Import, export of steel from/to Ukraine 2011-2012
In 2012 the excess capacities in international steel industry will amount to 493 million tons per year. It is about one third of steel production in 2010 (amounted to 1.5 billion).
Thus, we believe that the export-oriented metallurgy of Ukraine will face significant difficulties with the sale of its steel. Unfortunately, in 2011 the share of semi-processed products in the structure of Ukrainian export still remained high - 46, 7% (in 2010 – 48,%, 2009 – 51,2%).
Totally in 2011 22.6 million tons of ferrous metal were exported from Ukraine, which is 4,4% less than in 2010.
Except for the EU and CIS countries, where the Ukrainian steel sales had grown, in other regions their volumes significantly decreased. The causes of losses in different regions were various. In Asia, for example, Ukrainian metallurgists had to enter into competition with cheap Chinese products. Turkey and Middle East increased the output of its own steel production. In North Africa the shipments of steel from Ukraine were negatively affected by political instability in the first half of 2011 and further falling of steel consumption.
Partially, Ukrainian losses on the eastern markets were compensated for more expensive EU market. Last year, domestic steel producers managed to increase the shipments into this region by 11%.
According to the forecasts, in 2012 the exports of steel products from Ukraine will grow by 2-4%, while prices will decrease by 5-8%. The average price of domestic square billet, according to some analysts, will decrease to 595-605 US dollars per 1 tone (FOB), slabs - up to 588-600 US dollars per 1 ton, hot-rolled coils - up to 640-645 US dollars per 1 ton.
Perspective markets will be North Africa and India, which, in contrast to China, does not manage to meet their own needs in the metal. Worth noting, that in 2011 domestic consumption of steel products increased by 34.7% up to 9.5 million tons (in 2010 compared to 2009 – by 38%).
The highest growth in consumer demand was observed at the end of 2011 due to the activation in implementing projects related to the preparations for Euro 2012.
As for imports, its share in satisfying internal demand was 19%. It started to grow still in 2005-2008, when the rate of consumption in Ukraine intensified and resulted in the increase of the volumes of steel imports from 0.8 million tons in 2005 to 2.2 million tons in 2008.
STEEL PRODUCTION IN UKRAINE (million ton)
UKRAINIAN STEEL EXPORT (million ton)
Europe (not EC)
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