Cotton and Products Annual 2012

An Expert's View about Cotton in Vietnam

Posted on: 21 Oct 2012

The Vietnam Marketing Year (MY) 2012/13 cotton supply and demand estimates include smaller production and ending stocks compared with last year.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 10/2/2012 GAIN Report Number: VM2049 Vietnam Cotton and Products Annual 2012 Approved By: Dwight Wilder Prepared By: Bui Thi Huong, Truong Minh Dao Report Highlights: The Vietnam Marketing Year (MY) 2012/13 cotton supply and demand estimates include smaller production and ending stocks compared with last year. Production is down 6 percent while cotton imports are up by 5 percent. Domestic mill use is increasing slightly due to the expanding cotton yarn spinning sector. While Vietnam requires about 350,000 metric tons (mt) of cotton yearly to serve its growing textile and garment sector, the country's 10,000 hectares (ha) of cotton farms produce only 4,500 tons, which only meets 1.4 percent of the total demand. Despite recent contract defaults, U.S. cotton will likely continue to be the largest source of imported cotton in MY 2012/13. Executive Summary: Vietnam relies heavily on cotton imports (1,620 thousand bales or 354,000 mtin MY 2011/12) to feed the growing textile and spinning industry due to limited cotton production. This reliance is forecast to grow in marketing year 2012/13 with imports reaching 1,705 thousand bales or 372,000 mt, 97.4 percent of forecast consumption. Due to favorable cotton prices in August 2011, Vietnam’s MY 2011/12 cotton lint production reached 5,180 mt equivalent to a mere 23.8 thousand bales, a year-on-year increase of 10.4 percent, due mainly to expanded planted area and increased cotton yield. Domestic production still only meets 1.4 percent of the total cotton demand from the textile industry. However, in early 2012, cotton prices dropped significantly and cotton is less competitive than other crops like corn and soybeans. Post forecasts the 2012/13 cotton production to decrease by 11.4 percent to 4,590 mt of cotton lint (21 thousand bales). Cotton lint demand in Vietnam has remained strong, despite the global economic downturn, as the textile and spinning industry continues to expand. In 2011/12, cotton imports increased slightly by 3.1 percent in comparison with the previous year, to approximately 354,000 mt. Despite, economic uncertainty during the 2nd half of 2012, Post estimates Vietnam’s cotton imports in 2012/13 to increase 5 percent over the previous year, to 372,000 mt (1.705 million bales) due to strong exports of yarns to China and Turkey. In 2011, the United States, for the fifth consecutive year, remained the largest supplier of cotton to Vietnam. Vietnam sourced 133,200 tons (about 41 percent) of its total cotton imports in 2011 from the United States. Vietnam is now the seventh largest market for U.S. cotton at $362.3 million in 2011. Commodities: Cotton Author Defined: SITUATION AND OUTLOOK Textile Industry Vietnam is now ranked among the world’s top seven textile, garment, and apparel-exporting countries. Despite the global economic downturn, Vietnam’s 2011 textile, garment, and apparel exports were well over the government’s target reaching a value of $15.8 billion, an increase of 26 percent over 2010 (Source: Vietnam General Statistics Office). This growth is mainly due to the sector maintaining its traditional export markets (USA, EU, Japan), while also expanding to new export markets (Korea, Taiwan, the Middle East, Singapore, China, Turkey, etc.). Vietnam has set ambitious targets for the textile industry, with exports projected by Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association (VITAS) to reach $20 billion by 2020. The Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), if finalized, would help Vietnam achieve this target. Vietnam is one of a very few countries in Asia that has expanded its yarn spinning sector in recent years. Not only foreign investors like Texthong Group (Hong Kong), Kyung Bang Vietnam (Korea); Itochu (Japan) etc., but also local businesses (Vinatex, Dai Cuong, Phu Bai, Thien Nam etc.) have increased investments in yarn spinning in Vietnam. Currently, Vietnam is home to 100 spinning factories belonging to over 80 enterprises. From only 2 million spindles in 2000, Vietnam spindle capacity reached over 5 million spindles (equivalent) in 2011 creating the potential for voracious demand for imported cotton. Textile, garment, and apparel exports to the United States, the largest market for Vietnam, accounted for nearly 50 percent of total sector exports in 2011. This represented a year- to-year increase of 7.6 percent. Cotton Market Post forecasts MY 2012/13 cotton lint production at 21 thousand bales, almost a 13 percent decline compared to MY 2011/12 as strong competition from other agricultural crops (i.e. corn, cassava, and soybeans) will reduce planted area slightly. Vietnam’s plan of having a domestic cotton growing area of 76,000 ha by 2020 is extremely ambitious (Vietnam planted 10,000 ha in 2012). Vietnam will continue to rely heavily on cotton imports to fulfill its cotton needs. MY 2012/13 cotton imports are forecast at 1.7 million bales, an increase of almost 5 percent over MY 2011/12. This growth is attributed to the expanding cotton spinning sector and continuing strong exports of Vietnamese cotton yarn to overseas makers, especially China and Turkey. In 2011, for the fifth consecutive year, the United States remains the largest supplier of cotton to Vietnam. Vietnam sourced 133,200 tons (about 41 percent) of its total cotton imports in 2011 from the United States making Vietnam the seventh largest market for U.S. cotton at a value of $369 million. Vietnam exports over 70 percent of the yarn (including cotton yarn) that it produces. Main export markets for Vietnamese cotton yarn are China, Turkey, USA, Korea, Indonesia, Thailand. Table 1: Vietnam’s Cotton Production, Supply and Demand Cotton Vie 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 tnam Market Year Market Year Market Year Begin: Aug 2010 Begin: Aug 2011 Begin: Aug 2012 USDA New USDA New USDA New Official Post Official Post Official Post Area Planted 0 10 0 11 0 10 Area Harvested 9 10 10 11 10 10 Beginning Stocks 375 375 377 315 425 282 Production 22 21 23 24 23 21 Imports 1,630 1,569 1,625 1,624 1,750 1,705 MY Imports from U.S. 0 514 0 717 0 525 Total Supply 2,027 1,965 2,025 1,962 2,198 2,008 Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 Use 1,650 1,650 1,600 1,680 1,750 1,750 Loss 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dom. Cons. 1,650 1,650 1,600 1,680 1,750 1,750 Ending Stocks 377 315 425 282 448 258 Total Distribution 2,027 1,965 2,025 1,962 2,198 2,008 Stock to Use % 23 19 27 17 26 15 Yield 532. 455. 501. 489. 501. 477. TS=TD 0 0 0 Comments Source: FAS, Official USDA Estimates, post estimates Note for unit measures: Planted area/Harvest area: 1,000 ha Stocks/Production/Imports/ MY imports from U.S/ Total Supply/Exports/Use/Total Domestic Consumption/Ending Stocks/Total distribution: 1,000 bales (480-lb bale equivalent to 218-kg bale) PRODUCTION (see Tables 2 and 3 for details) Vietnam’s 2011/12 Cotton Production According to statistical data from the Ministry of Agricultural and Rural Development (MARD), Vietnam’s cotton production in 2011/12 is estimated at 14,200 mt of cotton seed (equivalent to 5,180 mt of cotton lint, 24 thousand bales, at a ginning rate of 36.5 percent), an increase of 10.4 percent compared to 2010/11; this is mainly due to higher cotton yield and increased cotton harvested area. Although harvested area increased it still only reached 11,000 ha in 2011/12. Higher cotton purchase prices led to better economic returns from cotton farming. The increase in cotton acreage occurred in the primary growing regions including the Northwest, the South Central Coast, and the Tay Nguyen Central Highlands, especially in the Tay Nguyen Central Highlands, where the major ginning mills are located. The MARD’s statistical data estimates the average cotton yield of 2011/12 crop at 1.34 mt of cottonseed per hectare. Vietnam’s 2012/13 Cotton Production Since the end of 2011 / early 2012, cotton prices have dropped sharply. At the same time, prices of corn and soybean have been increasing gradually (see the “Prices Section” including the tables 7 and 8 for more details). As such, Post expects farmers to switch from cotton to more profitable crops like corn and soybeans. Post estimates Vietnam’s cotton area in 2012/13 will fall 9.4 percent over the previous year to just 9,600 hectares. MY 2012/13 cotton yield is projected to decrease 2 percent from the previous crop, to about 1.31 mt of cottonseed per hectare. Therefore, Vietnam 2012/13 cotton production is estimated at 12,580 mt of cotton seed or 4,590 mt of cotton fiber (21 thousand bales), a year-on-year reduction of 11.4 percent (see tables 2 and 3 below). Table 2: Vietnam’s Cotton Production (from 2010/11 to 2012/13) 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 (Projected) Crop area (THA) 9.80 10.60 9.60 Crop yield (MT/HA) 1.31 1.34 1.31 Seed cotton production (TMT) 12.84 14.20 12.58 GOR (%) 36.50 36.50 36.50 Cotton fiber production (TMT) 4.69 5.18 4.59 Quantity (1,000 bales, 218kg/bale) 21.49 23.78 21.06 Source: MARD, GSO, other trade sources and Post’s projection Table 3: Vietnam’s cotton production by region, 2010 – 2012 2010 2011 2012* Growing Regions Area Yield Prod. Area Yield Prod. Area Yield Prod. THA MT/HA TMT THA MT/HA TMT THA MT/HA TMT North East 0.82 1.2 0.98 0.90 1.24 1.12 n/a n/a n/a North West 1.80 1.2 2.16 1.90 1.16 2.20 n/a n/a n/a North Central Coast 0.12 1.1 0.13 0.12 1.20 0.14 n/a n/a n/a South Central Coast 0.80 1.6 1.28 1.70 1.63 2.77 n/a n/a n/a Central Highlands 3.90 1.34 5.23 4.12 1.35 5.56 n/a n/a n/a South East 2.40 1.3 3.12 1.85 1.3 2.41 n/a n/a n/a Mekong River Delta 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 n/a n/a n/a Total Vietnam 9.8 1.31 12.90 10.6 1.34 14.20 9.6 1.31 12.58 Source: MARD; General Statistics Office (GSO); and other trade sources. Note: Prod.: Production THA: Thousand Hectares MT/HA: Metric Ton per Hectare TMT: Thousand Metric Tons n/a: not available (*): estimates Cotton production in Vietnam is highly susceptible to weather conditions and can fluctuate widely year- to-year. More than 90 percent of the cotton production area in Vietnam is rain-fed, with planting initiated in the rainy season (May/June – August) and harvesting taking place from October - December. In areas where irrigation is possible, cotton may be planted in the dry season (November/December), thereby allowing for harvesting from March through May. TRADE Calendar year 2011 saw almost an 8 percent decline in the quantity of cotton imports as high prices and the global economic situation resulted in the demand for textiles slowing. U.S. exports in 2009-2011 remained relatively stable, between 132,900 and 141,300 mt. However, Post forecasts the volume of exports in calendar year 2012 to drop below 130,000 mt. Table 4: Import Trade Matrix Country: Vietnam Commodity: Cotton Time Period Imports for: 2009 2010 2011 U.S. 141,300 U.S. 132,900 U.S. 133,200 Others Others Others Africa 53,000 Africa 71,339 Africa 50,000 India 32,000 India 65,917 India 43,000 Brazil 15,083 Brazil 14,893 Brazil 29,000 Pakistan 9,104 Australia 10,364 Pakistan 17,400 UAE 2,878 Pakistan 10,300 Australia 10,800 Australia 1,904 Malaysia 4,647 Malaysia 10,000 Mexico 1,736 CIS 4,030 Argentina 5,800 China 800 Argentina 2,537 China 2,700 Taiwan 750 Mexico 1,070 Mexico 1,850 CIS 700 Taiwan 950 Taiwan 1,100 Total for Others 117,955 186,047 171,650 Others not Listed 40,857 33,953 22,150 Grand Total 300,112 352,900 327,000 Source: Vietnam Customs Department; MARD; World Trade Atlas, Traders & Post’s estimate Unit: Metric Tons In MY 2010/11, Vietnam imported 343,000 tons (or 1.57 million bales) of cotton fiber, valued at over $1 billion. Cotton imports for MY 2011/12 were about 354,000 tons (or 1.623 million bales) for $871 million, a slight increase of 3 percent in quantity but a sharp decrease of 18 percent in value over the previous year due to plummeting world cotton prices (see Tables 7 & 8). Due to the expanding cotton spinning sector, strong exports of yarn to China, and lower prices relative to the last 18 months, Post estimates Vietnam’s cotton imports in 2012/13 to increase by 5 percent to 372,000 tons (1.705 million bales). Table 5: Vietnam’s Monthly Cotton Imports (MY2010/11 and 2011/12) August 2010-July 2011 August 2011-July 2012 Value Value Qty (1000MT) ($ million) Qty (1000MT) ($ million) Aug 32 64 21 58 Sep 31 59 14 53 Oct 24 50 30 80 Nov 23 49 33 93 Dec 30 76 25 63 Jan 37 104 18 47 Feb 29 85 33 77 Mar 38 131 38 86 Apr 29 107 32 73 May 29 121 38 84 Jun 21 82 35 75 Jul 20 78 37 83 TOTAL 343 1007 354 871 Sources: Vietnam General Statistic Office, Vietnam Customs Department, and other trade sources. Vietnam’s Primary Cotton Suppliers According to Table 4, in 2011, Vietnam imported about 327,000 tons of cotton, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 8 percent. The United States remained the number one cotton supplier to Vietnam, with over 41 percent share of Vietnam’s total cotton imports (note: this marked the fifth consecutive year that the U.S. was the leading supplier of cotton to Vietnam). African countries ranked second and India was the third largest supplier. U.S. Cotton Exports to Vietnam In 2011, U.S. cotton exports reached 133,200 tons for a value of $362 million, a year-on-year increase of 0.4 percent in quantity and 45.6 percent in value due to spiking international prices. During Jan-July 2012, U.S. cotton exports were 76,338 mt valued at $161.9 million, a significant reduction of 20 percent in quantity and 41 percent in value (see table 6 below). Several factors in the international cotton market have caused volatility in world prices. Unfortunately, this volatility led some mills and other purchasers in Vietnam to default on contracts with US cotton suppliers. The contract default situation made most U.S. cotton suppliers hesitate to sell cotton to the Vietnam market. This is the main reason for the big drop in U.S. cotton exports to Vietnam in the first seven months of 2012, and the results of that situation will likely restrict exports into 2013. Table 6: U.S. Cotton Exports to Vietnam Jan-July Jan-July 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2011 2012 % change in compared with the same period 2011 Quantity 66.7 125 141.3 132.9 133.2 95.9 76.3 -20 (TMT) Value 88.2 192.6 165.1 248.8 362.3 275.4 161.9 -41 ($ mil.) US Exports of Cotton to Vietnam by Quantity and Value CONSUMPTION Vietnam’s domestic cotton consumption continues to increase in order to meet strong demand from its expanding textile industry. Demand for textiles is strong, for both export and domestic markets. Vietnam is currently home to 100 spinning mills with 5 million spindles (equivalent) for a total capacity of 400,000 tons of fiber. Domestic cotton consumption has been increasing at an average rate of 7-8 percent, per year, for the last five years. Post revises estimated domestic cotton consumption for 2010/11 at 360,400 tons (or 1,650 thousand bales), and for 2011/12 at 366,000 tons (or 1.68 million bales) (see PS&D Table 1). This revision reflects the stronger exports of cotton yarn to overseas markets, especially China and Turkey. Due to strong demand from China and Turkey for Vietnamese cotton yarn, Vietnam cotton yarn exports will continue to increase in 2012/13. This will result in stronger cotton lint demand in 2012/13. Post estimates cotton consumption in 2012/13 at 365,800 tons (or 1.75 million bales), an increase of 4.2 percent over the previous year. STOCKS During 2011, and the first 7 months of 2012, Vietnamese businesses suffered high interest rates on bank loans. The average interest rate in 2011 was 20 percent, while in 2012 it has been about 15-16 percent, which is among the highest in Asia. As a result, cotton users and traders have tried to minimize costs by reducing carry-over stocks of cotton. Ending stocks in 2010/11; 2011/12; and 2012/13 are estimated at 315 thousand bales, 282 thousand bales, and 258 thousand bales, respectively. Stocks-to-use is forecast to fall to 15 percent in 2012/13 as users and traders shed excess inventory. PRICES Fluctuations in cotton prices over the last 18 months have had two effects on the Vietnamese cotton market. Firstly, high prices in 2011 resulted in an expansion in planted area and increased production in MY 2011/12. Secondly, the rapid decline in prices in 2012 -- following their record run up in 2011 -- resulted in a number of contract defaults which affected U.S. cotton exports to Vietnam. Table 6 illustrates the sharp increase in cotton import prices during Jan-Nov 2011 (in comparison to monthly prices in 2010). Import prices reached a staggering $4.17 / kg in May 2011, well over double the price in January 2010. However, beginning in May 2011 prices began to fall and by June 2012 reached $2.14 /kg, the price level in November 2010. Table 7 shows the decline in average cotton import prices during Jan-July 2012. Prices decreased by 35 percent in comparison with prices in Jan-July 2011. This wide fluctuation in prices over the last 18 months has caused great upheaval in the world cotton trade. Worldwide contract defaults grew exponentially as prices reached record highs and then dropped precipitously in 2012. Vietnam is one of a number of countries that had a significant number of cotton contract defaults listed on either the International Cotton Association (ICA) or American Cotton Exporters Association Default lists. Table 7: Cotton Average Import Price in 2010 and 2011 Country: Vietnam Commodity: Cotton Price in USD per Kg 2010 2011 % Change 2011/2010 Jan 1.58 2.81 78 Feb 1.64 2.93 79 Mar 1.67 3.42 105 Apr 1.55 3.69 138 May 1.78 4.17 134 Jun 1.88 3.98 112 Jul 1.97 3.89 97 Aug 2.00 2.76 38 Sep 1.90 3.67 93 Oct 2.08 2.67 28 Nov 2.13 2.84 33 Dec 2.53 2.52 0 Calendar Year Average Price 1.88 3.24 72 Exchange Rate 20,900 Local Currency/US$ Source: Vietnam Customs Department and Vietnam Ministry of Industry & Trade Table 8: Average Cotton Import Price for the first seven months of 2011 and 2012 Prices in USD per kg Year 2011 2012 % Change 2012/2011 Jan 2.81 2.58 -8 Feb 2.93 2.31 -21 Mar 3.42 2.24 -35 Apr 3.69 2.27 -38 May 4.17 2.19 -47 Jun 3.98 2.14 -46 Jul 3.89 2.24 -42 Average Price from Jan-July 3.49 2.26 -35 Source: Vietnam Customs Department and Vietnam Ministry of Industry & Trade Domestic Prices: Presently, the Vietnam Cotton Company (VCC) is buying seed cotton at an average price of VND 12,000/kg, equivalent to $0.576/kg (or 26.2 U.S. cents/lb), a decrease of 29.4 percent in comparison with the previous crop (note: in the previous crop, VCC bought seed cotton at VND 17,000-18,000/kg). VCC is currently selling ginned cotton to mills at $1.97-1.99/kg (89.4-90.3 US cents/lb). However, it is quite difficult for mills to accept these price levels due to the current slump in cotton international prices. Current Offer Prices (based on CNF Ho Chi Minh City, prompt shipment, quoted on Sep 10): Current indicative offer prices ($/kg or US cents/lb) for cotton (quality equivalent to Strict Middling 1.1/8”) from various sources are as follows: West Africa – $1.94/kg (87.9 US cents/lb); USA – $1.95/kg (88.5 US cents/lb); and India-$1.97/kg (89.4 US cents/lb). Table 9 below shows that the U.S. remains competitive in the Vietnamese import market. Table 9: Indicative Cotton Quote Prices CNF Ho Chi Minh City, Prompt Shipment US cents/Lb Indicative Indicative % change in comparison with the prices price price Indicative of March 10, 2011 March 10, March 10, price 2011 2012 Sep 10, 2012 USA 230 102 88.5 -61.5 West Africa 220 105 87.8 -60.1 India 238 99 89.4 -59.0 Source: indicative quote prices from various cotton traders MARKETING/POLICY Tariff on Cotton Cotton has a zero tariff on [cotton lint], but a 10 percent value added tax is assessed. Biotech Policy and Cotton Production Vietnam has identified and approved three crops (cotton, soybeans, and corn) for biotech development in Vietnam. Currently, however, commercial production of those genetically engineered (GE) crops, and trade in GE seeds, is still not yet allowed as the commercialization of GE crops is not yet approved. However, despite the lack of a biosafety certification process, MARD issued the first permission for conducting confined and multi-location field trials of Bt corn to three companies in 2010 and 2011. To date, these trials have not yet resulted in certification of any GE varieties. Although cotton is one of the three crops identified for GE production in Vietnam, to date, no confined or multi-location field trials for cotton have been undertaken. Vietnam Cotton Development Plan for 2015-2020 On January 8, 2010, the Prime Minister signed the Prime Minister’s Decision No. 29/QD-TTg, approving the Vietnam Cotton Development Master Plan for 2015-2020. Table 10 below shows the main targets of this plan. Table 10: Vietnam Cotton Development Plan 2015-2020 2015 2020 Total crop area (THA) 30.00 76.00 Irrigated cotton area (THA) 9.00 40.00 Averaged crop yield (MT/HA) 1.50 2.00 Yield of irrigated cotton (MT/HA) 2.00 2.50 Cotton fiber production (TMT) 20.00 60.00 Quantity (1,000 bales) 91.86 275.57 Under the program, the Government of Vietnam (GOV) will encourage larger-scale cotton farms and intensive cotton farming in order to increase cotton output and cotton quality. The planned key areas for cotton cultivation to include Dak Lak, Dak Nong, and Gia Lai provinces in the Central Highlands; Ninh Thuan, Binh Thuan, Binh Phuoc, Dong Nai, and Ba Ria-Vung Tau in the south-east and central coastal regions; and Dien Bien, Son La, and Bac Giang in the northern region. The GOV plans to establish a fund to help farmers with extension work and cotton price stabilization. Low-interest loans will be made available to cotton farmers. The GOV also plans to invest in building infrastructure and irrigation in cotton growing areas. The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MOIT) has also approved plans for garment & textile development for 2015 and its plan for 2020. Post believes both these plans are ambitious. Previous efforts to promote cotton development have been unsuccessful, due to limited land resources and competition from other crops. Table 11: Vietnam’s Projections for the garment and textile industry to 2020 Description Unit 2010 2015 2020 1. Export value $ million 12,000 18,000 25,000 2. Number of employees Thousand persons 2,500 2,750 3,000 3. Key products - cotton lint 1000 mt 20 40 60 - Fiber, polyester yarn 1000 mt 120 210 300 - all kind of yarn 1000 mt 350 500 650 - all kind of fabrics million m2 1.000 1.500 2.000 - Garment products million pieces 1.800 2.850 4.000 4. for domestic market % 50 60 70
Posted: 21 October 2012

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