New Trade Export Balances

A Lastest News about Crops and Support Services in Ukraine

Posted on: 21 Sep 2012

Within the past week the Ukrainian Government and industry representatives reached an understanding on grain export quantities for the current Marketing Year.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Voluntary Public - Date: 9/7/2012 GAIN Report Number: UP1228 Ukraine Post: Kiev New Trade Export Balances Report Categories: Grain and Feed Approved By: Randall Hager Prepared By: Yuliya Dubinyuk Report Highlights: Within the past week the Ukrainian Government and industry representatives reached an understanding on grain export quantities for the current Marketing Year. Exports of wheat in Marketing Year 2012/13 were pre-set to four million metric tons (MMT), barley to three MMT, and corn to 12.4 MMT. However, these figures were left flexible and may change depending on the situation in the domestic market in the coming months. General Information: In the recent weeks, negotiations between the government and the trade led to an agreement reached on September 4, 2012 and documented in the amendment to the current Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on exports of major grains from Ukraine. The Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine (MinAg) within the last month reviewed its domestic balances of grains and reduced its carryover stocks numbers. As a result, there appeared to be less grain available for export. According to recent changes signed by MinAg and major grain industry representatives, exporters agreed not to export major grains above the determined levels, while the State promised not to impose any formal export restrictions before these limits were reached. The quantities for grain exports ‘without restrictions’ that were outlined in the updated MOU were as follows: wheat 4.0 MMT barley 3.0 MMT corn 12.4 MMT Accordingly, FAS-Kyiv has revised its projections for the current Marketing Year (MY 2012/13) reducing the export quantities and increasing the local stocks numbers for wheat and corn (see PS&D tables below). Barley estimates were left unchanged. It is expected that pace of exports from Ukraine would remain slow in the coming months until the quantities close to those mentioned above were exported. These figures may be reviewed and changed again per the domestic market situation. 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Jul 2011 Market Year Begin: Jul 2012 Wheat, 2011/2012 2012/2013 Estimate Forecast Ukraine Market Year Begin: Oc t 2011 Mark et Year Begin: Oc t 2012 Corn USD A USD A Old P o st N ew P o st Old P o st N ew P o st Off icial Off icial Estimate Forecast Ukraine USD A USD A Area Harvested 6,657 6,657 6,657 5,700 5,700 5,700 Old P o st N ew P o st Old P o st N ew P o st Off icial Off icial Beginning Stocks 3,340 3,340 3,340 5,314 5,415 5,415 Area Harvested 3,54 3,54 3,54 4,5 4,72 4,72 Production 22,124 22,324 22,324 15,000 15,000 15,000 Beginning Stocks 1, 21 1,12 1,12 1,2 9 866 2,166 MY Imports 100 1 1 100 1 1 Production 22,838 22,500 22,500 21,0 21,000 21,000 TY Imports 100 1 1 100 1 1 MY Imports 5 45 45 5 5 5 TY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Y Imports 50 4 4 50 50 50 Total Supply 25,564 25,665 25,665 20,414 20,416 20,416 TY Imp. from U.S. 5 5 2 2 MY Exports 5,300 5,300 5,300 6,000 6,000 4,000 otal Supply 24,0 9 23,666 23,666 22,259 21,916 23,216 TY Exports 5,300 5,300 5,300 6,000 6,000 4,000 MY Exports 14,5 15,0 13,7 12,5 14,0 12,4 Feed and Residual 6,100 6,100 6,100 3,800 3,800 3,800 TY Exports 14,50 15,00 13,70 12, 14,0 12,4 FSI Consumption 8,850 8,850 8,850 8,500 8,500 8,500 Feed and Residual 7,00 6,50 6,50 7,0 6,0 7,0 Total Consumption 14,950 14,950 14,950 12,300 12,300 12,300 FSI Consumption 1, 00 1,300 1,300 1,500 1,300 1,600 Ending Stocks 5,314 5,415 5,415 2,114 2,116 4,116 PSD Tables t l Consumption 8,300 7,800 7,800 8,500 7,300 8,600 Total Distribution 25,564 25,665 25,665 20,414 20,416 20,416 Ending Stocks 1,209 866 2,166 1,259 616 2,216 Yield 3.32 3.35 3.35 2.63 2.63 2.63 Total Distribution 24,009 23,666 23,666 22,259 21,916 23,216 Yield 6.44 6.35 6.35 4.67 4.45 4.45 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Jul 2011 Market Year Begin: Jul 2012 Barley Uk raine E s ti m a te Forecast USD A USD A Old P o st N ew P o st Old P o st N ew P o st Off icial Off icial Area Harvested 3,684 3,684 3,684 3,300 3,300 3,300 Beginning Stocks 794 794 794 1,522 1,122 1,122 Production 9,098 9,098 9,098 6,600 6,600 6,600 MY Imports 30 30 30 30 30 30 TY Imports 30 35 35 30 30 30 TY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 9,922 9,922 9,922 8,152 7,752 7,752 MY Exports 2,800 2,500 2,500 2,000 2,200 2,200 TY Exports 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,000 2,500 2,500 Feed and Residual 4,000 4,700 4,700 3,700 3,200 3,200 FSI Consumption 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 Total Consumption 5,600 6,300 6,300 5,300 4,800 4,800 Ending Stocks 1,522 1,122 1,122 852 752 752 Total Distribution 9,922 9,922 9,922 8,152 7,752 7,752 Yield 2.47 2.47 2.47 2. 2. 2.
Posted: 21 September 2012

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