Poultry and Products Semi-annual

An Expert's View about Poultry in Brazil

Posted on: 29 Feb 2012

The increase in broiler production is mostly driven by domestic demand and a small recovery in exports.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 14/2/2012 GAIN Report Number: BR 0801 Brazil Poultry and Products Semi-annual Poultry Report Approved By: Robert Hoff, Agricultural Counselor Prepared By: Joao F Silva, Agricultural Specialist Report Highlights: Post revised downward broiler production estimates for 2012 to 13.3 million metric tons, still a new record and up 3 percent from 2011. The increase in production is mostly driven by domestic demand and a small recovery in exports. It reflects a conservative estimate by our industry sources in view of world economic uncertainties impacting some major Brazilian export markets, as well as some issues with some trade partners. Post also revised 2011 broiler and turkey production estimates to reflect final production and export data. Page 1 Commodities: Poultry, Meat, Broiler Production: Broiler production is now estimated to grow by only 3 percent in 2012, as compared to an initial forecast of 5 percent growth. Production estimated at 13.3 million metric tons reflects the current view of industry leaders given the world economic uncertainties derived from the European Union financial crisis and its impact on Brazilian broiler export markets. In addition, the production growth has slowed due to an overvalued Brazilian currency and restrictions from trade partners. Another important factor is a slowdown in the rate of growth of domestic consumption combined with higher costs of production due to higher corn prices. Post revised 2011 broiler production to 12.8 million metric tons, 4.5 percent higher than 2010 to show new data obtained from the industry. Consumption: Domestic consumption of broiler meat in 2012 is projected to increase by 3 percent to 9.9 million metric tons, which is below our initial forecast of 10.1 million metric tons. Post’s estimate reflects continuing increases in disposable income of Brazilian consumers. Broiler meat still remains the most affordable lower-income consumers compared to beef and pork. However, high debt-to-income ratios among Brazilian consumers have been reported as a growing concern among our trade contacts. This situation could inhibit further increases in consumption. Trade: Post also revised downward from 5 to 3 percent the outlook for broiler exports in 2012. The growth in exports is likely to be driven by higher sales of whole broilers in general, and chicken parts, in particular, to China and Hong Kong. Trade sources also expect higher exports to Egypt and Iraq. Nonetheless, Brazilian exporters have currently three major concerns affecting the outlook for broiler exports in 2012: 1) the continued overvaluation of the Brazilian currency, although this factor did not prevent record exports last year; 2) uncertainties derived from the world financial crisis, mostly in Europe, and its impact on importing markets; and 3) specific issues with major trading partners such as the Russian Federation (slow relisting of Brazilian poultry plants) and South Africa (application of antidumping tariffs on Brazilian broiler of 62.92% on whole broilers and 46.59% on chicken parts). South Africa was the 7th largest market for Brazilian broiler exports in 2011 with shipments of 195,416 metric tons (PWE). Post updated trade data for 2011 to include final official export numbers. In 2011, the total volume of broiler meat exports, including chicken feet and paws, reached 3.7 million metric tons, an increase of 3.3 percent from 2010. However, the value of exports increased by 22 percent to US$ 7.6 billion due to the increase in the average price of broiler meat in the world market. Page 2 Broiler export markets with major increases in 2011 were China (up 61%), followed by Angola (up 38%) and Iraq (up 28%), while markets with major declines were the Russian Federation (down 58%) and Egypt (down 42%). The decline in exports to the Russian Federation was a result of significant number of Brazilian poultry plants delisted by Russian officials, while the decline in Egypt was due to logistical problems associated with the political instability in the country last year. Note: The S&D table excludes chicken feet and paws exports to China and Hong Kong, as per USDA export methodology. Page 3 Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Poultry, Meat, Broiler Brazil 2010 2011 2012 Market Year Begin: Jan 2010 Market Year Begin: Jan 2011 Market Year Begin: Jan 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Inventory (Reference) 50 0 54 53 55 55 Slaughter (Reference) 6,050 0 6,352 6,305 6,670 6,495 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 Production 12,312 0 12,954 12,863 13,602 13,250 Total Imports 1 0 1 1 1 1 Total Supply 12,313 0 12,955 12,864 13,603 13,251 Total Exports 3,181 0 3,300 3,219 3,465 3,315 Human Consumption 9,132 0 9,655 9,645 10,138 9,936 Other Use, Losses 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dom. Consumption 9,132 0 9,655 9,645 10,138 9,936 Total Use 12,313 0 12,955 12,864 13,603 13,251 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Distribution 12,313 0 12,955 12,864 13,603 13,251 MIL HEAD, 1000 MT, PERCENT, PEOPLE, KG Page 4 Export Trade Matrix Country Brazil Commodity Poultry, Meat, Broiler Time Per iod Jan-Dec Units: Metric Tons Exports for: 2010 2011 U .S. 0 U.S. 0 Others Others Angola 71.816 99.491 Canada 19.728 12.491 China 121.522 195.844 Cuba 39.293 35.085 Egypt 124.451 72.075 European Union 281.878 296.749 Hong Kong 331.466 339.364 Ghana 27.729 37.544 Iran 44.984 40.400 Iraq 104.469 132.590 Japan 386.476 444.346 Jordan 51.179 42.341 Kuwait 174.670 155.024 Oman 45.015 50.161 Phillippines 18.806 24.230 Qatar 48.771 52.891 Russian Federation 144.328 60.366 Romania 12.628 12.018 Saudi Arabia 550.969 622.643 Singapore 72.312 63.849 South Africa 181.445 195.416 South Korea 32.674 25.562 UAE 208.333 214.771 Yemen 64.232 51.983 Venezuela 164.408 176.641 Total for Others 3.323.582 3.453.875 O thers not Listed 306.019 295.836 Grand To tal 3.629.601 3.749.711 Note: Includes HTS Codes: 0207 .11; 0207.12; 0207.13; 0207.14; and 1602.32 Quantity in Product Weight Equivalent (PWE) Updated February 10, 2012 Page 5 Commodities: Poultry, Meat, Turkey Production: Post also updated 2011 data to reflect final numbers for production and trade. The outlook for 2012 remains unchanged. Page 6 Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Poultry, Meat, Turkey Brazil 2010 2011 2012 Market Year Begin: Jan 2010 Market Year Begin: Jan 2011 Market Year Begin: Jan 2012 USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Inventory (Reference) 0 0 0 0 0 0 Slaughter (Reference) 45 0 46 45 47 46 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 Production 485 0 505 500 531 525 Total Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 485 0 505 500 531 525 Total Exports 158 0 140 141 142 145 Human Consumption 327 0 365 359 389 380 Other Use, Losses 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dom. Consumption 327 0 365 359 389 380 Total Use 485 0 505 500 531 525 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Distribution 485 0 505 500 531 525 MIL HEAD, 1000 MT, PERCENT, PEOPLE, KG Page 7 Export Trade Matrix Country Brazil Commodity Poultry, Mea t, Turkey Time Period Jan-Dec Units: Metric Tons Exports for: 2010 2011 U.S. 0 U.S. 0 Others Others Angola 9.326 9.483 Argentina 1.260 1.997 Benin 8.901 10.994 Congo 3.356 4.022 Congo, D.R. 1.610 1.223 Gabon 2.882 1.643 Guinea, E. 2.266 3.316 European Union 87.241 74.738 Hong Kong 2.499 1.527 Peru 2.567 1.805 Russian Federation 7.923 7.290 Saudi Arabia 1.262 1.389 South Africa 16.006 11.608 Switzerland 2.791 2.662 Total for Others 149.890 133.697 Others not Listed 7.930 7.476 Grand Total 157.820 141.173 Note: It includes HTS Codes: 0 2072400; 0207 2500; 02072 600; 02072700; 16023100. Quantity in Product Weight Equivalent (PWE) Updated February 10, 2012 Page 8
Posted: 29 February 2012

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