Crop update - Smaller than Forecast Harvest

An Expert's View about Agriculture and Animal Husbandry in the United Kingdom

Posted on: 28 Nov 2012

With Member States starting to publish provisional harvest estimates for 2012, the total MY2012/13 EU27 grain crop is now only expected to reach 270.8 MMT,

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Voluntary Public - Date: 11/2/2012 GAIN Report Number: United Kingdom EU-27 Post: London Crop update - smaller than forecast harvest means balance tight Report Categories: Grain and Feed Approved By: Lashonda McLeod Prepared By: Steve Knight Report Highlights: With Member States starting to publish provisional harvest estimates for 2012, the total MY2012/13 EU27 grain crop is now only expected to reach 270.8 MMT, 1.8 MMT below previous expectations and the smallest in five previous seasons. Within this total, wheat production is put at 131 MMT, barley at 53.5 MMT, and corn at 55 MMT; all three below previous forecasts. The focus is now turning to usage within the EU27 and the implications for trade. The smaller than anticipated harvest has also increased the previous concerns regarding the tightness of the balance following the low carry in stocks and the expectation that MY2012/13 will see them further eroded. Executive Summary: With Member States starting to publish provisional harvest estimates for 2012, the total MY2012/13 EU27 grain crop is now expected to reach 270.8 MMT. This is 1.8 MMT less than previously forecast, nearly 14 MMT less than last season, over 42 MMT below the record crop recorded four seasons ago and the smallest since the 256.7 MMT harvest five seasons ago. Within this total, the EU27 wheat and corn harvests are forecast significantly smaller than last year’s, at 131 MMT (down over 6 MMT) and 55 MMT (down 11 MMT), respectfully. Both harvests are also smaller than the previous forecast. The EU27 barley harvest, now forecast to reach 53.5 MMT, is also smaller than previously forecasted but 2 MMT up on last season. The EU27 is estimated to have carried just 26.6 MMT of stocks into the current marketing year. When combined with the reduced harvest, there is a strong focus on usage and the implications for trade in MY2012/13. The tight balance also means an MY2012/13 forecast for a further drawdown in the already low stocks. The EU27 experienced contrasting growing and harvesting conditions in MY2011/12. The UK had the second wettest summer on record, and in addition to hampering crop development, the rains delayed and disrupted the harvest. France, and to some extent Germany, also experienced wet weather earlier in the summer but ultimately experienced good harvest conditions; although also somewhat delayed. In the south and east, the story was of hot and dry weather. While this proved positive for the crops in Italy, Spain, and Portugal, the conditions were much more severe elsewhere and detrimentally affected crops, particularly in Romania, Hungary, and Bulgaria. With regards to the outlook for the grain harvest in 2013, and with planting of some crops already under way, weather is again the main focus in some parts of the EU27. The late harvests in the UK and France have necessarily delayed plantings for the new crop. For France, the main concern is increased vulnerability to frost damage. Additionally in the UK, continuing wet weather has deterred the planting of rapeseed and increased the potential area for other grains, notably wheat, but the conditions continue to hamper planting in some regions. In the south east of the EU27, the dry soils are of concern for winter crop development. Elsewhere, conditions seem generally good and hopes are high that this winter will not see a repeat of last year’s widespread winterkill. For wheat, the MY2012/13 crop is around 600,000 MT below previous expectations, smaller than expected harvests in the UK and the Czech Republic being partially compensated by better than expected results elsewhere. The UK crop is revised lower following very challenging harvest conditions. A small increase in the UK area was ultimately more than offset by an average yield at its lowest level since 1988, the aforementioned cool and wet conditions which proved problematic earlier in the season was unabated through harvest. The Czech Republic’s wheat crop is revised lower due to a combination of drought damage and abandoned fields. Germany, Italy, France, Poland, and Lithuania all fared much better at harvest. Indeed, the latter three produced wheat crops of a size exceeding previous expectations. Romania and Spain both experienced lower crops year-on-year, but are in line with previous expectations, putting the EU27 total at 131 MMT. The quality is described as generally good, with Germany having produced a much improved crop as compared to the low quality crop experienced last season. Improved quality is also reported in Poland and the south east of the EU27; the exception is the UK where quality is very variable. On the wheat demand side, total Food, Seed & Industrial (FSI) use is forecast unchanged in MY2012/13. A slight reduction in industrial use in Spain and France is forecast to be offset by increased industrial use in Germany, the Benelux, and the UK, the latter due to the re-starting of UK bioethanol production at the UK’s only facility. Potential usage by a second UK wheat biofuels plant, scheduled to open in MY2012/13, is not included. Regarding intra-EU trade, both Spain and the UK will have increased requirements this season due to their smaller crops. The latter’s variable and generally poor quality will mean an increase in milling quality wheat for blending, mainly from Germany and France. On third country export markets, EU27 wheat is in demand due to the lack of export availability in the Black Sea. Indeed, the season has gotten off to a prompt start, assisted by EU27 wheat currently being competitively priced against U.S. wheat for nearby destinations. With expected lower exports from Argentina and Australia this season, the EU27 is currently forecast to export 17.5 MMT in MY2012/13. With carry-in stocks from MY2011/12 at just 12.2 MMT, the supply situation remains tight. Even with wheat usage as feed forecast to fall by 5 MMT, EU27 wheat stocks are forecast to further decline in MY2012/13. Of the other grains, it is the corn situation that is of most interest given that the EU27 harvest is continuing. Albeit behind the norm in many Member States due to the late planting and slow development of the crop, harvest is well advanced in the south and south east while rains are slowing field work in France and Germany. Thus, a clearer picture of the size and quality of the crop is emerging. Earlier concerns regarding the crops in France and Germany have been allayed. While yields were always expected to be down, the exceptionally dry and hot weather in the south east of the EU27 has seen yields suffer considerably in recent months. This is particularly the case in Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria. The exception is Poland where a higher area, due to increased spring plantings following winterkill of other crops means the crop size has considerably exceeded previous expectations and reached a record level; a 60 per cent year-on-year increase in planted area equating to a 50 per cent increase in production. Spain and Portugal see a reduction in year-on-year output, but on reduced areas. With the exception of Italy where disease is of some concern, quality is also reported to be good, particularly in Poland. With output down 11 MMT year-on-year, imports; however, are forecast to rise, predominantly from Brazil and Ukraine to the Iberian Peninsula. On the demand side, increased corn use in the ethanol sector is forecast to counterbalance any decline in food use. MY2012/13 feed use is forecast up on previous expectations, due to an increase in corn’s expected competiveness with the other grains, but still considerably down on last season. Ending stocks are forecast to decline. General Information: Unless stated otherwise, data in this report is based on the views of Foreign Agricultural Service analysts in the EU27 and is not official USDA data. This report would not have been possible without the valuable expert contributions from the following Foreign Service analysts: Xavier Audran, FAS/Paris Ornella Bettini, FAS/Rome Mila Boshnakova, FAS/Sofia Monica Dobrescu, FAS/Bucharest Bob Flach, FAS/The Hague Marta Guerrero, FAS/Madrid Steve Knight, FAS/London Mira Kobuszynska, FAS/Warsaw Roswitha Krautgartner, FAS/Vienna Sabine Lieberz, FAS/Berlin Jana Mikulasova, FAS/Prague Ferenc Nemes, FAS/Budapest Barrie Williams, FAS/USEU/Brussels HA = Hectares MT = Metric Tonne MY = Marketing Year. Post and USDA official data both follow the EU27 local marketing year of July to June except for corn which follows an October to September calendar. TY = July to June for wheat and October to September for coarse grains Author Defined: Appendices Wheat EU-27 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Jul 2010 Market Year Begin: Jul 2011 Market Year Begin: Jul 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Harvested 25,838 25,868 25,655 25,700 25,172 25,300 Beginning Stocks 16,157 16,157 11,836 11,728 13,636 12,229 Production 135,858 135,994 137,370 137,200 131,577 131,000 MY Imports 4,727 4,727 7,369 7,370 5,500 6,000 TY Imports 4,727 4,727 7,369 7,370 5,500 6,000 TY Imp. from U.S. 1,316 1,470 1,183 1,223 0 Total Supply 156,742 156,878 156,575 156,298 150,713 149,229 MY Exports 22,906 22,906 16,439 16,569 16,500 17,500 TY Exports 22,906 22,906 16,439 16,569 16,500 17,500 Feed and Residual 52,500 52,500 57,000 58,000 55,500 53,000 FSI Consumption 69,500 69,744 69,500 69,500 69,500 69,500 Total Consumption 122,000 122,224 126,500 127,500 125,000 122,500 Ending Stocks 11,836 11,728 13,636 12,229 9,213 9,229 Total Distribution 156,742 156,878 156,575 156,298 150,713 149,229 1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA Barley EU-27 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Jul 2010 Market Year Begin: Jul 2011 Market Year Begin: May 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Harvested 12,465 12,455 11,966 11,920 12,544 12,400 Beginning Stocks 15,532 15,532 7,952 7,781 5,116 5,086 Production 53,514 53,463 51,509 51,400 54,254 53,500 MY Imports 174 176 431 430 200 200 TY Imports 286 285 400 400 200 200 TY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 69,220 69,171 59,892 59,611 59,570 58,786 MY Exports 4,868 4,868 3,076 3,025 3,000 3,300 TY Exports 4,594 4,594 3,400 3,400 3,000 3,300 Feed and Residual 41,200 41,400 36,500 36,500 37,800 37,000 FSI Consumption 15,200 15,122 15,200 15,000 15,200 15,000 Total Consumption 56,400 56,522 51,700 51,500 53,000 52,000 Ending Stocks 7,952 7,781 5,116 5,086 3,570 3,486 Total Distribution 69,220 69,171 59,892 59,611 59,570 58,786 1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA Corn EU-27 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Oct 2010 Market Year Begin: Oct 2011 Market Year Begin: May 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Harvested 7,994 8,015 8,766 8,750 8,994 9,050 Beginning Stocks 5,208 5,208 4,923 4,816 5,994 6,416 Production 55,934 56,125 65,271 66,000 55,612 55,000 MY Imports 7,359 7,436 6,300 6,000 5,000 7,000 TY Imports 7,359 7,436 6,300 6,000 5,000 7,000 TY Imp. from U.S. 945 1,029 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 68,501 68,769 76,494 76,816 66,606 68,416 MY Exports 1,078 1,078 3,200 3,200 500 1,000 TY Exports 1,078 1,078 3,200 3,200 500 1,000 Feed and Residual 47,500 48,000 52,000 52,000 46,000 48,000 FSI Consumption 15,000 14,875 15,300 15,200 15,500 15,500 Total Consumption 62,500 62,875 67,300 67,200 61,500 63,500 Ending Stocks 4,923 4,816 5,994 6,416 4,606 3,916 Total Distribution 68,501 68,769 76,494 76,816 66,606 68,416 1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA Rye EU-27 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Jul 2010 Market Year Begin: Jul 2011 Market Year Begin: May 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Harvested 2,323 2,298 2,283 2,260 2,341 2,250 Beginning Stocks 1,727 1,727 1,032 1,040 901 921 Production 7,592 7,540 6,939 6,900 8,144 8,350 MY Imports 19 21 289 290 50 50 TY Imports 36 35 275 275 50 50 TY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 9,338 9,288 8,260 8,230 9,095 9,321 MY Exports 106 109 59 59 75 75 TY Exports 71 71 65 65 75 75 Feed and Residual 3,700 3,700 2,800 2,900 3,800 4,100 FSI Consumption 4,500 4,439 4,500 4,350 4,500 4,500 Total Consumption 8,200 8,139 7,300 7,250 8,300 8,600 Ending Stocks 1,032 1,040 901 921 720 646 Total Distribution 9,338 9,288 8,260 8,230 9,095 9,321 1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA Sorghum EU-27 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Jul 2010 Market Year Begin: Jul 2011 Market Year Begin: Jul 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Harvested 113 113 111 110 100 110 Beginning Stocks 24 24 17 21 14 13 Production 626 629 675 670 549 600 MY Imports 921 921 88 88 300 300 TY Imports 922 922 125 125 300 300 TY Imp. from U.S. 628 774 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 1,571 1,574 780 779 863 913 MY Exports 4 4 6 6 5 5 TY Exports 4 4 5 5 5 5 Feed and Residual 1,540 1,540 750 750 825 875 FSI Consumption 10 9 10 10 10 10 Total Consumption 1,550 1,549 760 760 835 885 Ending Stocks 17 21 14 13 23 23 Total Distribution 1,571 1,574 780 779 863 913 1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA Oats EU-27 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Jul 2010 Market Year Begin: Jul 2011 Market Year Begin: Jul 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Harvested 2,742 2,619 2,676 2,625 2,656 2,650 Beginning Stocks 1,224 1,224 813 758 832 795 Production 7,446 7,324 7,782 7,750 7,948 7,600 MY Imports 2 5 4 4 5 5 TY Imports 6 5 5 5 5 5 TY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 8,672 8,553 8,599 8,512 8,785 8,400 MY Exports 109 109 167 167 100 100 TY Exports 113 113 170 170 100 100 Feed and Residual 5,950 5,950 5,800 5,800 6,000 5,750 FSI Consumption 1,800 1,736 1,800 1,750 1,800 1,750 Total Consumption 7,750 7,686 7,600 7,550 7,800 7,500 Ending Stocks 813 758 832 795 885 800 Total Distribution 8,672 8,553 8,599 8,512 8,785 8,400 1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA Mixed Grain EU-27 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Market Year Begin: Jul 2010 Market Year Begin: Jul 2011 Market Year Begin: Jul 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Harvested 4,346 4,077 4,109 4,050 4,021 3,500 Beginning Stocks 2,139 2,139 1,672 1,657 1,139 1,157 Production 15,133 14,990 14,067 14,500 14,488 14,750 MY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 TY Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 TY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 17,272 17,129 15,739 16,157 15,627 15,907 MY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 TY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 Feed and Residual 14,400 14,300 13,400 13,800 13,500 14,000 FSI Consumption 1,200 1,172 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 Total Consumption 15,600 15,472 14,600 15,000 14,700 15,200 Ending Stocks 1,672 1,657 1,139 1,157 927 707 Total Distribution 17,272 17,129 15,739 16,157 15,627 15,907 1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA
Posted: 28 November 2012

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