THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 3/2/2011 GAIN Report Number: RS1108 Russian Federation Poultry and Products Semi-annual Consumption Falls as Production Unlikely to Compensate for Reduced TRQ in 2011 Approved By: Scott Reynolds Prepared By: Morgan Haas, Mikhail Maksimenko Report Highlights: The 350,000 MT poultry TRQ for 2011 will decrease Russian broiler imports 40 percent compared to 2010. High feed prices, constrained poultry processing capacity, and flat farm-gate poultry prices will slow investment and production growth in 2011. The result will likely be a net reduction in 2011 poultry consumption, accompanied by higher retail prices for cuts and processed poultry. Furthermore, USDA-Moscow adjusted its historical PS&D estimates since the beginning of the data series to reflect revised assumptions in estimation methodology. Summary The 350,000-MT poultry TRQ for 2011 will decrease Russian broiler imports 40 percent compared to 2010. High feed prices, constrained poultry processing capacity, and flat farm-gate poultry prices will slow investment and production growth in 2011. The result will likely be a net reduction in 2011 poultry consumption, accompanied by higher retail prices for cuts and processed poultry. Furthermore, USDA-Moscow adjusted its historical PS&D estimates since the beginning of the data series to reflect revised assumptions in estimation methodology. Table 1. Russia: Broiler Production, Supply & Demand, 1,000 MT (ready-to-cook) 2009 2010 2011 Poultry, Meat, B MY Begin: Jan 2009 MY Begin: Jan 2010 MY Begin: Jan 2011 roiler Rus USDA New USDA New USDA New sia Official Post Official Post Official Post Beginning Stocks 54 54 32 32 31 31 Production 1,790 2,058 2,000 2,312 2,125 2,520 Whole, Imports 41 41 15 22 15 8 Parts, Imports 872 872 460 596 585 367 Total Imports 913 913 475 618 600 375 Total Supply 2,757 3,025 2,507 2,962 2,756 2,926 Whole, Exports 1 1 0 1 0 2 Parts, Exports 6 3 10 4 2 6 Total Exports 7 4 10 5 2 8 Human Consumption 2,718 2,989 2,466 2,926 2,720 2,886 Other Use, Losses 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dom. 2,718 2,989 2,466 2,926 2,720 2,886 Consumption Total Use 2,725 2,993 2,476 2,931 2,722 2,894 Ending Stocks 32 32 31 31 34 32 Total Distribution 2,757 3,025 2,507 2,962 2,756 2,926 Note: New Post estimates incorporate a new methodology of calculation in this report; use caution when comparing to USDA Official figures. Table 2. Russia: Turkey Production, Supply & Demand, 1,000 MT (ready-to-cook) 2009 2010 2011 Poultry, Meat, Tu MY Begin: Jan 2009 MY Begin: Jan 2010 MY Begin: Jan 2011 rkey Russ USDA New USDA New USDA New ia Official Post Official Post Official Post Beginning Stocks 3 0 0 0 0 0 Production 40 31 45 62 55 90 Whole, Imports 0 0 0 2 0 0 Parts, Imports 41 41 25 33 10 10 Total Imports 41 41 25 35 10 10 Total Supply 84 72 70 97 65 100 Human Consumption 84 72 70 97 65 100 Total Dom. 84 72 70 97 65 100 Consumption Total Use 84 72 70 97 65 100 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Distribution 84 72 70 97 65 100 Note: New Post estimates incorporate a new methodology of calculation in this report; use caution when comparing to USDA Official figures. Production Meat and poultry production According to the Russian Union of Poultry Producers (RUPP), 2010 poultry production totaled 2.9 MMT (slaughter weight), which exceeds the 2009 level by 275,000 MT, and represents 40 percent of all domestically produced animal protein. Broiler production Domestic broiler production is expected to increase 9 percent in 2011, compared to 12 percent in 2010. Low grain yield and high grain prices are contributing to rising feed costs and hurting profits and new investment in the broiler industry. As a result, RUPP has demanded more government assistance in controlling grain prices in addition to more protection from imports. In 2010, the poultry industry attracted RUR65.1 billion ($2.16 billion) in investment, including RUR48.8 billion ($1.63 billion) financed with credit. Respectively, these figures were 35 percent and 26 percent higher than 2009. The majority of this investment credit is subsidized from state and regional budgets. Russia?s Poultry and Poultry Products magazine reports slaughter and processing facilities have had difficulty absorbing the production growth in recent years. In order to allow further production growth, the Ministry of Agriculture put forward the Program ?Development of Poultry Breeding in 2010-2012 and until 2020,? which envisions the renovation and new construction of slaughter and processing facilities in order to add an additional 7,800 MT of poultry slaughter capacity per shift. Renovated facilities will contribute 4,100 MT and new constructions will contribute 3,620 MT. Also according to RUPP, the five largest poultry producers are as follows: Prioskoliye (353,000 MT, 15% of Russian poultry production); Cherkizovo (173,000, 7%); Belgrankorm (148,000, 6%); Prodo- Trend (147,000, 6%); Belaya Ptitsa (73,000, 3%). Prioskoliye declared construction of poultry facility of 90,000 MT production capacity (live weight) and RUR8.5 bln ($280 million) worth in Tambov oblast. Cherkizovo plans to build a poultry production facility in Lipetsk oblast. After the project is launched, Cherkizovo?s poultry production will total 230,000 MT in eight years. The new production facility will consist of a hatchery, 336 poultry raising houses, slaughter and processing facilities and a feed mill. The project value is about RUR18 billion ($600 million), 80 percent of which will be subsidized bank loans. Rusagro plans to build a poultry production facility of 100,000 MT poultry annual production (live weight) in Tambov oblast. The projected production capacity is about RUR18 bln ($600 million). Chelyabinsk oblast will support construction of four poultry establishments and will allocate RUR 5.5 billion ($180 million) into it. It will help the region to double poultry production to 340,000 MT live weight annually after the project is launched. Turkey production Turkey production will grow 45 percent in 2011, compared to 100.0 percent growth in 2010. High feed prices will keep production growth at a slower pace in 2011. Russian turkey breeders plan to increase turkey production to 122,000 MT by 2012, as heavy investments are coming into this industry. At the beginning of 2010, Russia?s Poultry and Poultry Products magazine reported the largest turkey producers were as follows: Eurodon, Krasnobor, Krasnobor_N, Sibirskaya Guberniya, M. Gaufuri, Zadonskaya, Egoriyevskaya, Poshekhonskaya, and Mars. Eurodon has since started producing turkey hatching eggs in Rostov oblast on the scale of 6.2 million eggs annually. Eurodon also plans to build a facility with 60,000 MT (live weight) production capacity in Rostov oblast by 2012, valued at RUR18 billion ($600 million). Feed supply Some domestic poultry producers are having difficulties coping with feed prices, which have increased 200-300 percent since January 2010. Producers indicate this translated into production costs growing about RUR10/kilogram of meat. In December 2010, RUPP appealed to the Russian government (GOR) requesting subsidies for domestic poultry producers be included in the 2011 budget. The funds would be used to reimburse the poultry industry for feed costs in the first half of the year at the amount of about RUR5/kilogram of poultry meat (live weight). The industry feels that without direct subsidies the prices for poultry meat will increase, customers will decrease poultry consumption, poultry farms will reduce production, and some of them may go bankrupt by the summer of 2011. The GOR has not yet responded to this request. To combat feed prices, the GOR has moved forward with plans to sell and distribute grain from the state intervention fund. The plan calls for the sale of 2.5 MMT of grain from the intervention fund on the grain stock exchange. Sales started on February 4, 2011, and caused prices to decrease to approximately RUR6,150/MT for barley from RUR8,800/MT. By the end of June 2011, the GOR plans to distribute 900,000 MT of grain at reduced prices for meat and poultry producers. As an additional measure of support, the GOR has also lowered the freight rates for the transportation of grain and soybeans. Trade Imports Russia continues to increase protection of its domestic poultry industry from imports with stricter tariff and non-tariff barriers that come into effect each and every year. The overall decline in 2010 poultry imports was caused not only by the reduced quota but also by the chlorine restrictions Russia implemented on 1/1/2010 that shut out the United States for three-quarters of the year. As a result, Russia imported only 79 percent of the 780,000 MT TRQ. Imports were further restricted for 2011 when the GOR lowered the 2011 TRQ volume to 350,000 MT from the earlier announced quantity of 600,000 MT. While RUPP generally favors the elimination of the poultry quota, not all poultry producers/processors or GOR officials believe Russia can do without imports. Due to consumption patterns, Russia will remain an attractive market for poultry imports for the next several years, particularly for affordable and frozen poultry cuts that do not compete against domestically produced chilled whole birds. In 2011, a smaller and redefined poultry TRQ will focus imports more than they have in the past on chicken leg quarters and mechanically deboned meat (MDM). While large shipments of chicken leg quarters imported at the end of 2010 continue to work their way though inventory in the first quarter of 2011, imports are expected to pick up again in the summer. A new trend witnessed so far in 2011 is the profitability of exporting MDM from Europe to Russia at over-quota duty rates (80 percent, but not less than 0.7 Euro/kilogram). Restricted quota access and high prices will continue to support this activity throughout the year and into the future. An additional 15,000 MT quota Russia has provided for Belarus will likely replace a large portion of the imported whole birds previously sourced from Brazil. In 2010, broiler imports decreased 22 percent by volume and 20 percent by value at the same time to 618,000 MT and $822 million respectively. Broiler cuts accounted for 95 percent of the broiler meat shipped to Russia. The United States, Brazil, Germany and France were the largest broiler exporters to Russia. They shipped, respectively, 294,920 MT, 137,468 MT, 90,586 MT and 24,984 MT of broiler meat in 2010. Turkey meat imports decreased 12 percent by volume and 2 percent by value in 2010 compared to 2009. Exports Broiler meat exports will increase to 6,000 MT in 2011 from 4,000 MT in 2010. Total Russian poultry exports increased to 19,167 MT in 2010, three-fold compared to 2009. Most exports are represented by chicken paws to Hong Kong and Vietnam. Yelena Skrynnik, Russian Minister of Agriculture, noted that agricultural export development is a strategic area of growth for Russia's agro-food sector. Given the pace of the poultry production growth the GOR and producers are looking to increase poultry exports. At a session of the GOR in November 2010, participants considered measures that should be taken in order to increase state support for exporters and the promotion of Russian poultry products in international markets. Federal executive agencies are looking at potential exports of this product to outside markets, including CIS countries, China, the Middle East, North Africa, and South-East Asia. The Russian and Kazakh poultry producers? associations met at the end of January 2011 and signed a Memorandum of Cooperation on the possibility of Russian poultry exports to Kazakhstan in 2011, according to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture continues exploring opportunities to export poultry to Europe and, in its efforts, plans to continue the harmonization of its veterinary and sanitary requirements with the rules and norms of the European Union. Russia is also looking at poultry exports to Canada. In connection, Canadian veterinary authorities will inspect Russian poultry facilities. Consumption Poultry consumption will fall in 2011 as production fails to make up for cuts to the TRQ and domestic processors fail to attract consumers at current retail prices. While whole birds continue to saturate the market, consumer demand for processed poultry products is growing rapidly. To satisfy this demand, poultry producers are being encouraged to install processing lines to allow further processing of poultry carcasses. Graph 1. Russia: Poultry Utilization, 1,000 MT, 2009-2020 Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Program of Poultry Breeding Development 2010-2012 and until 2020 In order to stimulate consumption, producers believe that the GOR should support poultry demand. It can be in the shape of social food cards, as well as direct payments for low income population. Stocks Russian experts believe it is necessary to change the proportion of meat products purchased for Russia?s reserve fund in order to support the poultry industry. Supporters led by Meat Union Russia have called for substituting canned white (domestic) chicken meat for the beef products which have been traditionally purchased by the GOR. The Russian Government is currently considering such a measure. Prices Inflation for meat and poultry products in Russia has been relatively low compared to past years. Due to high feed costs, the retail market received short-term price relief from accelerated slaughter rates from red meat producers in 2010, and the rush of imports at the end of 2010 will steady the market with inventory through the first quarter of 2011. However, price growth is expected to return in the second quarter of 2011 as a consequence of earlier herd culling and as supplies imported under the 2010 quota are consumed. Average farm-gate prices decreased 2.5 percent by the end of 2010 year on year, while processers and retail prices increased 2.0 percent at the same time. However, the real market participant that was pinched in 2010 was the processor that does not raise poultry. As witnessed in 2009 when credit problems squeezed purchase orders, the GOR?s restrictions against U.S. poultry severely handicapped the market of necessary supply and drove up raw material prices until product began arriving in large volume in October. Even then, many individuals were forced to import product at losses just to retain historical quota share for future years. In the end, only large, fully integrated domestic producer/processors benefited from the GOR measures on chlorine. Graph 2. Russia: Poultry Prices, RUR/kilogram Source: Ministry of Agriculture, www.cri.mcx.ru Reduced supply of chicken leg quarters, most of which come from the United States, brought about significant volatility in 2010. Prices rose from RUR90/kilogram ($3.00) in the spring to RUR130 ($4.30) by the end of the summer. Following the resumption of U.S. poultry exports at that time, prices remained volatile and importers generally lost money in an attempt to retain quota share for future years. Production Tables Table 3. Russia: Poultry Production, by Category, 1,000 MT (slaughter weight) 2012/2009 2009 2010 2011 2012 % +/- Total, all categories of farms 2,540 2,855 3,055 3,255 128 +715 --Agricultural enterprises (poultry farm) 2,225 2,540 2,735 2,935 132 +710 ----Broilers 2,050 2,320 2,487 2,635 129 +585 ----Technological culling chicken egg layers and meat 143 154 158 165 115 +22 crosses ----Turkey 31 62 81 122 400 +91 ----Duck 0.5 3 8 10 +9.5 2,000 ----Geese 0.5 1 1 3 600 +2.5 --Share of agricultural enterprises in the total production 88 89 89.5 90 102 +2 --Households, private farms 315 315 320 320 102 +5 --Share of private households, private farm and farms in 12 11 10.5 10 83 -2 total production Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Program of Poultry Breeding Development 2010-2012 Table 4. Russia: Construction and Renovation of Slaughter Houses, MT/shift, 2010-2020 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 202 Tota 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 l Total 1,00 800 800 800 800 800 800 600 600 400 400 7,80 0 0 Including : Renovati 550 440 440 440 440 440 440 330 330 220 220 4,18 on 0 New 450 360 360 360 360 360 360 270 270 180 180 3,62 0 Source: Poultry and Poultry Products magazine, #1, 2011 Trade Tables Table 5. Russia: Imports, Poultry Meat and Edible Offal (0207), by Commodity Comm 2008 2009 2010 o Description dity USD MT USD MT USD MT TOTAL 1,339,317,62 1,217,58 1,064,212,05 948,45 862,806,58 650,43 7 7 8 9 1 2 Chicken, Cuts/Offal, 1,123,973,21 1,073,98 861,59 749,681,45 586,63 020714 F 926,197,814 rozen 8 4 2 9 0 Turkey, Cuts/Offal, 020727 F 107,296,347 63,760 60,552,999 37,558 58,138,386 31,669 rozen Chicken, Whole, 020712 F 93,913,004 71,622 62,960,969 41,282 33,310,985 21,729 rozen Ducks/Geese/Guineas 020733 8,541,082 4,006 9,475,346 4,276 15,440,781 6,799 , Whole, Frozen Turkeys, Whole, 020725 F 2,166,648 987 1,584,055 708 3,107,032 1,368 rozen Duck/Geese/Guinea, 020736 Cut 2,080,035 600 s/Offal, F 1,552,217 598 1,787,224 645 rozen Turkey Cuts/Offal, 020726 Fr 1,693,168 2,610 1,447,007 2,374 823,032 1,611 esh/Chilled Source: GTIS Table 6. Russia: Imports, Broiler Meat, by Country 008 2009 2010 Partner Co 2untry USD MT USD MT USD MT World 1,267,136,493 1,158,937 1,027,472,844 913,216 822,393,382 618,445 United States 810,982,757 841,552 714,580,563 694,357 330,974,864 294,920 Brazil 267,231,055 161,780 122,850,435 66,147 241,716,930 137,468 Germany 78,738,929 71,715 85,846,646 82,832 109,308,508 90,586 France 65,952,816 38,120 70,252,348 40,482 44,764,628 24,984 Denmark 5,362,567 3,830 9,341,142 6,187 26,082,007 19,568 Netherlands 8,135,323 8,959 7,623,276 7,474 20,525,995 14,708 Poland 2,096,162 2,351 1,622,450 2,297 10,226,913 7,570 Argentina 6,320,736 5,342 6,743,556 4,727 9,811,031 6,821 Belgium 9,101,619 10,157 1,390,338 1,444 8,291,260 6,310 Canada 4,101,886 6,622 2,139,092 3,039 5,322,236 4,092 Finland 3,372,530 3,539 1,085,918 720 4,793,650 3,726 Hungary 1,280,634 1,276 1,054,755 1,036 4,246,108 3,071 Spain 1,909,536 2,039 1,030,535 1,169 1,884,118 1,364 Source: GTIS Table 7. Russia: Imports, Turkey Meat, by Countries 2008 2009 2010 Partner Country USD MT USD MT USD MT World 112,828 67,827 65,164 40,992 64,400 35,120 Brazil 43,115,477 13,192 17,210 5,701 28,110 8,177 France 21,902,991 22,469 14,946,826 15,547 13,701,415 11,313 Germany 11,869,811 12,667 6,334,674 6,737 13,386,019 9,042 Belgium 5,916,562 5,735,066 4,809,850 5,118 3,598,369 3,998 Source: GTIS Table 8. Russia: Exports, Broiler Meat, by Commodity 2008 2009 2010 Commodity Description USD MT USD MT USD MT TOTAL 9,143,595 4,778 7,700,856 6,529 18,743,542 19,167 020714 Chicken Cuts/Offal, Frozen 1,766,768 1,020 4,089,497 4,898 14,383,356 17,202 020712 Chicken, Whole, Frozen 3,838,330 1,760 2,021,027 970 2,847,443 1,419 160232 Chicken, Prepared/ Preserved 3,523,406 1,993 1,589,597 660 1,512,152 546 Source: GTIS Table 9. Russia: Exports, Broiler Meat, by Country 2008 2009 2010 Partner Country USD MT USD MT USD MT World 9,143,595 4,778 7,700,856 6,529 18,743,542 19,167 Hong Kong 0 0 678,626 1,236 6,082,878 8,420 Vietnam 120,446 287 1,427,830 2,584 4,794,752 6,676 Kazakhstan 3,249,869 1,524 1,607,108 934 3,635,962 2,051 Abkhazia 660,120 283 2,709,471 1,312 2,028,284 927 Azerbaijan 505,788 96 514,174 111 637,176 139 United States 78,909 68 0 0 505,602 399 Ukraine 2,239,610 1,547 208,463 101 334,608 156 Tajikistan 9,632 19 200,464 65 266,293 92 Source: GTIS Table 10. Russia: Broiler Production, Supply & Demand, 1,000 MT (ready-to-cook), 1989-2008 Poultry, 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Meat, Broiler Off. New Off. New Off. New Off. New Off. New Off. New Off. New Off. New Off. New Off. New Off. New Off. New Off. New Off. New Off. New Off. New Off. New Off. New Off. New Off. New Rus USDA Post USDA Post USDA Post USDA Post USDA Post USDA Post USDA Post USDA Post USDA Post USDA Post USDA Post USDA Post USDA Post USDA Post USDA Post USDA Post USDA Post USDA Post USDA Post USDA Post sia Beg. Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 120 0 130 0 90 0 80 0 59 0 53 0 45 0 Production 991 815 984 810 978 660 785 630 540 575 440 520 340 455 290 390 200 355 280 365 350 375 380 410 430 485 500 565 560 645 650 770 900 950 1180 1180 1350 1410 1550 1680 Imports 298 298 271 271 107 107 45 45 146 146 475 475 855 855 1088 1088 1266 1266 1020 1020 930 930 943 943 1281 1281 1208 1208 1081 1081 1016 1016 1225 1225 1189 1189 1222 1222 1159 1159 --Whole 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 45 45 39 39 65 65 79 79 53 53 27 27 32 32 70 70 150 150 0 0 60 60 90 90 85 85 90 90 75 75 --Parts 298 298 271 271 107 107 45 45 146 146 430 430 816 816 1023 1023 1187 1187 967 967 903 903 911 911 1211 1211 1058 1058 1081 1081 956 956 1135 1135 1104 1104 1132 1132 1084 1084 Tot. Supply 1289 1113 1255 1081 1085 767 830 675 686 721 915 995 1195 1310 1378 1478 1466 1621 1300 1385 1280 1305 1323 1353 1711 1766 1828 1773 1771 1726 1756 1786 2205 2175 2428 2369 2625 2632 2754 2839 Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 13 13 5 5 3 3 1 1 3 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 7 7 2 2 2 2 5 5 --Whole 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 --Parts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 12 12 4 4 2 2 0 0 2 2 2 2 0 0 1 1 1 1 7 7 2 2 2 2 5 5 Slaughter 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Inventory 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Dom. Cons. 1289 1113 1255 1081 1085 767 830 675 686 721 913 993 1193 1308 1365 1465 1461 1616 1297 1382 1279 1304 1320 1350 1588 1763 1697 1772 1680 1725 1675 1785 2139 2168 2373 2367 2578 2630 2695 2834 --Human 1289 1113 1255 1081 1085 767 830 675 686 721 893 993 1163 1308 1340 1465 1436 1616 1272 1382 1254 1304 1295 1350 1570 1763 1675 1772 1680 1725 1675 1785 2139 2168 2373 2367 2578 2630 2695 2834 --Other 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 0 30 0 25 0 25 0 25 0 25 0 25 0 18 0 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Use 1289 1113 1255 1081 1085 767 830 675 686 721 915 995 1195 1310 1378 1478 1466 1621 1300 1385 1280 1305 1323 1353 1591 1766 1698 1773 1681 1726 1676 1786 2146 2175 2375 2369 2580 2632 2700 2839 End. Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 120 0 130 0 90 0 80 0 59 0 53 0 45 0 54 0 Tot. Dist. 1289 1113 1255 1081 1085 767 830 675 686 721 915 995 1195 1310 1378 1478 1466 1621 1300 1385 1280 1305 1323 1353 1711 1766 1828 1773 1771 1726 1756 1786 2205 2175 2428 2369 2625 2632 2754 2839 Note: New Post estimates incorporate a new methodology of calculation in this report; use caution when comparing to USDA Official figures. Table 11. Russia: Turkey Production, Supply & Demand, 1,000 MT (ready-to-cook), 1989-2008 Poultry, 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Meat, Turkey Off. New Off. New Off. New Off. New Off. New Off. New Off. New Off. New Off. New Off. New Off. New Off. New Off. New Off. New Off. New Off. New Off. New Off. New Off. New Off. New Rus USDA Post USDA Post USDA Post USDA Post USDA Post USDA Post USDA Post USDA Post USDA Post USDA Post USDA Post USDA Post USDA Post USDA Post USDA Post USDA Post USDA Post USDA Post USDA Post USDA Post sia Beg. Stocks n/a n/a n/a n/a 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Production n/a n/a n/a n/a 45 8 37 7 35 6 30 5 25 3 20 2 12 2 9 1 8 1 7 1 7 3 9 5 12 8 15 9 17 11 19 16 25 30 37 39 Imports n/a n/a n/a n/a 0 0 2 2 4 4 28 28 83 83 108 108 151 151 147 147 161 161 163 163 164 164 165 165 114 114 97 97 107 107 91 91 75 75 68 68 --Whole n/a n/a n/a n/a 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 2 2 3 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 5 0 0 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 --Parts n/a n/a n/a n/a 0 0 2 2 4 4 28 28 79 79 106 106 148 148 144 144 160 160 162 162 163 163 160 160 114 114 95 95 106 106 91 91 75 75 68 68 Tot. Supply n/a n/a n/a n/a 45 8 39 9 39 10 58 33 108 86 128 110 163 153 156 148 169 162 170 164 171 167 174 170 126 122 112 106 124 118 110 107 100 105 105 107 Exports n/a n/a n/a n/a 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 --Whole n/a n/a n/a n/a 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 --Parts n/a n/a n/a n/a 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Slaughter n/a n/a n/a n/a 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Inventory n/a n/a n/a n/a 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Dom. Cons. n/a n/a n/a n/a 45 8 39 9 39 10 58 33 108 86 128 110 163 153 156 148 169 162 170 164 171 167 174 170 126 122 112 106 124 118 110 107 100 105 102 107 --Human n/a n/a n/a n/a 45 8 38 9 38 10 57 33 107 86 127 110 161 153 155 148 168 162 169 164 170 167 173 170 125 122 111 106 123 118 109 107 99 105 102 107 --Other n/a n/a n/a n/a 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 Total Use n/a n/a n/a n/a 45 8 39 9 39 10 58 33 108 86 128 110 163 153 156 148 169 162 170 164 171 167 174 170 126 122 112 106 124 118 110 107 100 105 102 107 End. Stocks n/a n/a n/a n/a 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 Tot. Dist. n/a n/a n/a n/a 45 8 39 9 39 10 58 33 108 86 128 110 163 153 156 148 169 162 170 164 171 167 174 170 126 122 112 106 124 118 110 107 100 105 105 107 Note: New Post estimates incorporate a new methodology of calculation in this report; use caution when comparing to USDA Official figures.