.0 0.30 67.0 0.23 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Australia 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 2.0 0.01 0.00 Austria 74.0 0.43 747.0 2.54 1,169.0 2.70 56.50 Belarus 0.0 0.00 8.0 0.03 2.0 0.01 - 70.17 Bulgaria 1.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 185.0 0.43 ∞ Canada 1,877.0 10.91 2,155.0 7.33 2,450.0 5.66 13.70 Chile 6.0 0.03 717.0 2.44 1,027.0 2.37 43.17 Croatia 80.0 0.46 178.0 0.61 378.0 0.87 112.36 France 2,472.0 14.36 4,090.0 13.92 6,485.0 14.98 58.54 Germany 35.0 0.20 313.0 1.07 236.0 0.55 - 24.61 Greece 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 12.0 0.03 0.00 Hungary 2,191.0 12.73 9,343.0 31.79 12,945.0 29.91 38.55 India 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Italy 104.0 0.60 3.0 0.01 4.0 0.01 52.17 Mexico 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 - 22.40 Moldova 3.0 0.02 88.0 0.30 196.0 0.45 123.85 New Zealand 0.0 0.00 5.0 0.02 44.0 0.10 767.82 Poland 21.0 0.12 75.0 0.26 1.0 0.00 - 99.04 Puerto Rico (U.S.) 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Romania 1,700.0 9.87 4,008.0 13.64 12,978.0 29.99 223.76 Russia 0.0 0.00 92.0 0.31 20.0 0.05 - 78.71 Serbia 193.0 1.12 118.0 0.40 306.0 0.71 158.00 Slovakia 0.0 0.00 853.0 2.90 544.0 1.26 - 36.24 Spain 0.0 0.00 5.0 0.02 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 GAIN Report – UP1214 – Grain and Feed Annual Page 25 of 26 Suriname 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 2.0 0.00 0.00 Switzerland 0.0 0.00 38.0 0.13 3.0 0.01 - 92.00 Turkey 157.0 0.91 214.0 0.73 1,145.0 2.64 433.75 United States 8,248.0 47.91 6,267.0 21.33 3,143.0 7.26 - 49.85 Source: State Customs Committee of Ukraine UNCLASSIFIED USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Rye Export Statistics by Month and Destination, Ukraine, 1000 MT (HS Code 1002) Destination Jul.2011 Aug.2011 Sept.2011 Oct.2011 Nov.2011 Dec.2011 Jan.2012 Subtotal GAIN Report – UP1214 – Grain and Feed Annual Page 26 of 26 World 1.0 0.0 1.5 1.8 1.3 0.8 3.3 9.6 Poland 0.0 0.0 1.5 1.8 1.3 0.0 3.3 7.9 Lithuania 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 Latvia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 Netherlands 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Source: State Customs Committee of Ukraine Rye Exports from Ukraine by Destination, MY, 1000 MT (HS Code 1002) MY 2008/09 M Y 2 0 0 9 /10 M Y 2 0 1 0 / 1 1 % Change (July 08-June 09) (July 09-June 10) (July 10-June 11) Destination MY 2011/12 to Qu 2010/11 antity % Share Quantity % Share Quantity % Share World 5.7 100.00 55.1 100.00 38.3 100.00 - 30.48 Austria 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.08 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Egypt 0.0 0.00 55.0 99.84 30.6 79.93 - 44.34 Israel 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.08 0.0 0.00 - 100.00 Latvia 3.0 52.98 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 Syria 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 7.7 20.07 0.00 Turkey 2.4 42.26 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 Uzbekistan 0.3 4.77 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 Source: State Customs Committee of Ukraine UNCLASSIFIED USDA Foreign Agricultural Service
Posted: 13 May 2012

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