Uzbekistan's MY 2010/11 cotton lint production and export forecast have been decreased to 4.35 million bales and 3.0 million bales respectively. Due to problems related to irrigation water shortages, the MY2011/12 lint production is forecast at 4.4 million bales.
THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY
USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT
Required Report - public distribution
Dat 09/02/2011 e:
GAIN Report Number: UZ1108
Uzbekistan - Republic of
Cotton and Products Update
Cotton Production Update
Rachel Nelson, Ag Attache
Nizam Yuldashbaev, Ag
Uzbekistan's MY 2010/11 cotton lint production and export forecast have been decreased to 4.35
million bales and 3.0 million bales respectively. Due to problems related to irrigation water
shortages, the MY2011/12 lint production is forecast at 4.4 million bales.
The official target for MY11/12 plant area and seed cotton production remains unchanged at 1.33
million hectares and 3.4 MMT. This year?s sowing campaign finished on-time in almost all cotton
growing regions. However, the precipitations levels in most areas were below the normal levels which
created serious problems in some regions with supply of irrigation water and negatively affected cotton
vegetation tempo. The recent weather conditions are generally favorable at this pre-harvest stage, and
the farmers will start harvesting cotton in 2-3 days reportedly. Taking into account the problems of
irrigation water shortages, MY11/12 lint production is preliminarily forecast at 4.4 million bales.
On October 12-14, 2011 Uzbekistan is planning to host the next International Cotton Fair where they
expect again participation of many international organizations and traders. Over the past 5 years the
government?s policy was directed to process more of Uzbekistan?s cotton domestically, but it has had
only limited success. About 25 percent of all cotton is still consumed domestically in spite of
government?s continued plans to increase it to 50 percent. Taking into account certain problems facing
ginning industry, in 2007 the government launched a special program for modernization and
reconstruction of some old cotton gins during 2007-2012. According to this program, the government
planned to modernize 41 cotton gins and close 30 old cotton gins in big cities, in particular those gins
with old equipment and with the lowest efficiency. As of today, reportedly more than a dozen cotton
gins were reconstructed and this work is continuing.
MY 2011/12 average seed cotton procurement price is reportedly set up at Uzbek Sums 700,000 per 1
ton. (Official exchange rate Uzbek Sums 1,736 = USD1.00)
Currently, the local textile industry has about 45 joint ventures established with partners from Turkey,
Germany, South Korea, Japan and Switzerland. As of 2011, foreign investment in the textile industry
exceeded USD 1.1 billion. In spite of the past 2 years? difficulties in global economy, the local spinning
industry is optimistic about textile production and export growth, especially for value added products.
Uzbekistan?s MY2011/12 domestic lint consumption is forecast at 1.3 million bales.
There are no official sources of information on stock volumes, so the numbers indicated in the report are
Exports of cotton are projected to decline gradually in accordance with GOU plans to increase the share
of domestic consumption to 50 percent within the next few years. However, based on various factors,
Post believes it will not happen this quickly. Post estimates MY2010/11 lint exports at 3.0 million bales.
MY2011/12 exports are preliminarily forecast at the level of 3.1 million bales. Uzbekistan still remains a
primary supplier of cotton to Asia, with Bangladesh, China and South Korea major markets for Uzbek
cotton. In spite of intergovernmental agreement on long-term cotton supplies to Russia with annual
deliveries of up to 100,000 tons, due to various market related reasons, the exports to Russia decreased
considerably in the past two years.
Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics Table 1.
Cotton Uzbekistan 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012
Market Year Begin: Aug 2009 Market Year Begin: Aug 2010 Market Year Begin: Aug 2011
USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post
Area Planted 0 1,315 0 1,340 0 1,330
Area Harvested 1,300 1,310 1,300 1,330 1,340 1,300
Beginning Stocks 1,948 1,948 948 1,068 1,148 1,168
Production 3,900 4,000 4,100 4,350 4,300 4,400
Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0
MY Imports from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Supply 5,848 5,948 5,048 5,418 5,448 5,568
Exports 3,800 3,750 2,650 3,000 3,000 3,100
Use 1,100 1,130 1,250 1,250 1,250 1,300
Loss 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Dom. Cons. 1,100 1,130 1,250 1,250 1,250 1,300
Ending Stocks 948 1,068 1,148 1,168 1,198 1,168
Total Distribution 5,848 5,948 5,048 5,418 5,448 5,568
1000 HA, 1000 480 lb. Bales, PERCENT, KG/HA