Grain and Feed Update

An Expert's View about Rice in Vietnam

Last updated: 15 Jun 2011

In southern Vietnam, specifically the Mekong River Delta, MARD’s numbers showed that the harvested area reached 1.62 million hectares, which represents an increase of 51,000 hectares over Post’s estimate of late March 2011.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 6/7/2011 GAIN Report Number: VM1039 Vietnam Grain and Feed Update May 2011 Approved By: Michael Riedel Prepared By: Quan Tran Report Highlights: Post revises its 2010 annual estimate for Vietnam?s total rice paddy production for MY 2010 up from 40.40 to 40.84 million tons, due mainly to a larger spring crop area. Post: Commodities: Hanoi Rice, Milled Author Defined: STATISTICAL TABLES Vietnam?s Production, Supply and Demand for Rice Rice, Milled Vietnam 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Market Year Begin: Jan 2010 Market Year Begin: Jan 2011 Market Year Begin: Jan 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Harvested 7,415 7,415 7,440 7,521 7,440 7,440 Beginning Stocks 1,961 1,961 1,470 1,470 1,821 2,096 Milled Production 24,993 24,993 25,251 25,526 25,430 25,434 Rough Production 39,989 39,989 40,402 40,842 40,688 40,694 Milling Rate (.9999) 6,250 6,250 6,250 6,250 6,250 6,250 MY Imports 400 400 600 600 500 500 TY Imports 400 400 600 600 500 500 TY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 27,354 27,354 27,321 27,596 27,751 28,030 MY Exports 6,734 6,734 6,200 6,200 6,400 6,500 TY Exports 6,734 6,734 6,200 6,200 6,400 6,500 Consumption and Residual 19,150 19,150 19,300 19,300 19,450 19,450 Ending Stocks 1,470 1,470 1,821 2,096 1,901 2,080 Total Distribution 27,354 27,354 27,321 27,596 27,751 28,030 1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA 3.1 PRODUCTION Table 3.2 Vietnam?s Area, Yield, and Production for Rough Rice (as of April 2011) Ma 011 rketing Yea 2009 2010 2r Revised Estimate Forecast Harvested Area (tha) Old New Old New Old New Winte 1r 1,768 1,768 1,750 1,750 1,745 1,745 Spring2 3,035 3,035 3,030 3,111 3,035 3,035 Autumn3 2,612 2,612 2,660 2,660 2,660 2,660 TOTAL 7,415 7,415 7,440 7,521 7,440 7,440 Yield (mt/ha) Winter 4.61 4.61 4.60 4.60 4.60 4.60 Spring 6.22 6.22 6.20 6.18 6.25 6.25 Autumn 4.96 4.96 5.10 5.10 5.15 5.15 AVERAGE 5.39 5.39 5.43 5.43 5.47 5.47 Production (tmt) Winter 8,155 8,155 8,050 8,050 8,027 8,027 Spring 18,878 18,878 18,786 19,226 18,969 18,969 Autumn 12,956 12,956 13,566 13,566 13,699 13,699 TOTAL 39,989 39,989 40,402 40,842 40,695 40,695 1 Lua Mua (10th Month) 2 , Winter-Spring 3, Summer-Autumn Source: MARD, Post estimates Estimate for MY 2010 (began January 2011) Post revises its 2010 annual estimate for Vietnam?s total rice paddy production for MY 2010 up from 40.40 to 40.84 million tons, due mainly to a larger spring crop area. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD), the planting area for the spring crop increased about 35,000 hectares in the upland and highland areas of northern Vietnam. In southern Vietnam, specifically the Mekong River Delta, MARD?s numbers showed that the harvested area reached 1.62 million hectares, which represents an increase of 51,000 hectares over Post?s estimate of late March 2011. Post revises its estimate of the total harvested area for the spring crop from 3.03 million hectares to 3.11 million hectares for MY 2010. As a result, total MY 2010 rice paddy production is revised from 40.40 million tons to 40.84 million tons. MRD Rice Production According to MARD reports, the rice harvest in the Mekong River Delta has been completed. MARD?s newest numbers from May show an increase of 51,000 hectares over Post?s April estimate. The average yield is reported at 6.56 tons per hectare, slightly lower than Post?s estimate and about the same as MY 2009?s yield. Mekong River Delta farmers have been planting the autumn crop ever since finishing the spring crop harvest. As of May 15, the planting area was reported at 1.15 million hectares. The planting progress was three percent ahead of that in the same period of last year. Table 3.4 Rice Production in the Mekong Delta by Marketing Year (000 ha; mt/ha; 000 mt) 2009 (Revised) 2010 (old) 2010 (Estimate) (new) Area Yield Prod. Area Yield Prod. Area Yield Prod. Winter 222 3.95 877 240 3.90 936 240 3.90 936 Spring 1,559 6.56 10,227 1,565 6.60 10,329 1,616 6.56 10,600 Autumn 1,644 4.92 8,088 1,616 4.95 7,999 1,616 4.95 7,999 Late Autumn 512 4.63 2,371 570 4.70 2,679 570 4.70 2,679 Total 3,937 21,563 3,991 21,943 4,042 22,214 Source: MARD, Post estimate
Posted: 15 June 2011, last updated 15 June 2011

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